After a nice day off for Thanksgiving, the NBA immediately thrusts us back into the grind with 12 games on the main slate for NBA DFS picks. There are some appealing spots on paper to discuss as well some aggressive price jumps and equally curious static salaries industry-wide. Let’s sweat all the tryptophan and general arterial blockage out of our systems from yesterday with the latest slate of games in the 11/29 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
A Post-Thanksgiving Explosion For The Lakers
Anthony Davis came through for us at less ownership than he should have had in his return to New Orleans. I mentioned here that Davis mentioned LeBron James set the bar for him as the 39 points the Akron native achieved during his return to Cleveland. What did Davis end up scoring? 41 REAL LIFE POINTS on a season high 44% usage rate. His NBA DFS price remains a bit low for what he’s capable of given the pace-up spot for the Lakers. Ditto for LeBron. It may be more logical to go back to LeBron with him likely to seize some usage from Davis’s massive day. I also wouldn’t sleep on Rajon Rondo as semi-value given the pace and big opportunity for assists he’ll have.
The Washington side is less appealing given the pace-down against the Lakers’ strong 100 defensive efficiency rating. Bradley Beal is always a consideration and maybe former Lakers Mo Wagner or Thomas Bryant heat up in their return to Staples. It’s tough to project it with how the matchup cuts into the team’s overall NBA DFS upside.
Indiana’s Priced Up, But Still Looks Tasty
Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are both fairly expensive but project for high ownerships in their game against Atlanta. Brogdon had his best NBA DFS game since returning from injury with 39.5 FP in 30 minutes of a blowout win over Utah. Atlanta has a bad 111.4 defensive efficiency rating and that should mean more assist upside for Brogdon. The price-up is tough but I’ll be with the field. It’s hard to argue with Sabonis either with how consistent he’s been. He has a solid floor and maybe more ceiling than it may seem given the poor Atlanta defense.
Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb, and T.J. Warren all look fine too with far cheaper prices. Their roles are less central to the Pacers’ success from a fantasy perspective but any of them can explode for a significant boost n value. I’d favor Lamb but Turner has had so many down games lately with his last four under 27 FP that he may just be due for positive regression.
I also don’t hate Jabari Parker with his price on the other side. He’s the only Hawk projected for decent ownership after he went off for 64.5 FP at his old team in Milwaukee last game. Because of that, it may be a viable contrarian move to run it back with Trae Young despite his high NBA DFS price. It’s a bad matchup and a pace-down but Young has a 44% assist rate that’s behind just Luka Doncic and LeBron this year and he’s shown the ability to beat many tough defenses. It could very much be a risk/reward scenario to play him with the Pacers chalk.
Luka Doncic at Phoenix
Luka Doncic had a down game after I discussed why I’d come under the field on him on Tuesday’s small slate against the Clippers’ strong defense. He did a great job creating value for himself with 14-for-16 shooting from the line but shot 4-for-14 from the floor including 0-for-8 from deep. Despite the down game, his price is up for this matchup at Phoenix and it’s hard to fall in love on a slate of this size. He has upside in any spot and maybe will play with some more oomph against one of the teams who passed him up in the NBA Draft a year ago. But on a slate of this size with some studs in really nice spots, I’d be reluctant to load up again.
I might be more inclined for Doncic in NBA DFS lineups that include guys like Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre who both have decent prices for this matchup. Rubio disappointed as chalk last time out as he played just 25 minutes in his return from injury. But he was limited by foul trouble in his second stint so it’s safe to say he could have played closer to 30 minutes if that weren’t the case. Oubre also struggled with foul issues in the first half and he too should see a jump on his 18 minutes of court time. I have no issue playing a good bit of either, maybe even Devin Booker with his price on the downswing.
Chalk Furkan Korkmaz? I’m Good, Thank You
Furkan Korkmaz appears to be a top-owned NBA DFS play today with near-minimum prices industrywide and Al Horford ruled out for rest while Josh Richardson is doubtful despite going through shootaround. But there are other guys I’d be willing to take spins with at that price point if that holds up. His teammate James Ennis has been a decent 0.94 FPPM player without Horford and Richardson and could see extra run given the rugged wings and bigs the Knicks have against Philly. Matisse Thybulle had his best day in the last game with 32.75 FP in 21 minutes, largely getting that time thanks to Richardson’s injury.
And elsewhere Kent Bazemore is near minimum price and he’s shown solid per-minute upside as well in a nice matchup against Chicago. There are ways to go besides Korkmaz and I’d split the projected ownership for him amongst several cheap guys rather than load up on his questionable chalk.
Kawhi Leonard Back in San Antonio
Kawhi Leonard expects to play in another return to San Antonio. His price is up a bit higher than you’d like to see given Paul George in the lineup but Leonard is a consideration despite that. I also wouldn’t hate going back to George given the 111.5 defensive efficiency San Antonio brings. He disappointed versus Memphis with frequent double teams and Patrick Beverley taking away the assist upside he’s shown this year with a 23% rate.
Lou Williams has been a great play more often than not at his price point and while he’s no lock like he is when Leonard is out, I like him at low ownership too. I’d be less inclined for Montrezl Harrell today but his cheap price makes him jump out. This spot seems underappreciated overall. While all of the Clippers may not get there in unison, a few can meaningfully exceed value against bad San Antonio.
A Rare Nice Spot for Oklahoma City
On paper, it looked like a decent NBA DFS spot last time out for the Thunder as they went to Portland. They ended up blown out with the starters playing no more than 30 minutes. As a four-point favorite at home against fast paced New Orleans, I’m willing to go back again. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari should see more scoring opportunities at pace, Chris Paul should get more assist chances on his 29% rate, and Steven Adams should be able to feast inside with no Derrick Favors. The Pelicans have a 111 defensive efficiency rating on the year and they’ve shown little ability to stop anything.
Jrue Holiday looks like the most appealing NBA DFS play on the other side with Lonzo Ball currently questionable. If he returns, Ball will likely come off the bench and that should allow Holiday to retain his ball time and 31% assist rate unencumbered.
Another Nice Pace-Up For A Slow Team
Utah heads to Memphis again and gets 6.5-point boost on their season average from Vegas with 113.3 implied points. Memphis plays with more pace and a poor 110 defensive efficiency rating. Donovan Mitchell gains more upside at a reasonable price with a team leading 32% usage rate. Rudy Gobert looks solid as he competes for rebounds with Jonas Valanciunas. Mike Conley’s emotions and his cool shooting to start the year led him to a mediocre 27 FP in his return at Memphis on Nov. 15. But Conley shot a season-high 19 attempts and his price is down enough that I think he has more upside than his 1% projected ownership.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
