After just a handful of games last night we’re fully loaded with 10 games to consider for tonight’s NBA DFS slate. There’s a difference of 35.5 points expected between the game with the highest Vegas total (ATL-NO) and the lowest (ORL-MIA) so we’ve got diverse options, as well as a few games that’ll be highly popular and risky as can be. I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
Learn more about today’s slate by trying out a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman and rankings from Fast Eddie Fear, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you 50% off the first month of any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now!
HEDGE: Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
-The Hawks get a nice 6.9 point boost on their season average while the Pelicans get a 5.1 point boost on theirs in a game with a slate-high 240 combined total
–Trae Young projects for the most ownership at 26% in a game where the rotation for other side is questionable at best. But Trae’s had at least 11 assists in his last three games and the pace and space should provide him some legitimate upside if his usage continues to be as high as it has recently, 33% and 38% in his last two games. Trae’s playmaking makes him feel mostly safe here with a chance to spike a ceiling day
-The rebounding and some easy shots at the rim make this an appealing spot for John Collins and though recently he and Trae have siphoned usage away from each other, the expected pace in this one makes it seem like they may be worth some exposure together
–Dewayne Dedmon is a reasonably priced play with some upside; he played over 27 minutes in his last two and has been over 33.5 FP in three out of his last four so his per-minute effectiveness is at least a little interesting even if he may not have enough of a ceiling for a slate of this size
-I’d take Taurean Prince over Kevin Huerter with Prince having shown more usage and a more secure role recently, though Huerter did have a 40 FP 11-for-18 day the last time they faced New Orleans earlier this month
–Alex Len could also do some damage with the high teens/low 20s minutes he’s received recently and he has shown massive upside in limited run previously when the matchup aligns
-The Pelicans have been blown out in their last two and the starters have also been ineffective and lethargic so it’s tough to know what to expect here. Vegas clearly expects some scoring and ownership right now has Julius Randle as the most owned with 17% expected. He does look good on a projection basis but I’d be a little concerned with going too far above the field out of fear he doesn’t go full effort or sits the fourth quarter yet again
–Elfrid Payton is currently questionable after two hideous games following his run of triple doubles and his absence or continued ineffectiveness would like benefit Frank Jackson as a primary ball handler. If Payton were in, I’d take a few cracks at him given the cake matchup but if he’s out, Jackson has over 31.5 FP in two out of his last three and would only stand to improve with less competition for PG minutes
–Kenrich Williams looks okay but his per-minute production has been so spotty that he wouldn’t be worth trusting for much more than his 7% projected ownership. Kenrich, Cheick Diallo, and Stanley Johnson are vaguely interesting as value but it feels risky for all of these guys with the starters still seeing minutes and potentially able to see more if the game isn’t a debacle
SWITCH: Los Angeles Lakers vs Washington Wizards
-The Lakers get a 6.1 point boost while the Wizards get a 1.5 boost on their season average in a game with a 233.5 combined total
–LeBron James’ minutes restriction has seemed to quietly evaporate as LeBron talks about “appeasing basketball Gods” with his play to fill his PR quota while the team is out of the playoffs. After at least 35 minutes in his last three games, I’m comfortable going to him at a very reasonable $10,2000 on DraftKings. LeBron has put up at least 22 shots in his last seven games, up from his season average of 19.9, and the matchup does allow tons of rebounding and assist upside as well if he continues exerting maximum effort
–Rajon Rondo has continued to crater with LeBron in the lineup taking ball handling time so I’m not as into his 16% expected ownership. Maybe it breaks differently for him but the 17.25 and 23.75 FP performances in his last two alongside LeBron are the kind of floor you can’t afford on a 10-game slate
–Javale McGee’s ownership should rise throughout the day with his price up currently leaving him at 3% expected ownership. McGee has 72 and 47 FP in his last two games and the spot does seem like another where he could continue to thrive with points and rebounds. His five and six blocks in those two games may be tougher to repeat against a Wizards team who gets blocked only 4.5 times per game but McGee does seem worth some ownership given this matchup fitting the bill of how he succeeded in these last few efforts
–Kentavious Caldwell-Pope took 15 shots, including 12 from deep, vs Sacramento and those kind of looks could pay off far more vs Washington. His price isn’t the best but he has some upside at under 10% expected ownership
