It’s one of our bigger slates so far this year with 11 games tonight for our NBA DFS picks. And after what was an exceedingly frustrating night for me yesterday (thanks Jaylen Brown and Kendrick Nunn), I’m itching to get back into some tournaments tonight. We don’t have a preponderance of lower priced value but we do have more expensive guys who have gigantic upside at their price points. I’m expecting there to be EXTREMELY high scores industrywide tonight so we’ll have to dig deep to find lineup builds that give us tournament winning upside. So let’s waste no time and get to the NBA DFS picks for November 8 (11/2) in today’s Switch and Hedge.
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As always in the NBA DFS Switch and Hedge, I’ll run through some of the key angles I see on tonight’s slate as of 9:30 AM on the West Coast. Tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
Chalk Raul Neto Day NBA DFS Picks
Even though Furkan Korkmaz picked up the second half start when Ben Simmons went out with his shoulder injury, Raul Neto ended up with 30 minutes and 25.25 FP. Neto projects for a ton of ownership in a tough spot versus Denver today as the value play du jour. And I imagine I’ll be with it. Neto has a 25% assist rate on the year while there’s a lot of playmaking opportunity left behind with Simmons’ absence. Neto’s 0.88 FPPM in court time without Simmons is nothing to feel terribly confident about. The matchup versus slow-paced, defensively sound Denver isn’t either. But the preponderance of Neto seems deserved on a slate that will need some value.
Joel Embiid has also soared to 1.9 FPPM in court time without Simmons this year. Karl-Anthony Towns is cheaper and in a better spot versus Golden State. But, as we saw versus Memphis, Embiid can be a viable tournament pivot if Towns doesn’t explode like everyone assumes he should.
A Towns Friday Night Smackdown NBA DFS Picks
Speaking of the big man, Karl-Anthony Towns is in the spot of all spots against the scrub crew for Golden State. The Warriors have a 115.5 defensive efficiency rating to start the year with no bigs capable of limiting him. Every projection system has Towns through the roof, his ownership will follow, but he still seems like a rock solid play with a fat 121.5 implied total.
Jarrett Culver has also been priced up but he’s a decent play with Jeff Teague ruled out as I was writing this. Culver went for 32.75 FP with 21% usage and seven assists with Teague and Shabazz Napier out last time. Napier is now a game-time decision so I’d monitor the situation closely. It’s also hard to ever love the guy but Andrew Wiggins also went off with no Teague. His usage was up to 33% which resulted in 30 real life points on 11-for-21 shooting, good for 47.5 FP. With Teague ruled out, he may be worth a look at low ownership.
D’Angelo Russell is expected to return and his price is asinine. That said, he will have all of the usage he wants versus the league’s fastest pace in Minnesota. He’s a decent guy to run it back with in the hopes that the 11-point underdog Warriors keep it close on the road.
Hard To Trust Fournier Chalk NBA DFS Picks
Evan Fournier will project well today with Terrence Ross already ruled out. But Fournier really stunk last game with no Ross. He had 10.5 FP in 28 minutes with an 11% usage rate. I understand having some exposure with his price down and his ability not in question. But he seems to really be hurt by Markelle Fultz in the starting lineup with his 21% usage up just enough from DJ Augustin’s 17% to make the margins narrow for Fournier. The pace-up spot should help but I just wouldn’t meaningfully exceed the field’s expected 25% ownership.
A Cleveland-Washington Barnburner NBA DFS Picks
It’s a shockingly high 232 point combined total from Vegas for Cleveland at Washington. And the first place to look has to be a pricy Kevin Love. Love has a 20% assist rate and 23% rebound rate. His usage rate is also turning upwards with at least 14 shots in his last three games. Tristan Thompson and Love both seem to be in solid spots with prices that feel lofty for them at first blush. They’ve exceed value at their elevated price points multiple times this year and it does seem like a spot to happen again since the Wizards have a 110.1 defensive efficiency rating.
It’s a pace-down for Washington but Bradley Beal still looks solid. Beal has likely lost some assist upside with Isaiah Thomas’s shared court time but he had an insane 29 shots last game versus Indiana. Beal definitely has some upside at his price.
Other Underpriced Top Plays NBA DFS Picks
Nikola Vucevic seems too cheap and he’ll undoubtedly get lost in the shuffle on a slate with Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Andre Drummond. Memphis is probably tougher inside than they get credit for, as seen with how voraciously they defended Towns in their last game. But Vuc shouldn’t be priced where he is.
The same applies for Nikola Jokic. He’s been under 36 FP four out of his last five games, which is brutal. But we know the upside he has at a price that’s cratering. Jokic has also brought it to Philly in the past; he went for 63.5 and 76.5 FP in two games versus Philly last year.
Pascal Siakam also feels a bit underpriced with what we’ve seen of him this year. His 20% assist rate is fairly Giannis-like and the pace-up spot versus New Orleans is a solid one for him. He opened the season with 66.5 FP in this matchup and could smash again at not much ownership.
Possibly Slept-On West Coast Game NBA DFS Picks
Brooklyn and Portland has the highest combined total on the slate with 236 points. Given middling defenses for both sides and a fast-paced Brooklyn club, this could be an explosive and entirely overlooked spot. Kyrie Irving has gone bananas with his 34% usage rate with only two games under 50 FP this year. Caris LeVert has also been strong with a 27% usage rate and his price is reasonable given many games around 40 FP.
Damian Lillard also could be strong after a tough 9-for-23 shooting day versus the Clippers last night. CJ McCollum is the better value but Lillard could smash in a duel with one of his PG peers. Hassan Whiteside remains underpriced as well for his role with Portland. The pace may make it a little tougher on him, particularly on a back-to-back. But Whiteside has at least 24 minutes in every game this year and he somehow got up to 18 shot attempts last night.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!