There are six games on today’s NBA DFS slate and just about all of them offer some interesting items and players to consider. Can Damian Lillard bounce back from an aimless effort in Chicago with a highly appealing spot vs Atlanta? Can Kemba Walker keep up his hot run which unexpectedly has the Hornets closing in on a possible playoff berth? Maybe! I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
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SWITCH: Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
-The Hornets get a 4.3 point boost on their season average while the Lakers get a 1.6 point boost on theirs in a game with a 228.5 combined total
–LeBron James’ price remains down thanks to his minutes restriction but he’s still been around 34-37 minutes after that initial announcement and with a not intimidating defense across from him, he’s pretty interesting here
–Kyle Kuzma has been a usage heavy scoring dependent player recently who offers nothing in any category. He projects decently for me today but I wouldn’t want a ton of him given how frequently he’s disappointed
–Javale McGee’s price continues to rise but the minutes and opportunity are there for him and this spot should offer little in the way of resistance inside. I like McGee a good amount today and the fact that he was able to put up 38.75 FP vs Utah gives you some confidence in his floor in a worst case scenario
–Kentavious Caldwell-Pope looks okay again. Even though his ability to disappear from games, both in terms of role and actual minutes, is annoying I’m okay riding with him at a reasonable price with upside if the shots are there for him. Conversely, I’m very anti-Rajon Rondo in games with LeBron with him losing all his assist and scoring upside recently in this situations
–Kemba Walker would be the first Hornet I consider with three straight over 54.5 FP, two of which were over 69.25 FP. He’s singlehandedly played the Hornets into better (but still not great) statistical odds to make the playoffs with four wins in a row and I don’t think it’s the time to jump off the train at 23% expected ownership in a pace-up
–Miles Bridges has been super steady since getting moved into a core role. His usage isn’t great with his 8% last game looking more like his much less involved brother Mikal but he’s shown 40 FP upside during this run and he should get some easy extra rebounds and shots in this matchup
–Dwayne Bacon went nuts with 43 FP last game vs San Antonio and he’s shot at least 14 times in his last two games. I don’t mind going back to him here with some really solid results and opportunity since Charlotte went into a ”player development” mode which may have actually made the team better though Bacon does seem to have a bit of risk to lose minutes back to Jeremy Lamb after he was injured last game
-It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Willy Hernangomez summoned into duty as a counter to Javale McGee if he wreaks the havoc he’s capable of. He and Marvin Williams are vaguely interesting value but I would favor Willy with both around 10% expected ownership
HEDGE: Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trailblazers
-The Hawks get a 2.8 point boost on their season average while the Blazers get a 4.2 point boost on theirs in a game with a 234.5 combined total
-Foul trouble and ineffectiveness limited John Collins last game vs NO but with his price down, I don’t mind going back to him here. It can be a good spot for him with the Blazers less stout inside thanks to Jusuf Nurkic’s injury
–Kevin Huerter looks like a decent value with Taurean Prince expected out today. His usage is still not something you can bank on game to game but I don’t mind matching the field on him
–Trae Young is still the first Hawk to look at and while this isn’t as fantastic of a spot as the last one vs New Orleans, Trae has been over 57.75 FP in his last two games with a 33% usage rate and he’s also had double digit assists in his last four
–Dewayne Dedmon and Kent Bazemore also look okay as guys who can hit value relative to their prices but likely don’t offer a ton of ceiling. I also wouldn’t rule out Alex Len again with him seemingly locked into 18-20 minutes a game with a chance to earn more if he’s effective and Dedmon/Collins are not
–Damian Lillard is a tough guy to suss out; he’s been more good than bad since CJ McCollum went out but when his shot didn’t fall last game vs Chicago he pulled back and mostly let the other guys see if they could get going. He needs the peripheral pieces to get better to have any shot at surviving in the playoffs but he has yet to fully embrace the open usage without McCollum and Nurkic in the same way he did previously in court time without them. This matchup is the perfect spot to spike the ceiling day he’s capable of in this situation so I’ll go above the field on him and his 17% expected ownership but I get why others wouldn’t want to
