We’re in the penultimate day of regular season NBA DFS, and it’s a big one. We have a rare mix of games that are crucially important for some teams like San Antonio, Phoenix, Portland and Memphis with all still in the hunt for the play-in games. And then we have a bunch of their opponents who don’t care or are deliberately tanking on their way home or to the postseason. It’s a unique scenario, but I’ll take you through the whole slate as it looks right now, and I’ll dig deep for some of the cheap young guys who could shock you at the end of the day.
Reminder: I talked about in more detail in yesterday’s Switch and Hedge, but these are also my last two days at Awesemo.com. Join me and Josh Engleman TOMORROW on the Awesemo YouTube channel for my last Live Before Lock as part of the team for our final regular season NBA DFS slate. And stay tuned after for a special Live After Lock where me and many of your Awesemo favorites will hang out, BS and have a few drinks. I’m terrible at self-promotion and have been very sad all week, so bring me some joy on my last day and come hang out. It’s like you’ve all been personally invited to my farewell party!
And now onto today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
A Finale For Luka
The Mavericks play a meaningless final game of the regular season against Phoenix with a lofty 235-point combined total. The big question of the day is how much Luka Doncic will we see? Kristaps Porzingis is questionable, a situation that pushes Doncic’s usage slightly above his usual 36.7% rate. He played 35 minutes in his last game versus Portland, and I’d think, barring new quotes from Rick Carlisle, that he will see around 30 this game. Damian Lillard is a higher-owned and safer option given Portland’s must-win status to make the play-in games. But I may very well try to find a way to get Doncic in a lineup alongside him in the hopes the minutes will be there.
With Porzingis out, the hope is you’d see a Boban Marjanovic start as a value play. He’s a potential monster at that price point, and he played 25 minutes with a start the last time Porzingis was out, albeit in a matchup against comparably giant Rudy Gobert. If Marjanovic doesn’t get that much run, it will likely go to Maxi Kleber, a man who likely is a better matchup against Deandre Ayton. I’ll have a lot of Marjanovic, but Kleber is a logical pivot. The rest of the Mavs don’t stir up a lot of interest for me besides perhaps a J.J. Barea dart toss in lineups that assume the starters’ minutes are limited.
The Phoenix side is likely much safer due to their need to win. Devin Booker went off last game for 58.75 fantasy points on 11-for-24 shooting in 41 minutes. He’s going to get up shots again at a tough price but one that allows him a ton of upside given the fact that he’s only had under 34% usage once in the bubble. Ayton’s minutes should be solid as well, and it’s possible his last two down games drive down his ownership. Without Porzingis, Dallas really doesn’t have the guys to keep him from what he does best. Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges look perfectly fine with secure minutes as well, though we’ve seen the downside of both as low-usage guys who don’t do much reliably in the way of rebounding.
Portland-Brooklyn’s Slate High Total
Damian Lillard put it down in a major way with 61 real-life points in 41 minutes of court time against Dallas last game. He is a man possessed trying to get his guys into the playoffs and one of the highest floor plays on the slate. His price will be tougher to hit today, but I would still continue to ride with Lillard. He’s had over 42% usage in his last two games. CJ McCollum lurks as the pivot, but I have a hard time getting there more than the field’s projected 18% ownership. We saw news that he has a broken bone in his back after last game despite his playing 39 minutes or more in every bubble game thus far. You can certainly get there, but Lillard is the safer play even accounting for the price point.
Gary Trent Jr. looks OK to me, though the Nets have historically closed out on 3-point shooters pretty well as they allow a low 35% clip from deep this year. He’s high-priced because of the few games where he really exceeded value, but it’s narrow margins for a guy with 12% usage. Jusuf Nurkic has started to swoon as Lillard’s usage has soared with two straight duds. Nurkic has under 10 shots in his last three games, and he’s one guy to consider if not playing Lillard.
I assume Brooklyn won’t play their guys anything close to their full minutes, so I have a hard time getting any of Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen. The bench guys also are now priced up thanks to the hot run they had sans the starters, and I can’t trust their minutes being there either. This is the Nets’ final game before the playoffs, so there’s an outside chance they will see a dress rehearsal game with an approximation of their usual minutes. But with the field heavily on LeVert with 26% projected ownership, I can’t imagine getting more than a handful of shares. The only guy I’d really consider is Jeremiah Martin if we know that the questionable Chris Chiozza will be out. Martin was a beast at no ownership after I mentioned him last game. Martin ended up with 31% usage and 37.5 fantasy points in 27 minutes.
