NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Is There Any Hope Left For Eric Bledsoe? (FREE)

It looked like a situation where Milwaukee would be primed to take a 3-1 lead in Game 4 with an exhausted Kawhi Leonard and mostly outgunned Raptors squad across from them in our last NBA DFS Showdown slate. But instead, the Raptors were in full “We The North” mode as they bonded together to unleash a surprising 18 point win at home to even the series. With both teams defending their home courts, it’s now a brand new series as we return to Milwaukee for Game 5 and there are a lot of questions for this game from a real-life and NBA DFS perspective with the Bucks currently favored by seven at home. How hurt are Leonard and Kyle Lowry after public conversation about their injuries? Will Milwaukee’s role players rise to the occasion back at home much like Toronto’s did? Will any of the guys who’ve recently underperformed like Eric Bledsoe (the bane of my existence) or Pascal Siakam have a shot at getting back on track tonight?

I’ll walk you through what I see based on the data, game watching, and our NBA DFS Showdown ownership projections to build lineups tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel. Step on in for another Awesemo.com NBA DFS Playoff Primer for Game 5 between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks.

Toronto Raptors (104 implied points, -10.4 on season average) at Milwaukee Bucks (111 implied points, -7.1 on season average)

-The Raptors stole Game 4 in a surprising blowout largely on the strength of the supporting cast with Kawhi Leonard not quite himself despite a steady diet of defense from Khris Middleton that he’d been able to beat recently. He was still in the top tournament lineups despite a mediocre 6-for-13 shooting day with 40.75 FP so I’m still not inclined to move away from him even though his exhaustion was palpable to the naked eye without much lift on his jumpshot and less of the frenetic action he’s shown throughout the series. I’d prefer him as a regular roster spot than a Captain but I can see having a bit of both.

Kyle Lowry was the bigger story for the Raptors with a resurgent 41.25 FP effort with 25 real life points, including 10-for-10 from the line. Lowry is also banged up with an injured finger which popped out before halftime and was splinted post-game. He was less productive in the second half after suffering the injury but not enough so to be totally spooked off of him. His rising price may be a more valid reason to move away.

In particular Pascal Siakam being cheaper than Lowry is one reason I may shy away. Siakam had a brutal day with 20 FP in 23 foul-prone minutes, a contributor to why Serge Ibaka was so meaningfully able to exceed value. Siakam has been somewhat out of his depth this series and Ibaka looked significantly better out there from an eye test and statistical level with Ibaka in the two best plus-minus groups that did not feature Siakam. But that should result in a lower owned Pascal and I’m willing to get ownership on him as a result.

Marc Gasol has been a steady presence with 31 minutes and 41.25 FP and he’s just been better overall in the last two games. Maybe it’s the home cooking but he had seven assists in Games 3 and 4 and showed more willingness to pop threes with eight and six attempts respectively so I’m in on Gasol with his price flat despite his hot run and the fact that people may come off of him because he wasn’t in top scoring lineups despite his good game.

Serge Ibaka had 39.25 FP in 24 minutes in Game 4 in which his athleticism really shined through with him wreaking havoc on the boards and with powerful slashes to the rim followed up by violent dunks. I’ll have some exposure to him again today even though that game felt a bit like lightning in a bottle but I’m less inclined to pay for him in lineups with Siakam and to a lesser extent ones with Gasol.

Norman Powell picked up 30 minutes for his second straight game and he responded with over 30 FP again despite a poor shooting 6-for-18 day with 4-for-13 from deep. The opportunity is there and his slash and score/kick game as well as willingness to jack threes plus a 40% shooting clip from deep on the year make him viable despite the rising price.

Danny Green lurks as the pivot to Powell, though he was mostly outplayed by Powell offensively without Green showing enough to offer defensively to balance it out. Green’s 10.25 FP in 25 min in Game 4 were a series low but he’s also failed to crack 20 FP thus far vs. Milwaukee. Green also played some minutes alongside Powell so he’s not a 1:1 swap but he seems like a forgotten man who can be useful primarily as a low-owned salary filler with a vague bit of upside.

Fred VanVleet also had his best game of the series with 26.25 FP in 25 minutes one day after his son’s birth, a delightful bit of narrative that he specifically credited as the reason for his big day. His price is low enough that I don’t mind some stabs at him with his salary likely to open up some solid configurations.

Giannis Antetokounmpo saw slightly abridged run with the game getting away from Milwaukee but he still had 53 FP in 34 minutes. Giannis saw the most Kawhi defense this series in Game 4 with 34 possessions of Kawhi stuck to him, almost quadruple his next most frequent defender. A closer to healthy Kawhi can mean more trouble but Giannis will be my first choice for a Captain today. I believe having him in that spot offers some safety to your lineups and also the most likely outcome to be the #1 scoring configuration. It’s worth noting Giannis has only been the Captain in a winning Showdown lineup just once this series so if you expect someone else to have an outlier day approaching Giannis’s expected fantasy output, it’s not a crazy move to push your lineup that way as well (even if I’d be super reluctant to fade him overall in any lineup).

Khris Middleton thrived in the sunlight of a life without the most Kawhi defense and, thanks to Kawhi’s decreased effectiveness with his injuries/exhaustion, he was also 3-for-3 in possessions against him. Middleton as Captain was the best possible lineup last game thanks to him scoring just three less fantasy points than Giannis but it seems unlikely he gets quite that high again with him shooting 11-for-16 with six boards and seven assists in Game 4.

Eric Bledsoe is an absolutely infuriating player I keep going back to in the hopes he sucks less and he continues to suck even harder each time out with his 20 minutes, seven shot attempts, and 11.75 FP in Game 4 a series low. I’ll be with the field on him again because I’m a sucker and the return home could make him more effective with his price also now extremely reasonable. But I won’t begrudge you skipping out on him with every other guard and player really looking better than him thus far this series.

Malcolm Brogdon had a down game with 14.75 FP on 2-for-11 shooting and I don’t mind going to him. His price is now less dumb than when he was priced higher than Bledsoe and Middleton but he’s still a bit more expensive than he likely should be.

Brook Lopez seemed to be in more of a three-headed big man situation with Nikola Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova in Game 4, though that may have been a function of foul trouble for Lopez in the second half. I have no issue going back to him but more so in lineups that expect poor production from Middleton and Bledsoe and likely ones without Mirotic and Ilyasova.

Nikola Mirotic had 16.25 FP in 25 minutes of Game 4 but he did hoist eight threes, hitting just two of them. Ilyasova had a slightly better 16.5 FP in 18 minutes with far less usage. Neither is a must have but their salaries can help a lot to get the higher priced pieces in so I think I want equal amounts of both, especially given that Mirotic currently projects for double the ownership.

George Hill’s price is far more reasonable this game and he had 27 minutes last game, though the big day for Middleton likely cut substantially into his usage as Hill put up only two shot attempts. Hill’s price is cheap enough that I’ll have some of him and even though he and Bledsoe share court time, I’d prefer to not have them both in the same lineups.

Pat Connaughton is on the edge of playable largely due to his price. He’s been a nonfactor this series but he sees 12-13 minutes a game and he can certainly be a guy who heats up in front of the home crowd, a spot where role players tend to bring it a bit more.


Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys again soon for another Awesemo.com NBA DFS Playoff Primer. Good luck!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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