Welcome to the SuperDraft Starting Five! I’m here to give my starting five plays — two guards, two forwards, and a center — for Tuesday’s main slate starting at 5:30 p.m. EST.
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DONOVAN MITCHELL (1.3X MULTIPLIER)
I know it feels too easy, but fading Mitchell or Jamal Murray in a Game 7 spot where both are a lock to shoot 20-plus shots seems like a fool’s errand. As much as I love Kemba Walker in this article, there are a lot of mouths to feed on the Boston side, whereas Mitchell has a straight path to as much volume as he can handle. He’s averaged over 38 actual points a game in this series, and as talked up as his 3-point shooting acumen has been, he’s averaging over nine free throw attempts per game and converting them at a 97% clip. I expect Mitchell to try and carry Utah in this one, and I wouldn’t imagine fading at this multiplier.
JAMAL MURRAY (1.4X MULTIPLIER)
Murray’s fantasy point totals the last three games are 67.25, 68.0, 82.25. Throw in the 1.4x multiplier on those totals, and Murray’s been a consistent source of 100-plus SuperDraft points. Obviously, there could be some shooting regression,, but even so he could exceed 50 fantasy points on pure volume alone. I don’t care that he’s going to be super-chalk. I’m riding the wave on SuperDraft with Murray today.
JERAMI GRANT (1.7X MULTIPLIER)
In the last three games, Grant has played 35, 40 and 36 minutes. I’ve always been a Grant truther, albeit as a real-life basketball player more so than a fantasy one. He’s going to have ample court opportunity tonight, as Mike Malone is rolling with his athleticism over Paul Millsap for the lion’s share of time at the four, and there’s an upside at this multiplier if he can add anything to his scoring output. The same could also be said for fellow wing Michael Porter, as I expect them both to be the easy-bucket beneficiaries of two excellent passers in Murray and Nikola Jokic. Grant hasn’t spiked an upside since Game 1 of this series, but the minutes are there, so I’m happy to take some shots at low ownership.
PASCAL SIAKAM (1.25X MULTIPLIER)
Game 1 was a coaching clinic by Brad Stevens on the defensive end, and nothing stood out to me more watching the game than 6-foot-3 Marcus Smart rotating on to 6-foot-9 Siakam halfway through the first quarter. Smart’s peskiness got Siakam out of a rhythm and forced him into three early fouls, setting the tone for the Celtics Game 1 beatdown. My guess is Nick Nurse will have Siakam ready for Smart today, and if Stevens decides to go back to that matchup, Toronto’s offense should funnel through Siakam on the block. He’s the glaring mismatch for the Celtics to cover in this series, so if Siakam can stay aggressive without fouling today, I see a huge offensive output coming his way.
SERGE IBAKA (1.4X MULTIPLIER)
My guess is Ibaka will sit way below Jokic and Rudy Gobert in terms of ownership today, so I want you to consider taking some shots on Ibaka in this spot. Ibaka was dynamic at the tail end of the Brooklyn series, averaging almost 50 SuperDraft points in only 21.5 minutes of work the final two games. Obviously Daniel Theis and Robert Williams pose a stronger defensive threat than anything the Nets could muster, but Ibaka’s ability to hit 3’s in these playoffs has only added to his stat-sheet-filling capabilities. If we could get a throwback Ibaka game here with blocks to go along with a double-double, he could be the low-owned tournament winner you’re looking for.
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