Monday escalated quickly after lock, as tournaments were won and lost by those who were acutely aware of the changes that needed to be made as the news rolled in. While I’m happy with most of the pivots I made to get more Khris Middleton and E’Twaun Moore, the lack of LeBron James in the late-night hammer was a definite mistake, which was only amplified by the overtime. But today is a new day, and we have got a lush seven-gamer to set our sights on. So let’s get right to finding a few NBA DFS picks to utilize over on NBA $500K Pull Up Jumper on DraftKings and $500K Tuesday NBA Clutch Shot on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | Feb. 9
Maybe It’s Déjà Vu, and Maybe It’s Déjà Vu
One of the strange scheduling quirks for this NBA season is the necessity for “home-and-home” matchups. That is, the home team hosts a road team for back-to-back games, something that’s never been done so long as I can recall. That way it limits the chances of a team-wide COVID outbreak by cutting down on the constant travel a professional basketball team surely requires.
While the cumulative abilities of the NBA DFS public is far better than in years past, recency bias is still most definitely a thing. And while blatantly mispriced players will still garner ownership, such as DeMarcus Cousins, who somehow didn’t receive a price hike on FanDuel ($6,000), it seems as though whatever happens in the first matchup of these home-and-homes has strongly influenced ownership of the second one. That could provide us with an edge if we don’t simply box-score watch and instead buy low on some plays that burned us in the first go-around, as well as fade a few that went off.
In the buy-low category, I won’t cop out by saying “Cousins” and moving on. That would be too easy, and you don’t need me to tell you a $6,000 Cousins (so long as he plays) is an elite play on FanDuel. So I’m instead buying into Keldon Johnson, who performed like a literal trash can for the third outing in a row. Nothing about those games is indicative of who he should profile to be with LaMarcus Aldridge off the floor, yet his price has remained stagnant at $5,300 on FanDuel for this identical matchup against the Warriors. My guess is we wil see a stark drop-off in his ownership as a result, and I’m here for overweight approach in hopes he can spike the kind of shooting upside that led to 48.5 FanDuel points against the Grizzlies just four games ago.
And for a fade on this very same Spurs team, I’m planning a lighter approach to Dejounte Murray on Tuesday. Don’t get me wrong, I love the kid and I love how point guards have throttled the Warriors of late. But after a 65-FanDuel-point performance on Monday, expect some drastically increased ownership. That means it’s time for me to hop off and roster the aforementioned Johnson and DeMar DeRozan, who is starting to assert himself on the offensive end once more.
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Hard to Fade Harden
The Nets are terrible at defense. The Pistons are terrible at everything. That means the first game of the slate will, for the second day in a row, be pivotal in determining your NBA DFS fate.
Let’s get the fact that James Harden and Kyrie Irving are elite options on this slate out of the way. Both are well over a fantasy point per minute, and now you’re taking a perturbed Kevin Durant off the floor. While I thoroughly enjoy the discount I receive on both sites by rostering Irving, Harden has been a walking triple-double of late. He also locks in those raw points at a shooting guard that drops of steeply from his $10,900 salary on DraftKings to everyone else at $8,100 and under. He’ll be the most popular spend-up on this slate, and with good reason.
While the Nets guards will surely be popular, I would be remiss not to at least mention the Pistons ones too. Every single one of them has the scarlet “Q” printed next to their name, with the exception of Saben Lee, who I know literally zero about and I cover a disturbing amount of basketball. Keep close eye on that news, as Josh Jackson could be thrust into starting point guard duty should Delon Wright be inactive or Dennis Smith not be eligible to make his Pistons debut.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups
- With Victor Oladipo already announced as sitting for Tuesday, John Wall will definitely interest me. Although Eric Gordon will also be back, the absence of Christian Wood makes Wall a sensational mid-range option.
- Mitchell Robinson is $5,000 on DraftKings, and somehow I’m still not interested. Should I be interested? I could easily be talked back into this, but I’m going to need verbal confirmation from someone that hasn’t been burnt by him 842 times this season like me.
- I promise I’ll get into some more process-driven Slate Starter articles soon, but it’s been a blast to set the table on these slates of late. Speaking of setting the table, The Tip-Off show that precedes the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock show on the Awesemo YouTube channel made its debut on Monday. Be sure to catch Round 2 Tuesday with host Kayla Knierim, co-analyst Greg Ehrenberg and yours truly on Tuesday. We’ll go live at 4 p.m. EST, giving you all the relevant injury news, comparing some of our favorite NBA DFS plays at various price points and even throwing in a prop bet or two for your betting pleasure.
- Just play Jerami Grant.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
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