NBA DFS Picks: 7/30/20 Switch & Hedge

After months of planning and weeks of delicious strip club wings tempting players into the terrifying world of COVID, NBA DFS is back. The industry is filled to the brim with big-money tournaments for tonight’s first “seeding games”: Utah versus New Orleans and the Clippers versus the Lakers. But have no fear; The Switch and Hedge is back and here for another go-round to help you think through some of the finer parts of tonight’s slate.

There’s a wealth of other content here at Awesemo to help you prepare for the NBA’s restart to start to dig into it there. And make sure to use the promo code RESTART at Awesemo.com/join to get half off of an all-sport Awesemo+ package to get all the data you need to make sense of the upcoming slates of games.

But we’ve waited long enough. Let’s dig into tonight’s two games in the NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.

Utah Jazz (111.8 implied points) at New Orleans Pelicans (114.8 implied points)

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell appear to be two of the chalk plays on the slate with reasonable prices for an expected up-tempo matchup with the Pelicans. Gobert provides a solid floor at the center position, though these high-octane matchups haven’t always given him as big of a boost as one might think. Gobert averages 34.8 fantasy points in 32 minutes per games against the Pelicans this year.

Mitchell seems a little more avoidable on the slate with higher than expected ownership. Bojan Bogdanovic will miss the restart with an injury, and one would think that gives the other players a boost without his 26% usage rate. But bizarrely, Bogdanovic off the court doesn’t add much value to anyone in the Jazz rotation. Mitchell’s usage and assists stay flat, Mike Conley actually drops slightly in assist rate, and Jordan Clarkson is mostly unaffected with his bench gunner role. The only material change is likely more secure minutes for Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles, both of whom are priced up for that change. Clarkson will be highly owned as a value play with a solid-but-unspectacular projection for him. A pivot to a lower-owned Conley or a prayer that Emmanuel Mudiay somehow emerges with more run at minimum NBA DFS prices could be one way to get different given the short slate.

Zion Williamson is an obvious play at his position, though his status still seems a bit murky after he had to exit the NBA bubble for a family emergency. If he somehow misses the game, Brandon Ingram would see a big boost in usage that makes him more appealing. Ingram is still playable at his current rate if Williamson is in, but these two materially draw away from each other. Lonzo Ball is similarly affected by Jrue Holiday and neither jumps out as worth a ton of exposure above the field. I’d favor Ball between the two, but it seems potentially more interesting to me to hope a cheap Josh Hart or J.J. Redick find productivity against Utah’s restrictive pace. Also keep an eye on a dart throw for Nicolo Melli if Williamson does get scratched. Melli has started in the scrimmages sans Williamson as well.

L.A. Clippers (106.3 implied points) at L.A. Lakers (110.3 implied points)

The status of Patrick Beverley seems crucial today. The Clippers will be without Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell and a lack of Beverley could mean a major abundance of minutes for guys like Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet. Beverley reportedly went through shootaround, but keep an eye on his status closer to lock. Paul George looks like the far more obvious play at his price point than Kawhi Leonard, a man who may have very little purpose in these seeding games relative to his injury. Leonard will be a more contrarian play, but I’m really concerned about his ability to get the minutes he needs with his degenerative quad issues.

Marcus Morris could see extended minutes because of the lack of Harrell. But Ivica Zubac is back and cleared after contracting COVID, and Joakim Noah is also in the stable now and played decent minutes in scrimmages before Zubac’s return. Zubac seems like he needs to play extended minutes given the presence of Anthony Davis, but I’ll have a mix of all these guys who could see additional run as the de facto five.

For the Lakers, LeBron James looks slightly more appealing on paper than Davis. I might favor Davis in large tournaments because of his cheaper price and the severe lack of bigs for the Clippers. That said, finding a way to get to both men does interest me. LeBron sees a uptick in 34% usage and a jump to a 51% assist rate with Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo off the floor.

The absence of these guards will also give more of a chance to Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to do something as well as faint hopes for Awesemo doppelganger Alex Caruso. None of them are a priority, but it wouldn’t shock me to see one find a way into a winning lineup if variance kicks in meaningfully. I’ll take similar stabs at JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard too given their ability to spike an upside even in short bursts of court time. They seem more logical than guys like Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith, who are new additions to the roster and will have an uncertain run of court time.

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Chris Spags

Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].