NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Stop, Think And Overreact

The NBA playoffs are underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

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It’s Time for Montrezl Harrell to Play Regular Minutes

I think the training wheels will come off of Harrell as we enter the second round of the playoffs. At least I hope this is the case because I plan on rostering him a bunch tonight. After entering the bubble late due to the death of his grandmother, Harrell clearly wasn’t in top playing shape during the first round. Conditioning was an issue, and because of this, he averaged just 18 minutes per game in the series. Eventually, I expect Harrell to play his regular minutes, and I think this will start tonight. After a few extra days off to work on his conditioning, we should see Harrell show up a bit trimmer and play over 20 minutes today. He should play a bit more going forward as Ivica Zubac loses out on some minutes.

Defending Champs in a 2-0 Hole

The end to Game 2 between the Raptors and Celtics was extremely bizarre. Toronto appeared to have the game in hand and totally collapsed down the stretch. This was a bit of a role reversal. The Celtics looked like the defending champs and the Raptors looked like the inexperienced young team. Even so, I am not counting the Raptors out. They fell into a 2-0 hole against the Bucks last year before coming back to make it out of the Eastern Conference.

The question here is if Nick Nurse adjusts his starting lineup or rotations at all. My gut feeling is that he will. Marc Gasol looks very washed in the postseason, and I think it’s time to move him to the bench. Starting Serge Ibaka is the most logical move to give the Celtics a different look. Ibaka is shooting the ball extremely well in the postseason and can add some floor spacing to the Toronto offense. As is, the paint appears a bit crowded. Another option is to start Norman Powell and play small ball. I am hoping for a lineup swap because this is one of the more likely ways we can find value on this slate.

Working on Timelord Time

Robert Williams is giving the Celtics valuable minutes off the bench. I don’t think we need to consider him on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he looks like a decent play with us starved for value on the slate. Williams is playing 18 minutes per game for the series and averaging 21.13 DraftKings points. For the season, he scored well over a fantasy point per minute, so it stands to reason he will continue to produce relatively well considering his price tag if his minutes stay the same. There is also a bit of added upside since Daniel Theis could get into foul trouble. It wouldn’t be the first or the last time Theis gets into foul trouble, and Williams could smash if he steps into 20 or more minutes. He is firmly ahead of Enes Kanter in the rotation.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.