The Switch and Hedge, 3/11/20: Pistons are a Mess, Injuries in Dallas + Trae Young Value

Yesterday’s monster slate had a lot of landmines amongst the popular NBA DFS picks. I’m particularly aggrieved with the Knicks after their starters were trounced early on by Washington, and good news, those same Knicks are back in another potentially massive spot at Atlanta. It currently looks like a bit of an ugly slate with some news breaking as I publish this, so we’ll need to really dig deep for tonight’s slate. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to make sure you never miss any of my content. But now, let’s get into it all in the March 11 Switch and Hedge.


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Maybe New York Can Disappoint Less Today?

It’s a back-to-back for the Knicks in Atlanta after they opened so poorly yesterday versus Washington that they were benched four minutes into the game down 18-4. Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton were gigantic busts for me yesterday but I find it hard to not go back to them today in a game with a 232.5 combined total versus the Hawks. Randle has been over 44.5 fantasy points in three out of his last five games and the times he’s failed are the ones where his court time has taken a dip under 30 minutes. Bobby Portis and Frank Ntilikina went off as a result of the starters’ failures, but Randle and Payton will get the first crack to remedy the mistakes of yesterday. Portis still is passable value either way, but I would prefer to go with the starters for the bounce back. R.J. Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are lower-priority plays for me but both also are fine with less ownership projected their way.

Trae Young is a nice play at his price tag after he got back on track with 61.5 fantasy points in the Hawks’ double-overtime win over Charlotte. It took 44 minutes to get there but his 25 shot attempts were encouraging to see after a few down games. John Collins is probably a bit overpriced on DraftKings in particular but both should be in consideration against the Knicks’ 110.6 defensive rating. Kevin Huerter as well is fine, but I find it hard to prioritize him with De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish available to cut into his opportunity. I’d consider Dewayne Dedmon more after he got to 28 minutes last game and put up 33.75 fantasy points despite some foul issues.



New Orleans Gives Sacramento Their NBA DFS Boost

Sacramento gets a seven-point boost on their season scoring average from Vegas for their home game against New Orleans. De’Aaron Fox looks particularly good, but with the pace-up for the Kings, I wouldn’t mind a lot of their guys. The frontcourt is more crowded with the return of Richaun Holmes and I’d prefer to focus on the back court and wings as a result. Bogdan Bogdanovic was down last game with 20 fantasy points versus Toronto, but he had 52.25 fantasy points the game before that against Portland. He’s a more volatile play than Fox at this point but I like him with his price where it is. I wouldn’t hate Harrison Barnes with his price, but he averages just 0.74 fantasy points per minute. He’s seen over 34 minutes in his last three games and is less likely to find a minutes crush than Nemanja Bjelica or Buddy Hield with his limited bench run.

Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are solid plays as usual against Sacramento’s 108.9 defensive rating but the pace down makes it hard to want to load up here. I’m less inclined for Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball with their prices now up to the same level, but overall, all of these guys should be in play for tournaments thanks to a fairly ugly slate. I also wouldn’t mind a little bit of Josh Hart and Nicolo Melli as value guys who could be a pivot to some of the other chalkier value plays out there. Neither is a high priority but both are cheap and see steady run above 20 minutes.

Watch the Injury Report in Dallas

It’s a back-to-back for the Mavericks at home against Denver. I’d watch out for a Kristaps Porzingis rest day as a result, a situation that would make Luka Doncic more appealing if he goes (UPDATE: Porzingis was ruled out right as I published this, along with Seth Curry). Doncic played despite being questionable with a wrist injury yesterday and his 41% usage was one of his highest marks within the last month as he shot 13-for-26 from the floor. I’d have no issue with Doncic if Porzingis does rest as he has on back-to-backs recently. If Doncic and Porzingis are both out, you can play whatever Mavericks remain with an emphasis on Tim Hardaway Jr. and maybe Maxi Kleber. I also wouldn’t sleep on a Boban Marjanovic appearance today at minimum price given the slow-paced matchup.

Denver’s side looks mostly gross to me. Nikola Jokic can always spike an upside without many bigs of consequence on the other side. But if Dallas rests guys, I could see Jokic taking it easy as he did last time versus Milwaukee’s skeleton crew in that surprisingly competitive game a few days ago. Jamal Murray and Will Barton can spike tournament upside but I wouldn’t prioritize either. Paul Millsap remains affordable too but these guys all feel like GPP plays to sprinkle in rather than guys to build around as a core.


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The Messy Pistons Head to Philadelphia

Christian Wood has been fairly steady with his last five games over 38.5 fantasy points with usage in the neighborhood of 28%. He should have a chance to be useful today despite a rising price. But the rest of the Pistons lineup is a bit of a mess. Bruce Brown is questionable, but he was the lead ball handler last game with Brandon Knight sidelined. Knight will be back in, and if both guys are available, it is a mess. I’d be more inclined for Knight if Brown is out and less into Brown overall. Jordan McRae is cheap enough to take stabs at in the second unit, but he’s yet to top 22 minutes in his Pistons run thus far. The 35% usage he took last game without Knight, despite 1-for-10 shooting, may be a sign that he’d be better off for fantasy upside if Knight weren’t available. I also don’t love the Thon Maker NBA DFS chalk even though I get that he projects well at a near-minimum price. Maker saw just under 25 minutes last game thanks to some struggles with fouls and effectiveness for John Henson. He’s a low usage dart toss who doesn’t work for me as a currently projected chalk play of the day.

Joel Embiid’s status is key to know, as is Josh Richardson’s after both practiced yesterday. The return of both would make Tobias Harris a much more difficult play for me to land on. If Embiid is out, Harris and Al Horford would be far more of a consideration for me with a preference for Horford. If Embiid is in, I would only be interested in a few tournament dart throws at Embiid. Any sort of particularly low minutes limit for him announced in advance would make that evaporate.

Around the Rest of the NBA DFS Slate

  • Oklahoma City’s players are mostly fairly priced on a slate without lots to love salary-wise. Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both project to be highly owned currently and they are solid values. Steven Adams is fine too, though his minutes have been down a bit lately with 27 or less minutes in four out of his last five games. He’d likely see more run if the currently questionable Rudy Gobert is in. Gobert missed shootaround and his absence could result in more run for Tony Bradley with 1.1 fantasy points per minute on the year. Bradley’s been super productive in bench run lately and I’d want a lot of him if we know he starts. Jordan Clarkson also jumps out as a decent value NBA DFS GPP play at under 10% projected ownership.
  • Jimmy Butler is at a very nice price for Miami’s game at home against Charlotte, but I’d have a hard time getting to Bam Adebayo at his elevated price point. Same for Duncan Robinson with him shooting 7-for-11, 8-for-14 and 9-for-12 from deep in his last three games. He’s a 45% shooter on the year on 8.3 deep shots per game so he’s legitimately a bomber, but the volume could shrink if Tyler Herro makes it back into the lineup today. Even if Herro misses, Duncan is unlikely to continue smoking the nets at that rate.
  • The Hornets bigs are more interesting to me than Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier at guard thanks to the price differences and matchup. P.J. Washington is an interesting play to go back to after he sunk a ton of lineups with six fantasy points in 16 minutes versus Atlanta last time out. He was over 32 fantasy points the three games before that. Miles Bridges also is in play but his minutes have come down a bit as James Borrego has force fed both Cody and Caleb Martin into the lineup lately. Cody is better to me than Caleb despite Caleb’s 37 minutes and 23 real-life points last game. The whole situation is a mess.

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Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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