It’s an early start time for the day’s NBA DFS slates today and an interesting selection of matchups. We have some playoff-caliber games like Boston-Miami and Houston-Portland … and then we have a complete disaster of a Brooklyn roster as an 18-point underdog versus Milwaukee. It’s a slate that’s ready and primed to get weird. And as you hopefully know, getting weird is a place I thrive. So let’s get into it in today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
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Houston and Portland in the Day’s Marquee Game
Russell Westbrook and James Harden both look like very strong plays on paper for Houston in a game against the defensively weak Trailblazers. The game between Houston and Portland has a slate-high 244.5 combined total. Westbrook will be higher-owned and deservedly so; Harden has been under 37 fantasy points in his last two games against the Blazers thanks to the trapping defense they throw at him. Harden had just 18 shot attempts in 38 minutes his last game against Portland and shot 3-for-12 the time before that. Westbrook averages 68 fantasy points against Portland in three games this year. Harden is a relatively contrarian option who comes with some risk given how well Portland has contained him. Conversely, Westbrook looks like a must for cash games with definite GPP upside. I also wouldn’t sleep on more value for the Danuel House and P.J. Tucker tier of players, with Robert Covington not far behind, in case Harden sees the same usage downturn that comes with his playing Portland.
Damian Lillard is a strong play on the other side without much ownership projected. I’d prefer him to C.J. McCollum relative to price, though both are worth exposure at low ownership. Jusuf Nurkic is a question mark for me, one I find to be a complete boom-or-bust situation. He could feast against Houston’s lack of a center with him over 50 fantasy points in his first two bubble games. But it’s also possible he lacks some of the lateral quickness needed to contain Harden and Westbrook, and we will see more Zach Collins at the five. I’m likely to get above the field on Nurkic on a price point that people are unlikely to land on, but there’s some risk he can submarine the day if his recovered leg injury and general girth leave him as a bad matchup against the small-ball Rockets.
The Suddenly Crucial Indiana Pacers
On yesterday’s NBA DFS slate, having some Indiana Pacers in your lineup was a must. T.J. Warren went off for his second straight game with 31% usage that was good for 34 real-life points along with 11 rebounds. He’s now priced up yet again and could be worth “pay up to be contrarian” tournament appeal with some risk that his usage comes down. Malcolm Brogdon was the other key contributor as he turned his questionable status with a neck injury into 35 minutes, 30% usage and 41 fantasy points. Brogdon is hard to ignore as a value today on DraftKings in particular, while he still looks good on FanDuel. I have no issue with Brogdon again, though perhaps Victor Oladipo playing today will create a more logical pivot point. The ownership is very high for a player in Brogdon who poses some theoretical risk on a back-to-back.
I’m less inclined to go to Myles Turner on a back-to-back. He was a play I had a lot of yesterday, and while he looked perfectly fine against the Wizards, I’m not sure he has a ton more upside going against a tougher team in Orlando. His low expected ownership (and recent disappointments or semi-disappointments) is seemingly the lone reason to want some exposure for him today.
Orlando will be without Jonathan Isaac moving forward after he reportedly tore his ACL. He had come off the bench in the restart, so his absence doesn’t likely change the minutes situation too much. James Ennis will see more run as a low-upside value play and Aaron Gordon should see a little more opportunity but not enough to meaningfully affect things. Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier look like the guys I’d want here. Markelle Fultz has been capped at 20 minutes per game thus far off the bench, while D.J. Augustin hasn’t seen much of a boost in opportunity.
The Nets Have NOBODY For Their Game Versus the Bucks
Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris will be out for today’s game, and there is legitimately not much left for the Nets. And anyone that is left, including a likely high-usage Tyler Johnson, is now entirely overpriced for how mediocre they are (other than Garrett Temple’s price on FanDuel, which is very value-forward). Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has looked good in the bubble, but it’s hard to pay his elevated price too. Rodions Kurucs could get there relative to his priced, but it feels iffy. Jamal Crawford is unlikely to see enough run after he missed the first two bubble games for conditioning. I don’t see a lot to love, and even guys I like, such as the very active Donta Hall, are hard to trust at any volume. Maybe Dzanan Musa or Justin Anderson will see some additional run at a minimum salary? It won’t shock me if one of these guys makes a winning lineup, but it’s legitimate guess work to figure out which gets there.
The Bucks are likely to roll Brooklyn given the 18-point spread that favors them. Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton will be back for the Bucks but are expected to play very low minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo can certainly go off here, but will he get you there if he plays only 30 minutes? Maybe, but it doesn’t feel worth much more than the field’s 15% ownership. The same goes for Khris Middleton, though there may be some appeal with him given his sub-5% ownership.
Sacramento-Dallas Could Be Sneakily Intriguing
Sacramento has been slept on in the bubble as something of a far-fetched playoff team. Their 0-2 record thus far has them already on the outs, so it could be desperation mode for them with a very well-priced team today. De’Aaron Fox remains the first guy to look at coming off of a disappointing effort versus Orlando. He’s shown 56.75 fantasy points upside against Dallas earlier in the year, and he likely has the highest floor and ceiling in this spot.
Bogdan Bogdanovic regularly looks good to me, and he’s priced to still have some upside. It’s a bit harder to pinpoint Harrison Barnes or Nemanja Bjelica, but they can have some potential in tournaments with mostly secure minutes loads and reasonable prices. The same goes for Richaun Holmes, who could see more action than he has thus far to keep Kristaps Porzingis at bay. I’d be less inclined for Buddy Hield with him yet to top 20 minutes in the bubble.
Luka Doncic looks good as always but seems appropriately owned. I wouldn’t sleep on Porzingis with under 5% projected ownership. His price is up, but he’s put up 70 and 52.5 fantasy points games thus far in Orlando. He also hung 58.75 fantasy points on Sacramento the last time he played them in February. I could see tournament dart throws at Delon Wright or Trey Burke, but this really seems like Doncic, Porzingis or bust for Dallas.
Around the Rest of the NBA DFS Slate
The Suns are 2-0 in the bubble thus far, but that run could quickly end as a nine-point underdog to the Clippers. Deandre Ayton looks like the top play for Phoenix with Devin Booker likely to see some tough times from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Ricky Rubio could be a sneaky play if you believe Phoenix can keep this competitive. That would also make the aforementioned George and Leonard more viable after both underachieved a little in their last game thanks to a complete destruction of New Orleans. I also wouldn’t mind some of Ivica Zubac given the chance for him to seize more run thanks to Ayton on the other side. Joakim Noah played just seven minutes to Zubac’s 24 in that last game versus New Orleans.
Boston and Miami is a game where I don’t see a lot to love. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can spike an upside for tournaments, but their prices are pretty much where they should be. You could talk me more into Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the other side. Jae Crowder also seems like a decent low-owned flyer who was up to 34 minutes yesterday, and Goran Dragic went off in a similar situation yesterday. Miami is on a back-to-back, though, so there could be a bit of inherent risk to the situation. The game will be contrarian to play, but it’s not the easiest one to land on.
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