NBA DFS Switch and Hedge: D’Angelo Russell Looks To Continue His Hot Streak In A Revenge Spot Vs The Lakers

We’ve got an interesting NBA DFS slate tonight with a few games that look exceedingly appealing, a few that look like complete disasters, and a few rematches of games played within the last seven days that will likely result in high ownership for players expected to repeat their performances. It seemed like we were able to avoid a few landmines yesterday and unearth some low-owned value (thanks Mavs) and the more attention we pay down the stretch as rotations get wonky and teams’ motivations grow more questionable, the better shot we’ll all have at survival. With that in mind, I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.

Learn more about today’s slate by trying out a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman and rankings from Fast Eddie Fear, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you 50% off the first month of any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now!

SWITCH: Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers

-The Nets get a 4.2 point boost on their season average while the Lakers get a 3 point boost on theirs in a game with a 230.5 combined total

D’Angelo Russell went for 77 FP in his last game vs Sacramento, had 58.25 FP the game before that vs the Clippers, and has shot at least 25 times in his last three games. Now he returns to his former team who dumped him unceremoniously and has struggled vs point guards and you can see where I’m going here. Russell projects for just 15% currently and while he can certainly bomb out, this doesn’t look like the spot for that with the Nets seemingly rounding into playoff mode

Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert bombed out last game as they underperformed then lost minutes down the stretch to a crunch time group including Jared Dudley, Traveon Graham, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson who brought the Nets back from a big deficit to beat Sacramento. Dinwiddie and LeVert are both viable pivots to Russell if he were to pick up more ownership but it does fully look like DRuss’s show right now

-It’s a nice spot for Jarrett Allen but with his price up a little and his minutes still insecure, I wouldn’t want much. Ed Davis obviously gets the same benefit vs the poor rebounding Lakers who allow a slate high 11.4 offense boards and 47.1 rebounds overall but neither feels terribly secure

LeBron James is expected back for this one and I don’t totally hate him with his price down and most of the other stars not in the greatest spots on paper. The 9% ownership expected for him feels about right

Kyle Kuzma has been pretty disappointing down the stretch but he did have a good game vs Brooklyn earlier this year with a 43.25 FP 9-for-21 shooting day. His usage hasn’t been that high recently and will come back downward with LeBron out there but I’m not opposed to a few shots at him

Rajon Rondo should lose some ball-handling time with LeBron back with his usage rate falling to 7% vs the Knicks in the last game LeBron was active for. I’m not crazy about Rondo with the Nets closing out on shooters and cutting into assist upside

-It’s an okay Javale McGee spot with the Nets not great on the boards either but with his price coming up, I wouldn’t want more than the field’s 16% right now

-I also wouldn’t point chase Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s 50.25 FP day vs Milwaukee. He’ll get some looks and he seems to be playing for his next contract right now but with LeBron back and a matchup that won’t give him the looks Milwaukee intentionally did, it’s not a day to pay his rising price

SWITCH: Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers

-The Clippers get a 2.3 point boost on their season average while Cleveland gets a 6.7 point boost on theirs in a game with a 228 combined total

-It’s a big pace down for the Clippers but the Cavs’ porous D should allow them some opportunity. Danilo Gallinari would be the first place I look with him shooting 17 times in his last few games. His price is coming up but he averaged 41.2 FP over his last five games and this spot will give him some quality looks

Patrick Beverley could get there in this situation and he’s been over 31.5 FP in two out of his last three. I’m not sure he has enough of a tournament ceiling with his role currently but he projects decently

Montrezl Harrell has been over 42.25 FP in his last four games and his success is cutting into Lou Williams a bit. Lou projects for almost twice the ownership at 17% to Montrezl’s 9% so I’d be inclined to go to Montrezl but if those numbers switched, targeting a Lou bounceback would make more sense

-This is a spot where Landry Shamet and his 6-10 3PT attempts per game could heat up given the Cavs’ slate high 37.5% allowed from deep. He’s $3,800 on DraftKings and while I certainly don’t trust him, a taste of Shamet works for me

Kevin Love is expected to play but is apparently suffering from an illness in addition to some lower back issues he had previously. He worries me a bit with his price up but if he’s going to be under 5% owned, this does seem like a solid matchup for him particularly on the boards

Larry Nance was hyper productive in just 23 minutes vs Milwaukee and it’s tough to ask him to put up 31.25 FP here (and even that may not be enough upside to justify him in a tournament). But he could get some easy offensive rebounds here and spike a decent day so I wouldn’t hate matching or slightly exceeding the field’s 6% expected ownership

Cedi Osman bombed last game but he’s been steadily in the mid-high 30 FP range besides that. I don’t mind Cedi’s 13% ownership at all, though Nance may cut into his high 30s minutes load enough to make it a little risky

