NBA Switch and Hedge with Chris Spags: Andre Drummond and Nov. 18 NBA DFS Picks (FREE)

It’s been a solid week of NBA DFS for us so hopefully you guys are ready for our biggest slate of the week with tonight’s eight-gamer. We have a lot of underpriced big men like Andre Drummond to hit on, an interesting wrinkle to tonight’s slate. We also have a few spots, with Houston and Russell Westbrook in particular, where we need news to determine how to handle the situation.


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As always in the NBA DFS Switch and Hedge, I’ll run through some of the key angles I see on tonight’s slate as of 9:15 AM on the West Coast. Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.

Also, be sure to check out EMac’s NBA DFS Cash Building Blocks for today!

Priced Down Big Men

Andre Drummond had a dud of a game with Blake Griffin out on a back-to-back in Miami. He struggled with foul issues as he put up just 32.75 FP with 28 minutes of court time. He’s actually had foul issues his last three games, all of which resulted in subpar performances. But I have no issue going back again with his price down substantially as a result. Charlotte gives up a high 7% dunk rate and 31.4% rebounding rate, big opportunity in the paint for an NBA DFS behemoth like Drummond. Griffin and Derrick Rose in the lineup will cut into his upside with Griffin in particular bringing a 34% usage rate in 24 minutes of his regular season debut. But Drummond has a big ceiling in this spot and I don’t mind a healthy amount of him tonight.

Nikola Vucevic is also a bit priced down again despite four straight games of at least 45 FP. San Antonio is not the team of yore with a 108.9 defensive efficiency rating on the year. The game is also technically a pace-up for Orlando with its last in the league pace. Orlando will find it a little tough on the boards but it’s still a solid spot for Vucevic.

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It’s also not a price down for this guy but his price staying flat has me very into Karl-Anthony Towns. Andrew Wiggins has thrived with minutes without Jeff Teague on the court and it’s possible Teague continues to come off the bench to preserve that. But if Teague starts, Towns has been a better player per minute. He could get everything he wants against Washington’s 112.4 defensive efficiency rating. I wouldn’t hate Wiggins if we get news that Teague will continue to come off the bench either but Towns to me gets much more appealing with Teague fully in the mix.

Also, this guy is nowhere near the tier of these other guys but his price continues to fall: Cody Zeller interests me a bit in a game where they’ll need his size. Zeller played 34 minutes last game versus Memphis. It’ll be tough for him on the boards versus Drummond and co. with the 40.6 rebounds per game that Detroit allows but he could find some easy rim-run buckets. For a discount center who’s shown 52 FP upside this year, I don’t hate it one bit.

Lastly, Anthony Davis is expected to play after missing last game due to his shoulder and rib issues. He’s only cracked 60 FP once this year and LeBron James has shown more of a consistent ceiling thanks to his 51% assist rate. But given how iffy Sacramento is inside and their 109 defensive efficiency rating, I’d be interested in Davis with his price down.

What To Do About James Harden

James Harden is priced up quite a bit and we need to know about Russell Westbrook’s status with a back-to-back for Houston. The matchup versus Minnesota tomorrow seems more his style so I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw Westbrook sit today to pick up an extra day of rest. If that were the case, Harden would be well worth his elevated salary given his 1.8 FPPM and 48% usage without Westbrook. But if Westbrook is in, I’m less inclined to get to Harden’s NBA DFS price point. Harden’s been over 71.5 FP in four out of his last five games. But on a slate of this size, I imagine getting multiple guys in the lower price range will give you more upside unless we get some value to open up.

We also know Clint Capela is out for this game. That could open up Tyson Chandler as an interesting but risky play. Chandler has yet to play over 16 minutes this year but he has a solid 19% rebound rate that’s not far behind Capela’s 21%. With Capela recently crushing on the boards, Chandler could be a strong per-minute play with some risk he just doesn’t see enough court time.

Mike Conley Revenge?

Even ignoring the concept of revenge games, Mike Conley is in a nice spot with the pace-up spot versus Memphis with his price reasonable. He’s also desperately due for positive regression on his shot with 37% shooting from the floor to start the year. With Memphis’ poor defense and fast pace, I’d like Conley returning to Memphis. The spot may end up benefiting Donovan Mitchell or Bojan Bogdanovic more from an NBA DFS perspective given their slightly higher usage. But I think Conley can unlock some more assist upside and scoring in a return to his longtime home and that interests me tonight. If only we got points for the tasteful tribute video Memphis will play for him tonight.

A Nice Spot On The Road For Boston

Boston gets a 116.8 implied total on the road at Golden State with their poor 114.6 defensive efficiency rating. I’ve talked a lot about Jaylen Brown in NBA DFS this year, whose price is now a bit too high for me to love even though he still has upside. But Jayson Tatum seems to have some obvious upside at his price, ditto Kemba Walker. Marcus Smart has also assisted at over a 25% rate in court time without the injured Gordon Hayward and he could find some upside in this matchup. Enes Kanter might even be decent value after he saw 25 minutes last game with no Daniel Theis or Robert Williams. Golden State has been able to hang in games more with D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green in the lineup and it wouldn’t shock me to see multiple guys exceed value for Boston in this spot if they do.

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Can’t Forget About Washington

I talked about Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins above vis a vis Jeff Teague’s return. But the Washington side is as key given this game’s high 241 combined total. Bradley Beal’s price stayed flat after 62.75 FP in his last game at Boston. He had 44 points on 27 shot attempts in that game. Isaiah Thomas also saw a season-high 33 minutes in that game with 14 shot attempts.

These guys both look solid. Thomas’s usage has been down thanks to shared court time with Beal but in this high paced game, technically a pace-up for Washington, I think both these guys are plays worth having some exposure to. The same goes for Thomas Bryant who had an awful time last game but should be in a better spot given the 47.4 rebounds per game Minnesota allows. This game really could go off for a massive NBA DFS total tonight and game stacks look really appealing.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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