–Kyle Kuzma hasn’t shown much of a ceiling lately but this is a perfectly reasonable spot in which he could do so. He received 40 minutes last game and that kind of run could lead to easy peripherals vs Washington
–Lance Stephenson returned to the lineup with 25 minutes last game and this spot looks good for him again as value with some degree of upside as a pivot to more popular value today
–Thomas Bryant projects for 32% ownership and with his new starting role he received over 35 minutes in the last two games while putting up over 33.25 FP. His price is reasonable and he did show extra effort vs his former team in LA earlier this year in one of his breakout efforts back in December with 30.75 FP in 28 minutes
–Bobby Portis’s minutes have been solid as a result of no longer competing with Bryant for them and though Bryant hurts his rebounding upside, the scoring and pace give him a shot today
–Tomas Satoransky’s price is up after four out of five games over 33.5 FP and he could have some assist upside with the pace and lax defense of these current Lakers. I don’t mind him even though his price does hurt his upside a bit
–Bradley Beal’s minutes have come down to the mid-30s after being at or above 40 minutes while the Wizards were more in the playoff race and it’s hard to justify Beal’s rate if he’s not seeing borderline excessive run. It’s a fine spot but I’d probably rather save money and go elsewhere
–Jabari Parker’s minutes have been cut despite Trevor Ariza’s absence thanks to Troy Brown getting more run and Portis shifting down to the 4 with Bryant. Neither Parker nor Brown are guys I want much of but Brown is an okayish value who seems unlikely to have too much ceiling
HEDGE: Minnesota Timberwolves vs LA Clippers
-The Timberwolves get a 1.6 point boost on their season average while the Clippers get a 1.3 point boost on theirs in a game with a 230 combined total
-Given the noted struggles of the Clippers vs centers and the injuries on Minnesota’s side, it’s hard not to love Karl-Anthony Towns today. His price is up but he just put up 71.25 FP in a tougher spot vs Memphis so I’d want to at least match the field’s 25% expected ownership knowing his upside
–Andrew Wiggins’ price up makes him a little less appealing but he’s still involved enough in the offense to theoretically spike some upside
–Tyus Jones and Josh Okogie look a little more secure than Wiggins with Okogie in particular close to a value play who’s also been over 33 FP in three of his last four games
–Danilo Gallinari’s price is up a bit too high for me though defensively this spot should allow him some upside, particularly from three thanks to the Wolves’ slate high 37.7% allowed from deep. He put up 10 threes last game with a 32% usage rate and that could be valuable despite his rising price
–Lou Williams interests me too for the same reasons and his price now less than second unit mate Montrezl Harrell. Both guys are in decent spots but I’d favor the primary ball handler with an easy matchup, though Harrell projects for far less ownership
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on a nice run of consistency with five straight over 28 FP but his price is now up high enough where he likely doesn’t have enough of a ceiling to do too much. I’d consider him in a game stack but I’m not sure I see it for him as much more than a Lou Will pivot
HEDGE: Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
-The Raptors get a 2.2 point boost on their season average while the Bulls get a 2.1 point drop on theirs in a game with a 219.5 combined total
–Shaq Harrison and Antonio Blakeney both project for 47% ownership with Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, and Otto Porter all expected out for this matchup, a gigantic usage vacuum for the rest to fill. Harrison averaged 26 FP in his three starts recently while Blakeney has mostly stunk in his starting stints for LaVine thus far. Without Dunn removed from the equation too, they’ll get a shot but the defense can certainly make this a situation where the chalk goes bad fast
–Ryan Arcidiacono projects for 26% ownership with him likely to start for Dunn and he has done fairly well when given an unimpeded chance to run the offense. He’s still just a .67 FPPM guy on the year so he comes with some risk but there’s just too much usage available to totally avoid him
–Lauri Markkanen got 20 shots last game and hit just six of them en route to a 34 FP day. He showed 61 FP upside vs Washington the game before that but one has to imagine he’ll have a tougher time vs the rangy Raptors bigs with no one of quality to divert the attention. Despite that, I’d still be afraid about going too far under his 30% ownership because he simply has a ton of upside because there’s just no one left here
–Kyle Lowry got 28 minutes in his return to the lineup vs Charlotte but that was due to the score differential more than his health with him reportedly at 100%ish now. He has some assist upside if he comes out aggressively but the Raptors should be able to score easily across the boards so it’s certainly possible usage flows away from him
