We’ve got eight games on today’s NBA DFS slate and it’s a mix of intriguing fantasy games between teams with questionable motivation to play their key players and some potentially ugly ones with all the playoff ramifications in the world. There are no super obvious Devin Bookers or Damian Lillards (in nights other than last night where he might have gotten more fantasy points with his rap career than he did his basketball production) so you’ll have to make some tougher choices to have a shot at the pay window. I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
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SWITCH: Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
-The Kings get a 6.7 point boost on their season average while the Pelicans get a 1.3 point boost on theirs in a game with a 237.5 combined total
–Buddy Hield hasn’t shown much of a penchant for revenge in previous games against his former team but the matchup and its kindness to three point shooters make Hield pretty interesting at 14% projected ownership. The price is reasonable and his minutes have yet to take much of a haircut despite the Kings’ falling out of playoff contention
–De’Aaron Fox too has had a solid opportunity even if the results aren’t there with 16 shots each in his last two games. He should have scoring and assist upside in spades in this matchup
–Marvin Bagley saw decreased minutes last game for seemingly no good reason but that’s the Kings for you. He’s got a ton of upside in this matchup but with his price so high, the 10% ownership expected for him seems maybe a little light but not far off
–Bogdan Bogdanovic is over 29 minutes in his last two games but his price is fairly reasonable. He’s still only been at 28.75 and 30 FP in those games so the ceiling may still not be there for tournaments
-I’m slightly there with Harrison Barnes since he projects well for me but has shown a really poor floor lately. At 3% ownership, I can take a shot or two. I’m not there for Nemanca Bjelica with all these guys in the rotation since the odds of him having the outlier day just seem the lowest
–Elfrid Payton only played about 10 minutes in the second half despite Frank Jackson out with a concussion as Ian Clark took lead guard run down the stretch. I’m not comfortable paying Payton’s price with how things can flow away from him if he couldn’t get there vs Atlanta with no Anthony Davis in the lineup
–Julius Randle barely got where he needed to vs Atlanta despite the same AD-less situation and it’s hard to see enough upside with how the team has functioned with yielding shots to the younger players
–Christian Wood fits the criteria of someone who would be interesting but it’s hard to fully trust with AD back in the lineup taking minutes away. I’ll take a few shots at him because this is a great environment and Wood’s 1.3 FPPM this year is not an aberration with him having been hyperproductive any time he’s seen a court. Conversely I wouldn’t want much Cheick Diallo moving forward with them seemingly not wanting to invest any more time into seeing what he can do
-The aforementioned Ian Clark is at least a little interesting as a value guy but his 24% expected ownership feels a bit high for a guy with a questionable ceiling
SWITCH: Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets
-The Sixers get a 4.2 point boost on their season average while the Nets are flat with theirs in a game with a 231.5 combined total
–Joel Embiid is in a serious smash spot here with what we’ve seen happen to the Nets recently and I’ll at least match his 23% ownership in what should be a competitive game. It’s been three days since this team’s disappointing effort vs Orlando and I think they’ll bounce back big with Embiid leading the way
–Ben Simmons missed that Orlando game and with him back in the lineup at under 10% ownership, I’m interested in him today with his price down a bit
–Jimmy Butler has had over 44 FP in four out of six games and likely would have gotten there vs Orlando had they not been blown out. This is a situation where I can see stacking a few of these guys because I find it hard to believe Brooklyn lies down
-I’m least interested in Tobias Harris but his price is pretty solid too. JJ Redick as well. These guys are the least interesting, with Redick in particular likely to suffer from Brookyn’s closeouts on wing threes that help them maintain their 33.9% rate allowed from three, but I’d have some Harris at under 10% ownership
-Three out of the last four games for D’Angelo Russell have been over 58.25 FP and his “down game” was his 49.5 FP effort vs the Lakers. His price is up but he currently projects for under 5% ownership and while he may be due for a real stinker, he’s had at least 32% usage and 34 minutes in these games and that’s enough opportunity to make something happen
–Spencer Dinwiddie also looks pretty decent but not worth three times the projected ownership of Russell at 18%. The opportunity has been there for Dinwiddie – he had 41 minutes in OT last game vs Portland – but his shot has been horrible and that’s the main reason he’s failed. The shot has to turn around at some point so I’m cool with him but Russell is clearly the guy here
-It’s not a great three point shooting matchup for Brooklyn either so I’m not dying for Joe Harris but he’s been solid recently with 13 and 15 shots in his last two games so there could be some upside here
–Jarrett Allen interests me ever so slightly even though the risk of Embiid-related foul trouble is pretty high. That could mean more Ed Davis as a nice value
HEDGE: Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic
-It’s a 2.3 point drop for Detroit and a 4.1 point drop for Orlando in a game with a 207.5 combined total
-This is sort of an ugly game from a Vegas perspective but with serious playoff implications with both teams clinging to the 7th and 8th seeds in the Eastern conference, you should see both teams bring full effort as they did last game
-We saw both Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin bring it last game vs Denver with Griffin breaking out of his slump with 29 points and 15 boards resulting in a 58.75 FP day while Drummond was hampered by foul trouble and still had 47.75 FP in 29 minutes. These guys are priced down for the matchup but the rugged spot fits them at under 20% ownership
–Reggie Jackson projects well for me thanks to his decreased price but I’m certainly not dying to get there. He’s had at least 31 FP in two out of three games so…that’s something
–Luke Kennard and Wayne Ellington look okay as value guys but with the ceiling pretty low they’re more of a GPP dart toss…I’d lightly favor Kennard but Ellington is projected for far less ownership