Jordan Clarkson picked up some extra minutes last game and this seems like a nice spot for him with his price low. He hasn’t shown crazy high upside recently but he’s no worse than Collin Sexton whose price is getting stupid high for a scoring dependent guy

HEDGE: Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic

-The Grizzlies get a 3.5 point drop on their season average while Orlando gets a 2.1 point boost on theirs in a game with a 207 combined total

-This is on paper a low-paced, defense heavy matchup but with Mike Conley expected to be out for “soreness,” there’s some value to unearth. Tyler Dorsey projects for 51% ownership right now and while there’s obviously minutes to go around I’d want to be underneath that number with him unlikely to spike a crazy high ceiling

-You could talk me more into Delon Wright’s 39% expected ownership with a reasonable price and a track record of meaningfully exceeding value as a fill-in. Wright averages 0.92 FPPM in court time sans Conley and Avery Bradley and that’s enough to be worth coming close to the field on

Justin Holiday could pick up some shots without Conley but 17% ownership for him feels high too. Ditto Jonas Valanciunas at 33% ownership even though he should get extra usage and is at a reasonable price (he would also benefit some from Joakim Noah being ruled out after currently being marked questionable; Noah would be an interesting play if ruled in with his ability to create offense at the elbow)

Bruno Caboclo played 41 minutes last game vs Houston and his 10 shot attempts were a season high as he put up 27.75 FP. He could be interesting as the lowest owned piece of this group even though he’s a worrisome per-minute guy. He and Chandler Parsons are both projected for 6% ownership and they could be viable value pivots to the higher owned guys in this matchup which will be tough defensively regardless

-If Noah is out, Ivan Rabb could be interesting as a productive per-minute guy who’s unafraid to take usage when he gets a shot

Nikola Vucevic is the expected highest owned Magic player at 16% and I’m okay with that number given how easily abused this skeleton crew Memphis team should be. There’s some blowout risk with the Magic stomping out inferior competition over the last month but he’s still got potential

-I could see playing more Magic guys given that this Grizzlies D should be porous today but there’s a lot of risk with the blowout. A combination of Magic guys in a game stack could be interesting if this game somehow stays competitive with a lot of guys likely to pick up usage on Memphis due to no Conley and, in that situation, I have no issue with anyone on this side really

HEDGE: Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

-The Rockets are flat with their season average while the Spurs get a 4.8 point drop on theirs in a game with a 220 combined total

James Harden blasted Memphis for 88.75 FP in his last game to continue his confusingly torrid season series vs them with the 39 shot attempts he took a season high for the high-usage Harden. The Spurs will throw the kitchen sink at him defensively but he has such a ceiling here with two out of his last four games over 86 FP that it seems logical to match the field’s 20% expected in our ownership projections

Chris Paul is projected for more ownership at 24% and I’m not dying to go there even though he’s obviously a better value. He’s fine but the ceiling hasn’t been there recently and I don’t see a need to have him in that many lineups

Clint Capela put up 55 and 54.75 FP in his last two vs San Antonio and he could be a viable pivot to the high ownership of Paul and Harden with far less people on him. It’s still not a great matchup on paper but the track record is interesting

DeMar DeRozan is over 47.75 FP in his last two games and he seems like the better play vs the Rockets than LaMarcus Aldridge with his role and recent usage. DeRozan is also back crashing the boards again, 15 last game vs a tough rebounding Miami squad, and that aggressiveness could add more value vs the normally lethargic Aldridge

-The Spurs rode their bench last game with Rudy Gay, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli having decent days. I could see going back to Gay but I wouldn’t point chase the other guys (and might even consider going to Derrick White as a bounceback after Mills stole minutes from him vs Miami)

HEDGE: Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

-The Bucks get a 3.4 point drop on their season average while the Heat get a 1 point drop on theirs in a game with a 219 combined total

Giannis Antetokuonmpo is expected back after missing the last two games with ankle issues. He scored 75.5 and 91 FP in his last two and the 75.5 FP came against this very Miami team a week ago with a 33 point-16 rebound-9 assist day. He’s expected to be 18% owned in our ownership projections and getting there for the sake of avoiding a slate breaking situation seems reasonable even despite whatever ankle concerns

Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are priced up thanks to their success with Giannis out and I’d find it hard to play either right now. I’d slightly prefer Middleton with his usage up a bit thanks to Malcolm Brogdon’s absence and a more confident look to his game recently but it’s still a tight margin

Josh Richardson was terrible vs Milwaukee in their last game but he should have a more secure role with Justise Winslow doubtful again. His 13% ownership works well for me despite his questionable ceiling

Derrick Jones projects for an insane 45% ownership as a result of his big run with no Justise and he did pick up 32 minutes last game. Jones put up 16.25 FP in 15 min vs Milwaukee last week so on a per-minute basis I can see wanting to get there with his price so low but I would find Richardson, Goran Dragic or Dwyane Wade in his last game in Milwaukee slightly higher upside plays as pivots

James Johnson has been over 30 FP in his last two games as Kelly Olynyk’s minutes have trickled down and I could take a shot or two with him. The Heat rotation is one of the hardest to pin down in the league

Bam Adebayo is questionable with a hip issue and if he missed, Hassan Whiteside could be in an interesting situation. He had 35.25 FP in 19 minutes last time they played and it’s possible he does that again or Coach Spo ices him on the bench and goes with Olynyk at center to spread the floor; the odds of the former become a little higher if Bam is out

HEDGE: Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

-The Raptors are flat with their season average while the Thunder get a 2.4 point drop on theirs in a game with a 226 combined total

Paul George only put up 14 shots en route to a 36.75 FP day with Kawhi Leonard and PG going head to head defensively for most of the game. He projects for 18% ownership today and I’d be willing to back to him at that level in the hopes this is less of an alpha male defensive battle and becomes more of a scoring based one between those two

Russell Westbrook had the better day with 66.75 FP aided by the OT session (which George missed due to fouling out) and I have no problem going back to him again. He’s been over that 66.75 number in three out of his last four

Jerami Grant took 14 shots last game with George iced for most of the day and only hit three of them; I’d play Grant in some lineups without George with the assumption that if George is faltering it’s because he’s been shut down and his preponderance of shots could funnel over to Grant

Dennis Schroder also shot 16 times last game and he fits a similar but less appealing criteria to Grant vis a vis George

Kawhi Leonard was comparably shut down by George last game but still mustered 48.5 FP with 19 shots. The 31% ownership for him seems high but I can see some upside if this game does go less defensively minded

Fred VanVleet scored over 36 FP in his two games starting without Kyle Lowry since his return and I have no problem with him even though the 37% ownership expected for him does seem pretty high. It’s kind of an ugly slate though so I get wanting to take his assumed guaranteed production

Pascal Siakam did end up benefitting from the attention to Kawhi with a 63.75 FP day where he matched a season high with 21 shot attempts. He and Danny Green both went nuts because of the gameflow and while their 17%ish expected ownership seems high, it makes sense in situations where you’re avoiding Kawhi but playing parts of this one

HEDGE: New York Knicks vs Denver Nuggets

-The Knicks get a 3.3 point drop on their season average while Denver gets a 1 point boost on theirs in a game with a 215 combined total

Kadeem Allen is expected back so it won’t be a completely unencumbered spot for Emmanuel Mudiay, currently projected for 22% ownership. Mudiay projects well for me so I’m okay matching the field on him as long as Frank Ntilikina remains out but playing some Allen as a pivot makes sense if he’s in

Kevin Knox made the most of Allonzo Trier’s injury with a 44 FP day vs a tough Utah squad, playing FORTY SEVEN minutes in that game. He likely benefitted from both Trier and Vonleh’s absences from a minutes perspective so I’d watch the questionable Vonleh’s status to see if Knox becomes a little safer

Mario Hezonja continues to be usable value with two out of his last three games over 27 FP and while this matchup is tough, if the Knicks have any shot of keeping it close with the nuggets on a back-to-back one would assume Hezonja plays a part

DeAndre Jordan’s minutes have been down due to blowouts and Mitchell Robinson bounced back with a 40 FP day last game vs Utah. He too would benefit some from no Vonleh in the rotation

Damyean Dotson is still there with minutes and usage so I have no issue with him other than the blowout risk and tight Denver D…so the same risk as for everyone here

Nikola Jokic didn’t do a ton vs Washington yesterday and his 59.25 day vs Boston is the only decent game he’s had out of his last six games. With the blowout risk and that fact, I’d go a little under Jokic’s 22% ownership expected despite a very appealing matchup with a ton of rebound and assist upside

Gary Harris’s attempts have ramped up recently from 10 to 13 to 15 in the last three games. This is technically a pace-up for Denver so I don’t hate going to him again with Jamal Murray and Will Barton at higher prices that haven’t shown much upside recently

-This also could be a strong spot for Paul Millsap, a guy who’s surprisingly shown more upside than Jokic recently relative to their prices. The same blowout risk applies though so with his price up again, it’s hard to get there confidently

Mason Plumlee and Monte Morris look like solid value again and both were useful yesterday as value. Given some cheap risky value at high ownership today, going to these guys who have secure roles and skill sets seems fair to me

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and watch out for my short-form Four Corners video and me on Live Before Lock on the Awesemo YouTube later today!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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