–Kawhi Leonard looks steady other than the risk of a blowout with the 13 point spread. With how Pascal Siakam’s price is closing in on Kawhi’s (relatively speaking), it might more logical to just take Kawhi at this point
HEDGE: Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets
-The Bucks get a 3 point drop on their season average while the Rockets get a 2.6 point drop on theirs in a game with a 225 combined total
-In a game with the two top MVP contenders, I have a little interest in Giannis Antetokuompo here. The depressed totals and pace-down for Milwaukee aren’t great but this should be a playoff atmosphere for two potential Finals contenders and Giannis may have to do a lot in close space to keep his team afloat
–Khris Middleton also interests me a little bit with his usage up since Malcolm Brogdon went out and some nice results in games with Giannis and out. Not a ton of interest but he could be sneaky
–James Harden is the other spot I’m willing to go here with 70.75 FP vs Milwaukee in their last matchup and Chris Paul in the lineup to take a little pressure off of him in this one. Harden scored at least 80.25 FP in three of his last six games and the games in which he’s let off the pedal have been ones which the Rockets had mostly in hand. This one should be tight so as long as one team doesn’t get boat raced, Harden’s 16% ownership seems more than fair, especially if the questionable Eric Gordon is ruled out
-It also wouldn’t shock me to see PJ Tucker get a stupid amount of three point looks with how the Bucks defense operates. He shot 2-for-7 from deep the last time they met
SWITCH: Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings
-The Mavs get a 4.1 point boost on their season average while the Kings are flat with theirs in a game with a 226 point combined total
–Luka Doncic is currently questionable but he had an outlandish 62.75 FP effort in 27 minutes of a shocking blowout win vs Golden State in his last start. He’s minutes limited right now, seemingly capped at just under 30, but he could roll downhill enough to be useful with his price coming down. It’s a tough margin but the 5% ownership expected for him is interesting
–Dirk Nowitzki projects for 16% ownership after a 35.25 FP start vs Golden State in 26 minutes. His run has been unpredictable with two games out of his last five of 26+ min while the rest were between 12-14 so it’s hard to fully support more than a lineup or two of Dirk and, even then, the ceiling feels iffy
–Jalen Brunson would interest me more with Luka ruled out with him having shown some upside previously in that situation. He and Dwight Powell would be likely to be more involved and while both are playable with Luka, they can become focal points without him
–Justin Jackson is an okay value guy; he’s been mostly productive in starts for the Mavs with two games of at least 26.75 FP and run of 33+ minutes
–Trey Burke would be a little more interesting too with Luka out; he’s decent value already with him receiving around 20 minutes since Tim Hardaway went out but he’d likely see more lead ball handling time if Luka sits
–Harrison Barnes is an interesting play at under 5% expected ownership in his first return to Dallas. He left about as amicably as one can so it’s hard to say it’s “revenge” but it’s a nice spot regardless for him even if he always can disappoint
–Marvin Bagley put up 47.5 FP vs the Mavs a week ago and while his rising price is not the best, he certainly is capable of filling up the box score again
-It’s not a great three point spot with the Mavs allowing 34.6% from deep but I don’t mind Buddy Hield here at cheaper than De’Aaron Fox. Hield had 45 FP in the last matchup vs Dallas
-I’m not dying to point chase Bogdan Bogdanovic’s first decent day in a while in which he got back up to 30 minutes but he’s an interesting valueish guy with some of the more specious value options out there
SWITCH: Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs
-The Spurs get a 2.5 point drop on their season average while the Spurs are flat with theirs in a game with a 219.5 combined total
–Miles Bridges is another interesting counter to the higher owned value at just 5% expected ownership despite three straight games of at least 27.5 FP and a high of 40.25 FP. Bridges has been super efficient since Nic Batum and Marvin Williams were sort of shunted to the background and while it’s not a great matchup, he can be useful
-Even as his peers ramp down, Kemba Walker is playing for third-team All NBA and the contract escalators that come with that so he’s remained full effort and actually had a monster 54.5 FP day vs Toronto despite 3-for-17 shooting from the floor. I don’t mind going to him here with some of the Spurs’ struggles against lead guards
–Willy Hernangomez received at least 17 min in the last three Hornets games and he interests me more as a value than a low points per minute guy like Dwayne Bacon
-I’d go to DeMar DeRozan rather than point chase LaMarcus Aldridge after he beat up on a Celtics team without Al Horford but both guys look fine enough at their current price points
