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NBA DFS Picks: The SuperDraft Starting Five | Jimmy Butler | 9/4/20

Eric Lindquist



NBA Building Blocks: Greg Ehrenberg gives out his favorite NBA DFS picks for DraftKings + FanDuel | Finals NBA Finals Game 2 | 10/2

Welcome to the SuperDraft NBA DFS Starting Five! I’m here to give my favorite NBA DFS picks in the form of a starting five — two guards, two forwards, and a center — for the main slate for Friday, Sept. 4, starting at 6:30 p.m. EST.

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NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft Starting Five | Sept. 4


It’s an all-hands-on-deck spot for the Milwaukee Bucks today, facing an 0-2 hole they’ve got to climb out of to advance. My hope is that Mike Budenholzer decides to extend his starters’ minutes for once in his life, and Bledsoe falls into that category. He looked excellent in Game 2’s first half, coming off a quad injury that kept him out of Game 1. And if he had done anything whatsoever in the fourth quarter, his NBA DFS ownership would be double what it’ll come in at today. It’s terrifying to fade the red-hot Goran Dragic at the same multiplier, but the amount of leverage you get with Bledsoe if he outperforms him is enormous. I’m willing to take the plunge with Bledsoe at less than a third the ownership and hope Dragic’s shooting comes back to earth.


As if 2020 wasn’t weird enough, I’m hesitant to roster Westbrook of all people. This is really me just trusting my model and what goes into, as the Lakers tend to bleed fantasy production to the point guard position. During the regular season, Westbrook sported a 35.4% usage rate and 1.36 SuperDraft points per minute, and the Rockets will need that version of their superstar to compete in this series. James Harden could come out firing to avenge his poor Game 7 performance from the past series, but I’m still erring on the side of the small 0.15 multiplier boost with Westbrook today. Add in that he got his minutes extended to 34 last game, and I see some potential NBA DFS upside for Westbrook for the first time in a long time.


I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t acknowledge how good of forward plays LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo despite near-min multipliers. But I try to hunt multiplier upside as much as I can in this article and let you fill in the gaps from there. Jimmy Butler has been a staple of the SuperDraft Starting Five for that very reason, and we’re looking for a big bounce back performance from him here in Game 3. He’s said on multiple occasions that he doesn’t care about stats as long as they get the win, but to keep up their winning ways against the top-seeded Bucks he better do more than in Game 2. Contrary to Wednesday’s box score, Butler can fill up a stat sheet in a variety of ways, although we’ll certainly need more than eight shot attempts to hit a winning score at forward on this slate. He’s eclipsed the 65-point mark on SuperDraft every other game so far in these playoffs, so it’s a simple law of averages he does it again today.


I don’t buy into plus/minuses all that much, but Middleton’s +18 from Game 2 sticks out like a sore thumb. Also sticking out is that he still didn’t see his minutes pushed past 33. Unlike Bledsoe being capped by Budenholzer, a lot of Middleton’s restrictions in this series have been the result of foul trouble. Hopefully he can keep his hands to himself in this one, as he’s a key contributor to the Bucks’ success on both ends of the court. We’re obviously more concerned with his offensive output, but as long as he can stay on the floor, the volume will always be there. At a 1.4x multiplier, he could be a must-own if the shot’s falling in Game 3.


Yesterday I got burned by the only center play I was remotely interested in with Nikola Jokic, but the same scenario exists today and I’m all-in on the chalk. Adebayo underperformed expectations on Wednesday, finishing with only 41.3 SuperDraft points due to foul trouble that suppressed his minutes and production. This kept his multiplier at 1.3x for Friday, and there are simply no centers who can compete with at that number if he has a semi-normal game. Also if Kelly Olynyk can’t go tonight, Eric Spoelstra might opt to just extend Adebayo’s minutes into the 40’s rather than sprinkle in the likes of Meyers Leonard into the rotation. If there’s one piece of NBA DFS chalk to lock-in on SuperDraft, Adebayo’s it.

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