NBA Switch and Hedge with Chris Spags: Joel Embiid and Nov. 12 NBA DFS Picks (FREE)

Even though we’re in the early stages of the NBA season, we have another day of injuries and absences to sort through for today’s NBA DFS picks. With a bigger than usual for a Tuesday slate of eight games, we have guys like Al Horford, De’Aaron Fox, and Caris LeVert out. We also have the possibility other guys are ruled out due to back-to-backs, something to watch throughout the day. The slate seems to set up nicely with a mix of potential value and players with big upside so hopefully we can find an edge amidst all the chalk. So let’s dig into it as I tell you all about the NBA DFS picks (Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic) and angles I’m most interested in in today’s Switch and Hedge.


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As always in the NBA DFS Switch and Hedge, I’ll run through some of the key angles I see on tonight’s slate as of 10:00 AM on the West Coast. Tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.

Chalk Joel Embiid NBA DFS Picks

I’m inclined to start the majority of my lineups with Joel Embiid tonight. Al Horford has already been ruled out on a rest day. Ben Simmons remains questionable. But even if Simmons is in, Embiid has been his best self in court time without Horford. Embiid has 1.9 FPPM in court time without Horford. And this matchup versus Cleveland is very winnable with their down-pace approach balanced out by a poor 105.5 defensive efficiency rating. The sky is the limit for Embiid with more opportunity to go around and the necessity of his scoring and rebounding in any game script.

I also have no issue going to Tobias Harris and a vague interest in Kyle O’Quinn in the hopes he sees more minutes at a minimum price. Horford’s had an important role for these sixers with a 13% rebound rate, 19% assist rate, and 21% usage so there should be more to go around for at least a few Sixers.

Another Nice Spot For Utah NBA DFS Picks

Utah isn’t typically the sexiest fantasy destination. But after they played at Golden State yesterday, they now return home for a battle against Brooklyn. And they should be in a killer spot again thanks to the pace-up and poor 109 defensive efficiency rating for Brooklyn. Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, and Mike Conley all went off relative to their price points yesterday as I hoped in this column. All three look good again. I also wouldn’t shy away from Bojan Bogdanovic; he had a poor 18.5 FP day versus Golden State but had 15 shot attempts and a near-30% usage rate. These guys all have steady workloads and functions in the offense and can be valuable.

With Caris LeVert out on the other side, there’s a lot of usage to go around despite the pace-down spot versus a tough Jazz defense. Kyrie Irving jumps to 1.7 FPPM in court time without LeVert and he should have all the usage he wants. Spencer Dinwiddie also should soak up a lot more opportunity with a 33% usage rate without LeVert. Maybe even Taurean Prince has one of his better days with LeVert’s absence. This has been a fairly potent offense with only a seven point spread favoring Utah so I’m somewhat optimistic they can hang in the game despite the loss of a key cog.

Another Injury = Opportunity Spot NBA DFS Picks

De’Aaron Fox will be out upwards of a month for the Kings. That opens up Cory Joseph as a value play people will want today. Joseph hasn’t been great in court time without Fox with just  0.71 FPPM in 129 minutes but he does jump to a 23% assist rate with 21% usage. He also goes to a 50% assist rate in more limited court time with Buddy Hield on the floor with no Fox. I’d be willing to take the stab at him at least with the field’s 30%ish ownership in a pace-up spot versus the defensively bereft Blazers.

Bogdan Bogdanovic also could benefit some from the absence of Fox. He averages 1.13 FPPM with 29% usage and a 31% assist rate in court time without Fox. If Joseph can’t juice the offense, Bogdan could see more time with the ball. And independent of the Fox situation, Richaun Holmes is likely still a bit too cheap for his role. His size and action should be necessary with Hassan Whiteside seeing big minutes on the other side.

Underappreciated Big Man NBA DFS Picks

Domantas Sabonis has seen a ton of work with the majority of Pacers bigs sidelined. Sabonis has 38 and 39 minutes in his last two games and he’s in a nice spot again with the same expected situation versus Oklahoma City. Sabonis has a 20% rebound rate with 24% usage this year. He’s also played well versus his former team in OKC in the past with a much less secure role. He’s too solid to be overlooked as the ownership currently is.

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Similarly, Nikola Jokic is just too underpriced still. He’s put up at least 22 shots in his last two games and was above 42.5 FP in both. Against Atlanta’s weak interior defense with some assist upside as well, Jokic looks like a really strong play even if he’s unlikely to tap into the ceiling like Joel Embiid may today.

Lastly, the aforementioned Hassan Whiteside also is still too cheap given how well he’s played. Whiteside is over 40.75 FP and 27 minutes in his last four games. In the last two, he played 34 and 35 minutes. He has a gigantic ceiling when playing that much of a minutes load even with Sacramento generally doing a good job on the boards.

A Night In Miami NBA DFS Picks

Hopefully the Pistons don’t get the South Beach flu popularized by James Harden in the game with a seven point spread favoring Miami. But Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo look to be very well-priced for the matchup versus the defensively bereft Pistons. Detroit has a 109 defensive efficiency rating and is on a back-to-back. Butler’s been solid in every category with a 27% assist rate, 25% usage, and a serviceable 11% rebound rate. Adebayo remains solid with as much as 38 minutes in games recently. And Goran Dragic has benefitted the most from Justise Winslow’s absence and Kendrick Nunn’s role dropping off. He has 16 shot attempts in his last two games with over 37.5 FP in both.

I’m curious about Blake Griffin’s status tonight after he returned from injury last night. He played just 24 minutes but it’s not crazy that he could get ruled out on the back-to-back, a situation that would make Andre Drummond much more appealing. It’s also worth noting that Luke Kennard was far less affected by the returns of Derrick Rose and Griffin than one might think. Kennard still had 40 minutes with 17 shot attempts and 21% usage. If Griffin were scratched, I wouldn’t mind going back to him too.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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