–Derrick White is up and down in terms of performance and minutes load so while he’s at an interesting price, I don’t know that I’d want to force myself to get to his 15% expected ownership
HEDGE: Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
-The Cavs get a 2.1 point boost on their season average while the Celtics get a 1 point drop on theirs in a game with a 218 point combined total
-No Kyrie Irving for the Celtics due to rest means there’s some opportunity to go around and the ownership is really pushing towards Marcus Smart with 29% expected for him. Cleveland’s less turnover prone than they may think so you’re likely hoping Smart bombs on them with the opportunity. I’m comfortable with going under the field
-I’m not dying to pay full freight for Terry Rozier, priced all the way up for the day without Kyrie. Rozier can have upside here so he may be an interesting contrarian option but I wouldn’t bank on him at volume
–Al Horford is substantially cheaper than Rozier and also benefits from no Kyrie. If he’s in after currently being marked questionable, he’s a solid play with two straight games over 39.5 FP. If he’s out, Aron Baynes is a mildly interesting value play
–Gordon Hayward would be an interesting play again if the questionable Jayson Tatum is ruled out with coach Brad Stevens saying he was unlikely to get back in today; Hayward had 31.5 FP in 34 min starting for Tatum vs San Antonio and this matchup bodes much better
-Overall the lineup news here seems key. With no Horford or Tatum, I think Rozier becomes more appealing. With no Tatum, I’m in on Hayward. And though Jaylen Brown disappointed some folks on Sunday, he’s in a nice spot again off the bench regardless of who’s in
–Larry Nance got 30 minutes and a start last game and he could be destructive vs the Celtics if Horford is out. At under 10% ownership, I’m interested
–Kevin Love’s 53.25 FP vs Milwaukee was right up there with his best performances this year and the 21 shots he took were the most he’s seen since his return. He’s in an interesting spot if the Celtics are as depleted as they may be with under 5% ownership expected
–Jordan Clarkson’s been decent recently but he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling with everyone available for the Cavs. I’d take him over Cedi Osman though at this point, a player who’s been deeply cut into by Larry Nance’s return
HEDGE: Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets
-The Nuggets get a 3 point drop on their season average while the Pistons get a 6 point drop on theirs in a game with a 210.5 combined total
-The Pistons’ side interests me more here with more consolidated usage if they’re able to stay in the game. Andre Drummond has had two tough games in a row but he put up 53 FP in 26 min of a blowout win vs Denver last time they met in early February. It’s not a great rebounding spot on paper but Drummond is an interesting foil for the Nuggets bigs. I want to match his 9% ownership expected
–Blake Griffin has been steady recently after his down run with three straight over 41.75 FP. He hasn’t rebounded or assisted with as much gusto recently but perhaps a competitive spot vs Denver where they’ll really need him can bring out his ceiling one more time
-The Nuggets side I’m not dying for with a low paced game and so many guys competing for shots. Nikola Jokic is always alright and you could see Jamal Murray or Paul Millsap be useful relative to their salaries but it’s hard to imagine a ceiling day coming from anyone in this matchup
HEDGE: Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
-The Magic get a 6.6 point drop on their season average while the Heat get 1.1 point drop on theirs in a game with a slate-low 204.5 combined total
–Nikola Vucevic is the one guy I’m looking at the most here at 13% expected ownership. The Magic didn’t see their full run in the front half of their back-to-back thanks to the Sixers crapping all over themselves yesterday so Vuc should be fresh for a battle of Florida he’s mostly underperformed in this year with no regular season game above 40 FP
-As I mentioned yesterday, I’m up for riding Evan Fournier’s hot hand with three straight games of at least 34.75 FP. He’s streaky as hell and his usage has been up so even though the Heat D can be onerous, he’s a little interesting to me at under 5% ownership
–Aaron Gordon has suffered a bit for Fournier’s recent success and with two games over 50 FP this year vs Miami, he could be an interesting pivot to both guys also at under 5% ownership
-The Heat side isn’t super appealing. Josh Richardson always projects decently for me but he’s shown little upside and his price is up a ton after two decent games in his last three
-It may be a time to hope Goran Dragic has one of his random games where he averages an absurd amount of points per minute but he or Dwyane Wade are about as far as I would dig here with it hard to trust much of the roles and rotations
—
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and watch out for my short-form Four Corners video and me on Live Before Lock on the Awesemo YouTube later today!