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New Orleans And Orlando Don’t Care
Orlando is locked into the eighth seed, and they didn’t play their starters for a fourth quarter shift last game. That caps the upside of Nikola Vucevic meaningfully despite the pace of the matchup and his boost in shots with no Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross or Aaron Gordon again. I don’t think I’ll get there at all today. I can still get to Markelle Fultz off the bench with his unencumbered usage off the bench. He had a 43% usage rate last game in 22 minutes, as he put up 18 shots for the second straight game. This matchup will give him a chance to hit a ceiling even if he doesn’t get a second more than he did last time out.
Wesley Iwundu seized some of the vacated opportunity on the wing last game as he had a 25% usage rate in 30 minutes of play. I don’t fully trust him, but I’ll have at least the field’s 10% projected ownership. I’d also take a stab at B.J. Johnson at minimum salary after he had a 26% usage rate in 19 minutes last game. He was really looking to do something after finally getting on the court last time out and showed some rebounding ability as well, something that can add up if he gets more run versus New Orleans.
The Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram for their finale before they get immediately kicked out of the bubble like a person who didn’t get a rose on The Bachelor. J.J. Redick and Derrick Favors are not on the injury report but saw no run last game, so I’d immediately take them out of your player pool. Although I don’t hate Lonzo Ball after he played just shy of 30 minutes last time even with the other starters out, this is more of a game I will try to take some value from.
Frank Jackson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker both saw around 25 minutes last game, and there will be more to go around if the questionable Josh Hart misses today. I like them both as value. I also have no issues with Jaxson Hayes and Jahlil Okafor at cheap prices and solid projections for both. Okafor may be the sneakier play with Hayes projected for 20% ownership. Nicolo Melli is also in the mix after he played 25 minutes last game. E’Twaun Moore also saw just shy of 25 minutes last game and put up 11 shots. It’s entirely possible none of these guys spike a tournament-winning ceiling but they can open up ways to load up on the studs we know need to see high minutes today.
San Antonio Cares, Utah Does Not
The Jazz sat their starters in the second half of their last game, so Donovan Mitchell is likely unplayable even though Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be out. Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson would need to be extremely productive in a much shorter shift to have a chance to be useful today. Emmanuel Mudiay and Tony Bradley are the guys I’d be willing to trust the most here. They’ve shown the ability to contribute at 0.92 fantasy points per minute and 1.1 fantasy points per minute, respectively. Jarell Brantley has looked decent in the bubble when he gets run, and Justin Wright-Foreman has been a usage hog in his stints. I wouldn’t have much of either, but on this kind of slate, I could see some interest.
San Antonio is still in the play-in game mix, so their core guys should be considered today. DeMar DeRozan continues to be a player I haven’t had much of in the bubble, but his minutes have been there. It’s possible Utah will get blown out, but DeRozan could be good if they hang in this one. The same applies for Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, though I’d have a slight preference towards Murray. Jakob Poeltl might be an interesting pivot to some of the value center plays with over 35.5 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He’s had double-digit boards in all three of them, and that’s been what was missed from his early bubble games. Keldon Johnson went off last game versus Houston with 44.25 fantasy points in 26 minutes. I wouldn’t want to chase that too much here with a rising salary and Johnson due for some regression on his shooting and his 11 rebounds in that spot much higher than his usual.
No Giannis For Milwaukee
Giannis Antetokounmpo will be out today versus Memphis due to a suspension for his Mo Wagner headbutt. While normally that would mean Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe would get a big boost, they seem unlikely to get their full run today in a meaningless game. D.J. Wilson might be the only guy I get any of from Milwaukee. Their prices aren’t as value forward as some of the other teams, and Middleton and Bledsoe will still take enough opportunity off the table to limit the young guys’ ceilings. Sterling Brown may be the one exception, but he’d look better with a slightly cheaper price.
Memphis needs this win with Phoenix and Portland right there to knock them out of the play-in situation. Ja Morant should see big run but his price is really high. I’d rather have Booker, Lillard and even Doncic by a pretty wide margin. Dillon Brooks is more of an option for me, though his shot came back down to Earth last game. Milwaukee is going to make it hard on him, but Brooks is a relentless gunner despite how many shots he can miss at times. It may be a time to look at Grayson Allen as well after he’s had 14 shot attempts in his last two games. He’s been over 29 minutes in those games too, and it’s possible he will see some additional looks from deep with attention likely to go elsewhere.
I’d say the same for Brandon Clarke, a player who’s exactly the type of guy that Milwaukee loves to let shoot unencumbered 3-pointers. He’s a 37% shooter from deep on the year. Clarke can benefit similarly to guys like Dorian Finney-Smith recently, whom Milwaukee loves to let shoot with impunity as part of their defensive strategy.
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