In what will likely be the case almost everyday for the rest of the season, we’ve already had some key news break about the absences of prominent players in tonight’s NBA DFS slate. It’s that time of year where guys will be ruled out, other guys will be ruled out in response to those guys getting ruled out, and games that seemed like a stone lock now look materially different. Thankfully we’ve got each other in these trying times. I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
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SWITCH: Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
-The Bucks get a 5.1 point boost on their season average while the Lakers are flat with theirs in a game with a 234.5 point total
–LeBron James has been ruled out of this one and the blowout risk certain increases after the Lakers got busted by a far inferior Pistons squad in their last Lebronless effort. But the Lakers’ production should be concentrated for as long as they survive this one and that gives me some interest in Rajon Rondo. Rondo put up 38.5 FP in that game vs. Detroit and the Bucks’ defensive approach of letting a poor shooter tee up threes should result in some Rondo looks, a not terrible situation given that Rondo’s 37.5% from deep is higher than everyone active besides Alex Caruso
–Kyle Kuzma put up 14 shots as he clocked 37 FP in the Detroit game, one where it seemed like the Flint, Mich. native wanted to push the action. He’s had 10 and 8 assists in his last two games and any peripheral upside for the scoring-heavy Kuzma could be valuable at a very reasonable price
–Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should see some more looks as a result of LeBron’s absence, though his ceiling feels questionable without a ton of usage and much to offer outside of scoring. The second unit in their last game without LeBron felt a little like Lord of the Flies with everyone dialing their own number so it may be more logical to go to primary ball-handler Alex Caruso at even cheaper with three straight games over 29.75 FP
–Javale McGee saw big minutes in the last LeBronless effort but it’s safe to wonder how he matches up with this spread out Bucks offense. He deserves more than his 4% ownership currently expected but I couldn’t be shocked if they went with a more switchable big like a Johnathan Williams or one who can shoot like presumptive starter Mike Muscala (who got just 15 minutes vs. Detroit when LeBron was out despite the start) or Mo Wagner
–Nikola Mirotic’s value presents the most interesting option to me. He saw just 24 minutes in his first start for the injured Malcolm Brogdon with a lot of time going to George Hill down the stretch so there is some risk. But Mirotic can certainly fill it up, especially now that Giannis Antetokuonmpo has also been ruled out, and some approximation of his 35% expected ownership seems reasonable
-The other Bucks are harder to trust, with this game boasting some serious blowout potential. If the Lakers kept it close, Eric Bledsoe would be a strong play given the non-existent PG defense they’ve presented recently and Khris Middleton has historically benefitted quite a bit when Giannis is out; both guys see gigantic per-minute boosts in court time without Giannis and Brogdon. There’s now a real risk-reward to loading up on these guys and Brook Lopez with both of the stud plays out
HEDGE: Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
-Houston gets a 6.3 point boost on their season average while Atlanta is flat with theirs in a game with a 231.5 combined total
–James Harden did not thrive last time he played the Hawks, putting up just 39.25 FP on 7-for-21 shooting. But knowing his upside (and without terribly appealing high priced options elsewhere), I would want to come close to the field’s 24% expected ownership just in case he spikes an outlier day
–Chris Paul also looks solid with the pace in this matchup and at slightly less ownership for him, he also looks like a play to match the field on as well. The matchup allows a lot of assist upside
-I’m not sure I see the ceiling for Clint Capela with his price up but the pace here allows the opportunity for him to get there. He’s been over 41.25 FP in two out of his last four so he may deserve more than the 3% ownership currently expected but not one to load up on
–Eric Gordon also could heat up if the scoring doesn’t come from the more dependable pieces. I’ll likely have a lineup with him just in case Harden fails with his enthusiasm for Atlanta nightlife
–Trae Young had 51.25 FP the last time he played Houston but his minutes have come down a bit since then. He’s still a solid play but his 21% ownership feels a little high
-I might be more inclined to go John Collins at one-third of the ownership with four straight games over 45.5 before a foul-ridden 20 minute effort vs Orlando last game. His usage has been up and his rebounding more consistent so even though his is a pretty big pace-down, I think he could be an interesting play
–Kevin Huerter interests me a little bit with some of the upside he’s shown in recent weeks but he hasn’t looked quite as involved since Dewayne Dedmon rejoined the starting lineup. He’s cheap enough to have a flier on
SWITCH: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
-Golden State is flat with their season average while Minnesota gets a slight 0.8 drop on theirs in a game with a 229.5 combined total
-With no DeMarcus Cousins expected again, this is a solid spot to go back to the Warriors, who had nice opportunities yesterday vs. San Antonio but didn’t have massive days that’ll draw a ton of ownership. Steph Curry has shot 23 and 25 times in his last two games, including 6-for-18 shooting from deep yesterday. Versus a Minnesota team allowing a slate-high 37.7% from deep, Curry could have a massive outlier day at just 15% expected ownership
–Klay Thompson put up just 32.25 FP vs San Antonio but shot 5-for-18 in that process. He seems due for some positive regression in this spot
–Kevin Durant is the least appealing of the trio with less usage and the ankle injury on a back-to-back but I could see wanting to come close to his 14% ownership but I’ll be more inclined to go to Draymond Green at half that number
–Tyus Jones has been priced up for Jeff Teague’s absence and while this isn’t a great price or situation, he should have to score some here so I don’t mind getting a little exposure there
–Karl-Anthony Towns though will benefit the most from no Teague and while it comes with some risk, the 32% expected ownership on him seems worth not missing out on. He’s had over a 40% usage rate in many games recently and it’s hard to see Andrew Bogut coming in with his second start after being at home and handling him on a back-to-back