-It’s another decent spot for Enes Kanter who was solid on a per-minute basis but didn’t get there due to a blowout (and it’s questionable whether he’d even be in a closing group due to his poor defense). Some exposure to Kanter works because he should have some upside due to the pace here and people may be less inclined for him due to his disappointment the other day
–Mo Harkless came out gunning for Portland last game but ended up just 1-for-8 in 20 minutes due to the blowout. This spot vs Atlanta offers some upside to him in a bunch of statistical categories so I don’t mind going back to him at a reasonable price
–Seth Curry still didn’t start last game but continued his efficient shooting with his usage rate up to 25.5%. His tournament upside still feels questionable as his price continues to rise but it’s hard to argue against him with how he’s been and the matchup
–Al-Farouq Aminu took some of the rebounding off the table from Kanter with 11 boards to Kanter’s 6 vs Chicago and he’s certainly capable of doing that again. I don’t mind him today but he remains a sort of low-upside play
–Zach Collins looks fine but with his price on the upswing I’m not dying to have a ton of him
HEDGE: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
-The Wolves get a 2.7 point drop on their season average while the Warriors get a 1.5 point boost on theirs in a game with a 228.5 combined total
–Karl-Anthony Towns was a bit of a bust last time vs the Clippers with some foul issues and 6-for-17 shooting but his minutes and role have still been there. He had 59.25 vs Golden State ten days ago and it remains an appealing spot for him with some risk the Warriors run away with it
–Andrew Wiggins had 40.5 FP in 41 minutes the last time he played Golden State and he’s not a guy I’m dying to get into lineups ever but he doesn’t look the worst if the Wolves make this a competitive game
–Josh Okogie’s price cuts into his ceiling a bit but he’s had at least 26.5 in four out of his last five so he’s another okay close-to-value guy. I think I would take him over Tyus Jones at this point and probably over Dario Saric too with Okogie offering more across the board statistically but with less likelihood to offer a big scoring day
-The Warriors’ side all looks fairly reasonably priced for this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins appeals to me the most with his price reasonable given his upside; he missed the last game vs Minnesota and it seems like a good situation for him
–Draymond Green excelled without Cousins vs Minnesota ten days ago and he looks okay again but it’s hard to imagine much more than the 39 FP he scored last time with Cousins taking even more away from him
–Steph Curry and Klay Thompson project just about identically with Kevin Durant not far behind. Durant was highly efficient vs Memphis but put up just 13 shots while Steph’s usage seems predictably higher so I’d favor Steph there. Klay’s price is down after a few bad games but he can heat up big time with the Wolves allowing a slate high 37.8% from deep. I’d go Curry>Klay>Durant but a few combinations of these guys seems reasonable with it hard to argue about the potential of any of them
HEDGE: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
-The Thunder get a 3 point decrease on their season average while Denver gets a 2.8 drop on theirs in a game with a 219.5 combined total
–Russell Westbrook averages 52 FP in the three games he’s played vs Denver this year and while I don’t mind him, I do think the Nuggets have done a good job limiting the damage of ball dominant guards all year so I’m okay just matching the field’s 25% expected ownership
–Paul George appeals to me a little bit more at far less projected ownership if he’s ruled in with him currently questionable with his ongoing shoulder issues. If he’s out, Russ likely becomes more necessary to get some exposure to but also likely much more popular
–Steven Adams went for 52 FP on 8-for-11 shooting last game after literal weeks of not spiking anything resembling an upside. It frustrates me a little because he projected well for me last game but with so much underperformance, it’s hard to trust a guy even when the numbers seem there. I would match the field’s 16% ownership expected for him and be inclined for a little more than that if George were out. Adams has shown 53.5 FP upside vs Denver as well as a 26.75 FP floor
–Jerami Grant has randomly spiked big days recently; I’d feel a lot better about him with George out but he can certainly make it happen even with George in
-A lot of these guys saw more looks because Dennis Schroder was entirely shut down by Indiana, three points and three assists in 21 minutes of 0-for-7 action. A Schroder bounceback that takes usage back from Adams/Grant could be an interesting leverage play
