After the bloodletting that was last night’s slate where the Bucks upset a day’s worth of analyzing NBA DFS picks, we have a massive nine-game slate tonight. If you paid attention before Milwaukee tipped off on late swap sites, guys like Sterling Brown or Frank Mason may have saved your day. But it’s a helpful reminder that we are entering NBA DFS’s silly season. Teams will tank and rest players on back-to-backs, so we all have to be prepared for absolute chaos on any given night (and the subsequent risk/rewards to our bankrolls).
Not a member of Awesemo? No worries, sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best DFS player’s projections, rankings, tools and premium live blog. Use promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE for half off your first week!
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to make sure you never miss any of my content. But now, let’s get into it all, with no teams on the back half of a back-to-back, thankfully, in the March 10 Switch and Hedge.
A Nice High Total in Houston
The Rockets are in an exceedingly strong situation at home in their game versus the Timberwolves. The game has a slate-high 246.5 combined total, another of the highest over/unders of the year, and both teams play at league-high pace. Both James Harden and Russell Westbrook are particularly strong tonight as a result. Westbrook would be my slight preference based on the matchup and his lower price, but Harden is good as well with slightly less projected ownership. Even in a matchup where he played poorly last time out versus Orlando, Westbrook had 40% usage for his second straight game. He also hung 69.5 fantasy points on Minnesota the last time they played.
Robert Covington‘s revenge isn’t something I’d weigh too heavily tonight, especially since he went to a Wolves game in the owner’s box right after he left, but his price looks good. Covington has shot upwards of 13 3-point attempts lately and can certainly get going against Minnesota’s non-defense.
I wouldn’t mind tournament stabs at D’Angelo Russell or Malik Beasley at far less ownership than Houston’s core guys. They’ll need to score a lot to hang with the Rockets in this one as a 12-point underdog. Naz Reid scares me with his price as high as it is, but he’s seen over 26% usage in his last two games and has steadily been between 25 and 28 minutes. We’ve seen teams lately start to ebb away from matching Houston with small ball and play centers who have some vague hope of rim protection. I’d worry they go to James Johnson more for that reason, but they’ve been committed to Reid’s minutes lately.
Shaq Harrison NBA DFS Chalk Again???
I cannot believe we’re back here, but after three straight games of at least 29.5 fantasy points, Shaq Harrison projects as one of the chalkiest plays on the slate again on all the sites today. The minutes have been there for him as he was up to 36 minutes last game, but it seems unlikely to expect him to get four steals and a block again and it’s hard to love him with just 12% usage. I’d personally rather have Coby White, who’ll pick up the start for Tomas Satoransky today and should immediately dominate the ball more in that first unit.
Cleveland has a 113.6 defensive rating that should give White a ceiling and a floor better than Harrison at far less ownership. Wendell Carter also projects fairly well and should be well positioned by the rim thanks to the matchup. I could also see going to Lauri Markkanen with him projected to play around 27 minutes. I wouldn’t want many pieces of the game together in the same lineup due to the low pace, but going away from Harrison and to other Bulls appeals to me a lot. Some Harrison exposure is fine, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if he lost minutes with the new rotation and a lot of size on Cleveland’s side.
Andre Drummond looks really good to me with Tristan Thompson expected out again. Drummond has over 33 minutes in his last two games he’s been active and responded with 57.75 fantasy points or more in both. When they can’t take his minutes away from him, he is good. The usage and minutes opened up by Kevin Porter Jr.’s absence also would make me interested in multiple pieces.
Collin Sexton has steadily been over 30% usage lately. Kevin Love has played over 37 minutes in his last three games. Matthew Dellavedova is value priced and has over 35 fantasy points in his last two games. He even played 45 minutes last game, including overtime. Larry Nance saw 43 minutes last game, including 16 in the first half before Thompson got hurt. Cedi Osman is on the cusp of playable for me despite his elevated price. It was just an eight-man rotation last game and one of those men, Thompson, is now out, so all of these guys should be in consideration in my opinion.
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE
The Knicks Are Surprisingly Low Owned for a Game at Washington
Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton are at reasonable prices in a game against Washington’s fast pace and 113.1 defensive rating. Despite that, neither projects for much over 10% ownership due to the size of the slate. I’d say that may be a mistake. Randle is over 44 fantasy points in three out of his last four games, Payton is over 40.25 fantasy points in two out of his last three. Even R.J. Barrett got up to 33% usage last game, and while he shot just 5-for-16, he’s done a good job in pace-up spots before, including his recent 42 fantasy points day against Houston.
Mitchell Robinson has the potential to do his usual rim running and board crashing but with the minutes a little less secure. I feel similarly for Bobby Portis, though I like all of these guys for tournaments and might even consider Randle and Payton to be on the cusp of core plays.