-I get the impulse to want to go to Andrew Wiggins at his depressed price which is barely more than Tyus Jones but I’ll likely still be under the field on his 27% ownership. He hasn’t been good more often than not and the price feels like a trap to end up with a mediocre 30 FP day
HEDGE: Sacramento Kings vs Brooklyn Nets
-The Nets get a 3.5 point boost on their season average while Sacramento gets a 4 point boost on theirs in a game with a 233 combined total
–De’Aaron Fox projects for the most ownership in the game at 28% and he looks good with his price down. The assist upside should be cut into a little with how the Nets close out on shooters and the pace drop isn’t the best but if this game starts scoring on both sides, Fox could initiate a lot of action
–Willie Cauley-Stein looks decent in this spot at his $5,300 DraftKings price but he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling in games with all the main options available
–Buddy Hield can shoot himself into any spot so even though I don’t love this matchup for him with the Nets limiting attempts and makes from deep. I’ll likely come close to the field’s 18% given this big team total
–Marvin Bagley is at a reasonable price and he’s already shown monster upside since returning from injury with a 36.75 FP day vs Chicago in just 21 minutes. The lack of court time is a concern but if he started, I think he’d be a much more playable option
–D’Angelo Russell had a 58.25 FP day vs. the Clippers that was his first solid effort in a while. It might be more logical to go back to the cheaper Spencer Dinwiddie at one-third of the ownership rather than point chase Russell’s day at the 26% ownership expected for him; Dinwiddie still shot 16 times in that game despite Russell going off and he has shot at least 16 in his last three
–Caris LeVert also projects for as much ownership as Russell today and I’m definitely not dying for that one. LeVert starting helps – he’s been over 27 min since returning to the starting group the other day – but he has only cracked 35 FP once since his return to the lineup
-This isn’t a bad spot for Jarrett Allen with the usual caveat that he could see depressed minutes or yield run to Ed Davis. The 48.5 rebounds allowed per game by Sacramento is a slate high
HEDGE: Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets
-The Hornets get a 1.2 point boost on their season average while the Sixers without Joel Embiid get a 2.6 point drop on theirs in a game with a 224 point combined total
–Boban Marjanovic projects to be the highest owned on the slate at 53% ownership and while chalk Boban is terrifying, Brett Brown has committed to playing him big minutes in games without Embiid in the past. He’s also been willing to pull Boban if he’s not effective but with how hideous Charlotte has been vs. centers with no Cody Zeller and their small-ball lineups not good enough to play Boban off the court, it seems like a day to get close to the big man’s ownership
–Jimmy Butler looked reinvigorated after his “rest” day last week with two games of 44.5 and 45 FP vs. Sacramento and Milwaukee and the defense here doesn’t offer much of a challenge. I’d at least match the field’s 12% ownership expected for Butler with him showing a lot more aggression in these two games (and taking a lot away from the similarly priced Tobias Harris as a result)
–Ben Simmons looks fine though he also has ebbed a little while Butler has flowed. I’d be reluctant to go to many parts of the Simmons/Harris/Butler group in the same lineup right now. The groupings of Simmons and Harris and Butler with Boban make more sense as lineup constructions
–JJ Redick back in his alma mater’s state hasn’t been a narrative that’s paid off in the past but I’ll say it here in case it does today. He looks as serviceable as always but I’m not dying to get there
–Kemba Walker is averaging 65.7 FP in three games vs Philly this year so coming close to the field’s 23% expected ownership seems like a smart hedge to make just to be safe. The Sixers D has improved with their additions but missing out on that upside from Kemba could cost you the day
–Marvin Williams looks fine but the 30% ownership expected for him is asinine. I’d go somewhere else and get half the Marvin
-The 23% ownership for Nic Batum seems more fair. He’s been over 30 FP in seven of his last 11 games and that consistency is there far more than Marvin’s
–Jeremy Lamb still has the most upside to me out of the wings and I’d be willing to pay more for him at far less ownership than both Williams and Batum
–Frank Kaminsky also isn’t out of play with him getting 30 minutes last game. Bismack Biyombo will likely continue to start without much upside in minutes or production but Kaminsky could get extra time in an effort to stretch Boban out rather than leave him in the middle with Biyombo
SWITCH: Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers
-The Pacers get a 0.8 point drop on their season average while the Clippers get a 2.5 point drop on theirs in a game with a 219.5 combined total
-It’s a solid pace-up spot for Indiana so even though the team total isn’t too inspiring, having a piece of the Pacers seems like a wise move to me. Myles Turner projects to be the highest owned at 27% ownership and it feels well-deserved after a 47.5 FP day in a tougher spot vs. Portland yesterday. I worry a little about LA shooting a slate high 28.8 FT per game because those fouls will likely come at Turner’s hands (maybe making Domantas Sabonis an interesting pivot who still has a good amount of ownership on him) but Turner definitely has upside here
–Bojan Bogdanovic’s usage has come down recently so I’d be more comfortable with Thad Young at slightly less ownership right now. But either guy getting going wouldn’t be shocking vs the Clippers
–Darren Collison has some upside at his price but he’s not a guy whom I’d be dying for. He’s an interesting pivot to the higher owned PG plays though-
-I don’t love this spot for the Clippers so the only guy I’d really be interested in on their side is Lou Williams, whose usage has been steady and can spike that tournament upside at any day. You could maybe talk me into a Danilo Gallinari or two at under 5% ownership with three out of his last four over 44.25 FP but I’d be reluctant to put too many Clippers in there with the Pacers’ slow pace and D, though their back-to-back could lighten that effect a bit
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