Welcome to the Prop Report presented by No House Advantage! For those new to the site, NHA is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) app that offers prop-based contests across multiple sports. Simply pick your five favorite player props for a given slate, rank them five (most confident) through one (least confident) and receive those points for each prop that hits. The best part? Instead of facing a house advantage on props like you would with a sportsbook, No House Advantage has purely peer-to-peer contests with big cash prizes. Sign up here or download the app from the App Store to get started. I’m going to give you the three NBA picks I have my eye on for you to utilize in your three-, four- and five-point confidence slots for Tuesday’s two-game slate.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
Kemba Walker — OVER 4.5 Assists
Coming off a brutal matchup against the Raptors, I’m looking to smash the overs on as many Kemba Walker props as I can today. While I can still get behind the over on Walker’s points (19.5) and 3’s made (1.5), it’s the over 4.5 assists I really want to take advantage of. For the 2019-20 regular season, Walker sported a healthy 27.2% usage; in the Raptors series against elite defenders Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, that number crashed to 20% on the dot. Look for Brad Stevens to utilize his star point guard more in the offensive scheme in this series, as Goran Dragic is the weak defensive link to an otherwise stout Miami Heat unit. Be early to this prop before it shoots up later in the series.
Nikola Jokic — UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made
Well well well, this prop sure changed drastically. After hammering the over on 1.5 made 3’s for the past five games in which they all hit, this prop finally adjusted up to 2.5. Jokic will continue to get good looks from the top of the key, as Ivica Zubac can’t come out to contest or he’ll get beat off the dribble. But 2.5 is a drastically different number, as he’s averaged only 5.67 shots from deep in this series. That means he’d need to hit at a 50% clip in Game 7 to go over on this prop, which is a hard ask even if he’s uncontested. Whenever a prop severely adjusts like this, jump on the other side and live with the result.
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Marcus Morris — UNDER 11.5 Points
Morris has exceeded expectations in this series, shooting 52% from the field and nearly 50% from 3. With the sudden demise of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell on the offensive end, he’s actually third for Los Angeles in scoring behind stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. However, he’s done all of this despite averaging only eight field goal attempts and 1.2 free throws per game. The shooting already feels unsustainable for a player with a career 43% field goal percentage. So without shot volume to back up his current rate of production, 11.5 points feels like a reach in a do-or-die Game 7. Ride on the under here.
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