NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Houston, We Have Variance

The NBA playoffs are underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

Shoot, Shoot And Shoot Some More

The Rockets’ series against the Lakers starts today, and on paper, there is a clear advantage going to the Lakers. This is why Los Angeles is a healthy -670 favorite for the series. The Rockets don’t have anybody to guard LeBron James or Anthony Davis, and they know it. Much to the chagrin of the public, Houston is going to launch 3’s at will in this series. When playing against a better team, the best way to win in a seven-game series is to up the variance level. Daryl Morey is aware of this, and I suspect this is why he traded Clint Capela for Robert Covington at the trade deadline. The deal had less to do with the actual value of the players and everything to do with the roles they play. In Covington, the Rockets added a high-variance 3-point shooter to fit the scheme.

My Frustration With Mike Budenholzer

The Bucks are down 2-0 to the Heat. Maybe the Bucks aren’t as good as I thought they were coming into the playoffs, or maybe the good players aren’t getting enough minutes. Eric Bledsoe returned from injury and played 30 minutes last game, and he’s certainly going to provide a boost. The issue is that all of the core players for the Bucks are only playing around 30 minutes. Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo all should play massive minutes in the playoffs. This isn’t what’s happening and it’s really annoying. The easiest way for the Bucks to improve their odds of winning is to play their best players more minutes.

In the first couple games of the series, I projected close to 40 minutes for Middleton and Giannis. Both of them came well short of that mark, making it tough for me to project them going forward. I want to give them each 40 minutes, which would make them really strong DFS plays, but I am starting to doubt this is in the cards. My hope is that we will get a soundbite from Budenholzer saying that he plans on giving his stars extended minutes. As is, Antetokounmpo is a great play, although he is close to a lock if we knew that he would play 40 minutes.

Heat A Little Banged Up For Game 3

Neither Andre Iguodala nor Kelly Olynyk are major parts of the Heat rotation, but both play enough minutes that their absences would create value. As it currently stands, both of them are questionable to play, and it seems they could end up game-time decisions. We also need to lookout for an update since these guys are the only two players questionable to play tonight. Even if it’s minimal value, this could end up as the only source of decent salary savings for the night.

One player who could benefit if both are out is Derrick Jones. Last game, Jones ended up playing seven minutes after he was a DNP in Game 1. If Jones pushes for close to 20 minutes, he could end up a top value play that allows us to roster some of the stars. In the mid-range, Duncan Robinson could get back to playing over 30 minutes if Iguodala sits. In the playoffs, Miami is giving Iguodala extended minutes at the expense of Robinson. For the season, he averages 22.88 DraftKings points as a starter, and he could play over 30 minutes without Iguodala in action.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.