Bradley Beal remains Washington’s most appealing option. He was up to 40% usage last game despite an 8-for-24 effort against Miami. If he sees that type of usage against New York’s 110.5 defensive rating, he could break a slate. Rui Hachimura and Shabazz Napier are at strong prices and Napier did just put up 51.5 fantasy points in 40 minutes last game. I’d be more inclined for Napier in lineups without Beal, but that’s a lot of run. Troy Brown would benefit if the currently questionable Jerome Robinson missed again. Brown and Thomas Bryant is decent value plays from Washington, but both may be a little too chalky. I’d rather take Dellavedova.
Is Memphis Still a Good NBA DFS Matchup to Target?
Orlando was a solid team to target at the tail end of last week with Evan Fournier’s absence. Markelle Fultz takes a jump to 27.8% usage alongside Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon and this game should have some pace. Ja Morant has made nightmares for some point guards lately – looking at you, Trae Young – but I want more than Fultz’s 1% projected ownership. His 41 fantasy points versus another fast-paced team in Minnesota in just 27 minutes give me some hope he can find his ceiling today. Vucevic would be in play for me with a decent situation inside against Jonas Valanciunas. He’s over 46 fantasy points in five out of his last six games and his rising price should keep the ownership reasonable.
I’m less inclined for Memphis’s side. De’Anthony Melton remains a decent value and GPP dart throw, but guys like Jonas Valanciunas and the sour-shooting Dillon Brooks don’t quite do it for me in this matchup. Brooks, who continues to be a worse player than the Bulls’ Denzel Valentine, remains unable to hit anything with 40% shooting on the year despite a preponderance of opportunity and easy matchups lately.
Everyone’s Ready to Trust DeMar DeRozan Again, It Seems
LaMarcus Aldridge will remain on the sidelines and Dejounte Murray will join him after a calf strain during his 49.25 fantasy points overtime effort versus Cleveland. DeMar DeRozan should benefit at a reasonable NBA DFS price. On the year, he has 32.6% usage with Aldridge and Murray off the court and also a 32% assist rate. Rudy Gay should also see more court time while Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills become interesting GPP plays with the boost in usage they’ll see. Trey Lyles’ role remains mostly secure with an NBA DFS price that’s very low for a guy who played 41 minutes, including overtime, in his last game.
The Mavericks remain a team to play either Luka Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis and not much else. Maxi Kleber is reasonably priced, but on a slate this big, it’s likely Doncic and Porzingis or bust. Doncic at under 10% ownership always has some appeal and Porzingis will be even lower than that. It should be a competitive game and Doncic went for 64 fantasy points the last time he played San Antonio a couple weeks ago while Porzingis had 57 fantasy points in the same spot.
Around the Rest of the NBA DFS Slate
- Deandre Ayton is currently questionable and his status is important given the heater Aron Baynes is on. Baynes’ value chalk day on Friday with 69.5 fantasy points was one of the best value days we’ve likely ever had in NBA DFS. He then hung 37.25 fantasy points on Milwaukee after that. His usage is shockingly high at over 26% in both and I’d be OK with some exposure to him again if Ayton misses. If Ayton is in, Baynes is a pretty solid play and I’d downgrade Devin Booker, Ricky Rubio and Dario Saric. They’re all firmly in play if Ayton is out while I’m still less inclined for Portland’s side. Damian Lillard’s price coming down is OK, same for Hassan Whiteside’s.
- Brooklyn will be with new coach Jacques Vaughn for tonight’s game at the Lakers. Spencer Dinwiddie is at a reasonable price that’s on the way down and I wouldn’t hate some exposure his way. He sees reliable minutes and perhaps a point guard as coach will give him a little more love after the team has flowed heavily towards Caris LeVert. DeAndre Jordan also picked up the start after Kenny Atkinson was deposed and played just shy of 29 minutes. Jordan is in play against the Lakers’ size and he has a solid 1.2 fantasy points per minute this year. Anthony Davis is solid on the Lakers’ side, but better if the currently questionable LeBron James misses. I’d also prepare for heavy Rajon Rondo chalk again if LeBron is out.
- Steph Curry is questionable tonight for a home game against the Clippers and he is decently priced if he’s in. He had 29% usage and 42 fantasy points in his return to the lineup against Toronto. I’d have a hard time playing any Clippers if he’s out as an 11-point road favorite. The prices on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are solid, though. I also wouldn’t sleep on Marquese Chriss either way. He’s had over 43 fantasy points in his last two games and his been a play I land on a lot this year. He’ll be appropriately owned today, but he could put up a solid effort against the Clippers’ iffy interior.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE
