It was an interesting weekend of NBA DFS playoff slates with the double-OT win for Toronto at home and the continued dominance of Portland by Golden State despite a fairly canny pivot by coach Terry Stotts with Meyers Leonard’s mostly effective start. Portland’s season is now on death’s door with an injured Damian Lillard gutting his way through the series but there should still be some solid NBA DFS production from a few spots whether the Blazers are able to stave off elimination or if they go out with a whimper versus the defending champs. Can Meyers and Draymond do it again? What changes in Game 3 can we expect to carry over and which may be materially different in Game 4? I’ll walk you through what I see for tonight’s NBA DFS single-game Showdown slate based on the data we value here at Awesemo.com, my own game-watching, and everything else relevant for tonight’s win or stay home Game 4 between Golden State and Portland.
Golden State Warriors (111 implied points, -6.7 on season average) at Portland Trailblazers (108 implied points, -6.4 on season average)
-Golden State is lightly favored to sweep the series on the road and it seems like Draymond Green’s contributions would be impossible to ignore. He’s been a different man since shedding weight heading into the playoffs and with an average of 52.6 FP this series, I’ll be willing to pay up for him a lot today, particularly given Andre Iguodala’s health issues. He’s been quoted publicly as wanting to sweep the series to get nine days of rest before the Finals and the performance seems unlikely to fall off a cliff based on what we’ve seen thus far. I’ll have him a lot both in regular spots and as a Captain.
–Steph Curry had something of a tough Game 3 with just 11-for-26 shooting but he still had that much usage, 16 attempts from three, and 48.5 FP. I would still find him hard to fade even if it’s likely a decent tournament move to switch off of him at Captain some since he’ll likely be the chalkiest option there.
–Klay Thompson has at least 20 shot attempts in each game this series and his price came down a bit despite 39.25 FP in Game 3. He can go cold and fail but it seems unlikely he sees any less opportunity so I’m still very interested in him and anticipate having a whole lot of Klay/Steph/Dray in lineups today.
–Andre Iguodala’s been pretty iffy all series with a high of 20.25 FP and his questionable status could make him worth a few lineups worth of exposure if he is ruled in. But mostly I can’t imagine getting there today and it seems like a decent possibility they let him rest with a calf issue they cannot afford to see in the Finals.
-If Iguodala sits, Alfonzo McKinnie seems the most likely to pick up some minutes and he was actually decent with 18.25 FP in 21 minutes in Game 3. Still not a dude I’d trust at a ton of volume but he can be a useful value to cram the key players in.
–Kevon Looney had a down Game 3 with 14.75 FP in 27 minutes with his rebounding really taking a hit, perhaps due to being stretched out a bit with his positioning due to Meyers Leonard spacing the floor. Looney is still seeing the minutes and remains the most viable of the main three bigs on Golden State of him, Damian Jones, and Andrew Bogut.
–Jordan Bell started the second half for the foul-prone three minutes played starter Damian Jones and was a huge asset comparatively with 13.5 FP in 15 minutes. He’s cheap and would be my favorite of the value guys since he seems likely to earn a bit more minutes though he’s likely to cede crunch time minutes to Looney unless things get weird rotationally if Iguodala’s out. Bell and McKinnie were both in Golden State’s best per-minute group in Game 3 while one with Looney and McKinnie was just behind them.
–Shaun Livingston may also be a bit interesting in an MME Showdown situation given that he was in two of GS’s best plus-minus groups in Game 3 and seems likely to take some of Iguodala’s minutes if he’s out. Neither he nor McKinnie likely offer a massive upside but Iguodala’s absence will give them a chance at being useful value that gets other guys in your lineup.
-The most edge to be found in this slate besides Iguodala’s status is the Portland bigs. Meyers Leonard was an awesome low-owned option as a last-minute starter who was in some of my stronger Showdown lineups including one where him at Captain allowed me to load up on all the elite talent. With his price up he’s a bit less of a guy to force in but he’s been a 0.92 FPPM player all year and if he sees around 30 minutes again he should get a lot of chances (even though he was perpetually in foul trouble that Terry Stotts mostly ignored to keep him on the floor). His 6-for-12 shooting in Game 3 was not an aberration if he gets that usage again with him shooting 54% on the year as well as 45% from three.
–Zach Collins played minutes next to both Leonard and Enes Kanter and the Collins/Kanter lineup was Portland’s best plus-minus group in Game 3 (also aided by not having Steph Curry across from them). Kanter played only seven minutes so it’s hard to justify any exposure to him even with a 49% usage rate (!!) in his stints. But Collins had 21 FP in 20 minutes and interests me with his price super low as both a pivot to a likely decently owned Leonard and one you can play alongside him.
–Damian Lillard reportedly has a separated rib sustained in Game 2 and his shooting does reflect that with 5-for-18 in Game 3 and 6-for-16 in Game 2. He says it’s not meaningfully affecting him other than the pain but a rib injury for a shooter who needs to extend for full effectiveness versus tight defense seems really suboptimal. Dame is still work some exposure because he can work in a tournament winning lineup but I’ll have less of him than I’ve had so far this series.
–CJ McCollum seems like he should pick up some of the slack as much as the defense allows and he did have 20 shot attempts in Game 3 even though he only made seven of them. He also put up 10 three point attempts but only hit two so his price does offer a bit of upside.
–Seth Curry cratered from a fantasy perspective with just 10 FP on 2-for-6 shooting but he was out there for 30 minutes in Game 3. I’ll have some exposure but still wouldn’t load up because he can heat up and force more usage or get sort of lost from an offensive perspective.
–Mo Harkless is still semi-interesting but much like Al-Farouq Aminu his per-minute effectiveness doesn’t seem like it’ll win him many more minutes. Harkless had 26 minutes in Game 3, slightly up from 23 in Game 2 while Aminu was down to 13 minutes despite averaging around 1 FPPM in his last two games. Portland seems to want to emphasize shooting and playmaking with the changes they’ve made so while I don’t hate some attempts at being contrarian and rostering these guys, particularly Harkless, the more logical outcome is more minutes for Curry or Evan Turner (though Harkless did replace Leonard as a small-ball center in the last five minutes after the Warriors went on a run with Leonard on the floor).
-Turner had 18.75 FP in 17 minutes and more run for him would likely pay some fantasy dividends given his contributions in rebounds, assists, and some scoring (he even hit his first three of the playoffs in Game 3!). I’d take him over Aminu and at this point probably over Rodney Hood too who seemed played off the floor in favor of the other guys in the rotation. A little Hood still doesn’t hurt since he can heat up if he actually sees opportunity, it just seems less likely he does get that in a meaningful way.
—
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys tomorrow for another Awesemo.com NBA DFS Playoff Primer.
