It’s Hump Day, and thankfully for all of us, we have NBA DFS back in our lives to break up that crippling reality. There are numerous injuries to dig into that should have massive impacts on ownership across the NBA DFS industry and also some lessons from yesterday’s slate to consider today. Will the Lakers pull a Bucks on us and pull starters in a meaningless game for them? Will Brandon Clarke live up to his lofty ownership projections as a likely new starter with Jaren Jackson Jr. out for the year? These are some of the questions I’ll tackle along with the rest of the slate in today’s Switch and Hedge!
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Jaren Jackson’s Absence Creates Value For Memphis
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been ruled out for the rest of the bubble with a knee injury, a downer for a promising young prospect who’s looked good in Orlando thus far. His absence should turn Brandon Clarke into a top value today, and he’ll be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate. Clarke comes with some risk since he’ll lose some usage in the situation in a pace-down spot. Overall, I like Clarke, but it’s worth noting that Anthony Tolliver has seen meaningful minutes at the backup power forward spot. The Grizzlies have made sure to have one of Clarke and Jonas Valanciunas on the floor but haven’t shown a predisposition to needing both the same way they like to play Jonas and Jackson or Clarke and Jackson. Jonas also strikes me as a direct pivot for production from Clarke.
Ja Morant looks a little too expensive to me today on DraftKings, but targeting him at low ownership after a chalk disappointment seems fair for tournaments. His price looks better on FanDuel. Dillon Brooks has not turned his shooting around in the bubble with him dropping to 40% from the floor. He still sees enough run to be useful. And I wouldn’t totally sleep on Grayson Allen and De’Anthony Melton in the second unit as GPP fliers. These guys will have more usage if they end up playing in groups without as much Clarke.
Donovan Mitchell looks perfectly fine as always, and he should benefit from this pace-up spot. Rudy Gobert strikes me as a good matchup against Valanciunas and has had some solid days on the year versus Memphis. Gobert averaged 45 fantasy points versus Memphis in three games this year. His price looks solid and can be a pivot to some of the less-reliable value, chalk center plays. Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson round out my interest for Utah. Neither is a priority, and Conley looks a little over-owned for a guy who hasn’t spiked a big upside alongside Mitchell in a while, but both can pay off their price tags in this spot.
Brooklyn’s Squad Gets Slightly More Talent Back
After one of the biggest upsets in betting history yesterday for Brooklyn’s mostly bench warmers versus Milwaukee, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Joe Harris are back today versus Boston. Allen looks like a chalk play of the day and his price will be hard to ignore. There’s tournament value in moving away from him, but he looks more good than not. LeVert will find himself lower-owned than he has been thus far in the bubble, but his price does allow some upside for him. He hasn’t assisted at as high of a rate in the bubble, perhaps due to less talent around him. Harris rates the lowest of the returning trio for me with him likely to see some tough coverage. He’s a tournament play as a low-owned late-night hammer, but the field’s 5%ownership seems more than fair.
Boston’s side looks well-priced for the first time, and Kemba Walker’s absence on a back-to-back should make all of these guys gain in appeal. Jayson Tatum has a 33% usage rate on the year without Walker, and he’s certainly capable of pouring it on versus this depleted Brooklyn squad. He’ll be owned, but I still want to at least be with the field. Jaylen Brown sees a slightly less big jump in usage than Tatum, but he’s very playable as well at less ownership. Gordon Hayward will have even less ownership but gains in both usage and assist rate sans Walker. Marcus Smart looks a bit too expensive for me despite his rise in ball-handling time without Walker. The other three seem like more viable priorities. We also all know the inherent risks of playing Brad Wanamaker when Walker is out, but he seems like he could be worth a sprinkle of exposure at minimum price. He’s for sure not deserving of chalk ownership, but he could see decent usage and ball-handling time off the bench if Smart moves back to the starting lineup for Walker.
Philadelphia May Put a Beating onto Washington
After that aforementioned Nets-Bucks game, we have been reminded of why it’s not wise to project blowouts. But Philadelphia does appear to be a team who can put it down on Washington as a 10 point favorite. Joel Embiid looks strong despite his elevated price point. He’ll have under 10% ownership despite a center matchup that has made far lesser men look like world beaters. Ben Simmons hasn’t shown massive upside in his new power forward role, as Tobias Harris has benefited more from the change. Harris has over 29% usage in his two bubble games, while Simmons was down to just 14% last game. I think he will come out aggressively today and can be a very interesting tournament play at under 10% ownership. Playing both Embiid and Simmons together could be an interesting move if Washington avoids getting run off the court.
Troy Brown has been on the cusp of a triple-double for two straight games, and he was inhibited by foul trouble last game. The defense of Philadelphia worries me a little since there are so few options to worry about. But Brown is priced to have upside if he continues his all around game that’s included a team-leading assist rate in the bubble. Ish Smith seems like the pivot to consider to Brown if he starts again but Shabazz Napier also looms as a guy who can suck up usage and production. I’m less into a shockingly highly owned Rui Hachimura and a priced-up Thomas Bryant. Bryant has put up 43.75 and 59.75 fantasy points in his last two games, but the foul trouble risk and matchup worry me enough to jump off in case people chase that rising salary.
Jamal Murray Continues to Be Questionable
As of writing this, Jamal Murray remains questionable for Denver’s game versus San Antonio while Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. If Murray is in, he’s likely a non-factor who’ll be on limited minutes and make everyone, perhaps besides Nikola Jokic, a bit less appealing. If he’s out, Monte Morris is on the cusp of playable, but I’d mostly be curious about Michael Porter Jr. He showed gigantic upside the other day, as he put up a double-double in 44 minutes. He seems worth at least matching the field on if Murray misses and you can take the risk of him losing minutes to Jerami Grant.
I’m going to be back with Jakob Poeltl again with his price hard to avoid. He and Jarrett Allen should once again be popular value center plays paired together, worth noting as you attempt to build contrarian tournament lineups. Poeltl has been hit by foul trouble in two straight games, and his size will be needed versus Denver. Drew Eubanks will see a rise in minutes if Poeltl loses time again, but Poeltl still seems worth the shot in a matchup that could be better for him than the one with Philadelphia was. I also like Dejounte Murray again after was a disappointment last time out. DeMar DeRozan carried the team with Murray shooting 4-for-14, but Murray (and Derrick White) both got to just shy of 30 minutes. DeRozan spiked his usage in that game and really came out looking for his shot. I worry that recedes again, but I could see trying tournament stabs at DeRozan in the hopes he aggressively looks for his shot once more and hurts Murray’s value in that process.
The Rest of the NBA DFS Slate
-After what we just saw with Milwaukee benching starters in the first half, it’s logical to keep the Lakers’ current position top of mind. They’re on the front half of a back-to-back, and they have clinched the No. 1 seed. It’s possible we will see slightly less run out of LeBron James and Anthony Davis as a result, and that feels risky. It also may be a time to consider value Dion Waiters with a solid 22% usage rate in the bubble who would love to endlessly chuck up shots if the stars see less time. I’d also keep an eye on Dwight Howard’s questionable status with more minutes to come for JaVale McGee if Howard is out, assuming the Lakers play it straight.
-There’s logic to going back to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after he was a gigantic chalk disappointment the other day. He still seems likely to be highly owned, so that’s an ownership number to watch closer to lock. This matchup isn’t appreciably better than the one he had versus Denver where he bombed out, but the opportunity should be there for him with Dennis Schroder unavailable.
-I don’t see a ton to love in the Toronto-Orlando game, a matchup between two mostly solid defensive groups. Toronto’s guys are priced up, and Fred VanVleet looks about as close to playable as it gets on their side. Nikola Vucevic looks fine on Orlando’s side, but his high ownership in this matchup would worry me a little. Ditto for Evan Fournier and a chalky value play in James Ennis. I’d like these guys more in tournaments if they weren’t projected for fairly high ownership. In particular, Ennis’ ceiling is not the highest even though he’ll certainly benefit in minutes from Jonathan Isaac’s injury. Ennis saw 27 minutes yesterday in his first game sans Isaac, a good sign, but he’s still just at 0.75 fantasy point per minute. I wouldn’t lock him in as value in tournaments even if he’s probably a very solid cash play with the price and ownership expected his way.