–Nikola Jokic looks fine on the Nuggets’ side and it helps that his last two vs OKC were over 61.75 FP. With his price down a little, I’ll likely go a bit over the field’s 12% ownership expected for Jokic even though he hasn’t shown that ceiling vs anyone since, coincidentally, his 66.75 FP day vs OKC on 2/26
–Jamal Murray’s usage seems to have stabilized some with Gary Harris and Will Barton receding into the background a bit; Barton’s price is appealing but I find it hard to trust any of these guys. Murray remains the most trustworthy with upside due to his price dropping
–Paul Millsap suffers from similar issues to the guards but he looks decent on a projection level. There are likely better Nuggets to target but some exposure is reasonable
HEDGE: Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards
-The Jazz get an 8.6 point boost on their season average while the Wizards get a 7.8 point drop on theirs in a game with a 226 combined total
-This can be a destructive spot for Rudy Gobert vs Washington as long as the Wizards don’t get blown out. With his price down a bit to an even more reasonable rate, Gobert’s 17% projected ownership seems really reasonable and perhaps a bit low
-It’s something of a dice roll with the wings/guards in Utah with Joe Ingles picking up 14 assists last game while Ricky Rubio was less involved and Donovan Mitchell was utterly worthless with just 11 points on 11 shots, his second straight game under 23 FP. Rubio projects the best for me of this trio, Ingles looks fine but feels like a point chase, and Mitchell looks way overpriced for what he’s done recently but he also seems due for some sort of bounceback. Match the field and trust nobody
–Derrick Favors should continue to thrive in his role with the very hospitable spot inside vs Washington. I’d favor him over Jae Crowder but both guys are in consideration with the matchup and pricing
-This Jazz defense can be oppressive so it’s hard to love anyone for Washington. Jabari Parker interests me the most on the Wizards’ side with Trevor Ariza likely still out. He’s offered much more good than bad as a Wizard and at just 5% expected ownership he has a noteworthy ceiling
-It’s hard to trust Bradley Beal with his price back up a bit for this tougher matchup. Beal hasn’t shown enough usage or minutes to justify his $9,300 DraftKings price tag since the Wizards fell out of the playoff so while he’s the Wizard most likely to shoot them into this game, he hasn’t shown that enough recently to bank on
-I could see taking a shot at Bobby Portis at a reasonable price; he’s had 25 minutes or less in the last two games while Thomas Bryant got 28 and 40 so it may be more logical to hope Bryant is more effective vs Gobert than one would think. But Portis is interesting at significantly cheaper and a more logical counter to what Gobert does with Bryant just doing a worse version of what Rudy brings to the table
HEDGE: Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers
-The Celtics get a 3.1 point drop on their season average while the Pacers get a 4.3 point drop on theirs in a game with a 213 combined total
–Kyrie Irving is the most interesting Celtic to me whenever he’s in a lineup and with his price down he’s an interesting play here. I’d at least match the field’s 18% expected ownership with him having been over 53.25 FP in five of his last six
–Jayson Tatum’s usage has been up a bit with 17 shots in his last two games but I still don’t see getting to him a ton. The 17% expected for him is fine but with this kind of game, I’d rather have Kyrie
–Al Horford has had at least 37.5 FP in his last three games with him rounding into playoff form despite his apparent knee issues. I’d take him over Tatum with him likely to have some more upside despite costing a little more
–Bojan Bogdanovic has reasserted himself with usage recently, 16 and 20 shots in his last two after a run of shooting 13 or less times per game. For a scoring dependent guy like him that matters so I’d be willing to take some shots at him despite the tough matchup
–Myles Turner is an interesting center play at his current price and just 12% ownership expected is appealing. He has some upside, especially if the wing players get entirely clamped down upon
–Domantas Sabonis could also be useful in the second unit with the Celtics a worse rebounding team than they may appear. He saw 37 minutes last game vs OKC, a lot of which alongside Turner, and that opportunity can be big for him since all he really needs is court time to be useful
-It seemed like Darren Collison may have been minutes limited in his return to the lineup last game as he played just 24 minutes despite Cory Joseph not offering much. Collison could see that tick up and he’s probably a bit interesting as a result, though the assist upside should be down a bit with how the Celtics throttle shooters. I’d be more into Collison in game stack situations
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