–Nikola Vucevic hasn’t been great vs Detroit this year but his price is down enough where a decent Vuc day would be enough to pay off value. The field’s 23% expected ownership works for me
–Evan Fournier came back down to Earth vs Miami after three straight of at least 34.75 FP before that. It’s not a “good” bounceback spot but his usage could come back up from where it was vs Miami, just nine shots compared to 13-17 for the three before that. Still not a guy I imagine getting to a lot
-It’s sort of Vuc of bust for me here. Aaron Gordon projects okay and may make sense as a Vuc pivot at much less ownership and perpetually infuriating Terrence Ross can get there in any spot. DJ Augustin too looks alright but the low total here makes me think go big or ignore
SWITCH: Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks
-The Bucks get a 2.8 point boost while the Clippers get a 2.6 point drop in a game with a 232.5 combined total
-With Pat Beverley ruled out a few minutes into the second half of last game, Lou Williams played almost the entire rest of the game. While Landry Shamet’s return could mess that up a little, Lou has posted a 1.45 FPPM average with no Beverley, up from 1.26 in general. He’ll see some interesting defense but he could certainly spike an upside that keeps the Clips alive here
-Like Lou, Danilo Gallinari projects for under 5% ownership and could be interesting with his usage solid and some more rebounding recently. He’ll either thrive or bomb out with the Bucks defense today but he certainly seems worth some exposure with this Clippers team generally underrated and the Bucks often willing to let teams hang around
–Montrezl Harrell had 39.25 FP in the Clippers’ early season matchup vs the Bucks and he’s a type of player the Bucks have trouble with occasionally, a rugged interior player who can score and create havoc out of that position. His 9% projected ownership is the highest on the Clippers’ side, which seems reasonable
–Landry Shamet could be interesting in his return to the lineup if the Bucks allow him to gun from deep. He’s a total dart toss but someone will have to score today
–Giannis Antetokuonmpo looks good today in a decently paced spot. We all know what he can do and the ceiling he has so his 21% ownership seems fair even if a slate of this size may not require you to have him even if he has a 70 FP day
–Khris Middleton looks decent to me too; he certainly has less of a ceiling with Giannis out there but he shot 23 times last game vs Houston alongside Giannis and there should be some pace and decent looks for him at under 10% ownership
–Eric Bledsoe also looks decent but a little less appealing to me than Middleton. He also shot 19 times last game and that level of involvement definitely allows him a ceiling
HEDGE: Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
-The Raptors are flat with their season average while the Knicks get a 2.7 point drop on theirs in a game with a 216 combined total
–Kyle Lowry seems very underowned at 9% expected ownership with Kawhi Leonard sidelined for rest. Lowry’s biggest days of the year have come without Kawhi and now he gets a very assist friendly situation where he can also score a bunch. His price is down, he averages 1.32 FPPM in court time without Kawhi, it seems like a spot to get some Kyle and hope his ankle is good enough to beat up on the Knicks
–Fred VanVleet projects for far more ownership at 33% and he’s at a reasonable enough price to justify it. He sometimes takes playmaking opportunities away from Lowry so I wouldn’t want a ton of them together but he’s viable to me even if that ownership number feels a little high
–Pascal Siakam will pick up some opportunity without Kawhi but his price is high enough that he may not spike enough of a ceiling to be terribly useful. The poor Knicks rebounding should give him an opportunity to pad stats so I’d get at least the field’s 9% ownership expected for him
–Emmanuel Mudiay has had at least a 29.4% usage rate in his last two games and his price is still reasonable enough that I could see matching the field’s 26% expected ownership. He’s shot at least 17 times in his last three games and it’s the Knicks rotation and a tough defense in the Raptors but he has to do better than the 11.5 FP day he had vs Toronto 10 days ago. And if he doesn’t, Kadeem Allen lurks as the ownership pivot
–Damyean Dotson is also seeing minutes and opportunity and Kevin Knox potentially missing after being marked questionable would only secure his role moreso. Dotson was also demolished last time vs Toronto with 15.5 FP in 18 minutes so these guys may want some degree of retribution back at home if they’re capable of it
-Everything else here…meh. It seems unlikely DeAndre Jordan has the 50.25 FP day he had vs his former team in the Clippers last time out. If anything, I think Mitchell Robinson may provide a spark that earns him more run
HEDGE: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
-The Heat get a 2.1 point boost on their season average while Dallas gets a 7.8 point drop on theirs in a game with a 208.5 combined total
-With two straight triple doubles with at least 62.75 FP and around a 38% usage rate, I’m up to match the field’s 16% ownership on Luka Doncic. This is a terrible matchup with low pace and suffocating guys to throw at Luka but it seems like they’ve reconsidered his minutes cap with Luka clocking 36 minutes in a taxing pace-up spot vs Sacramento and if anyone can find slivers in this Miami D, it’s Luka. It’s worth the potential bomb to not miss out on the ceiling with where his price is
–Dwight Powell is the only other Mav I would consider even though there’s a 99% chance he doesn’t come close to the 50 FP day he had vs Sacramento. It’s a much worse spot for rebounding and interior scoring but he can get to usefulness at his current price
-The Heat side actually projects as decent value but given that they’re the Heat and the rotations are garbage, I’d only be willing to play Josh Richardson if he’s in after being marked questionable or Dwyane Wade with two straight games of at least 16 shots and 40.75 FP. You could also see Goran Dragic steal some shots back from Wade if he sucks less than he has the last few games but none of these guys seem worth a ton of ownership
-You could also talk me into some Bam Adebayo with his minutes secure and 16% ownership projected for him. But it’s not exactly a must have
HEDGE: Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets
-The Rockets get a 2.2 point drop on their season average while the Nuggets get a 5.8 point drop on theirs in a game with a 216.5 combined total
–James Harden has been harassed and trapped by the Nuggets this year and his high of 64.75 FP vs them is not that impressive in the context of his year. The 18% ownership expected for Harden is fair because he can always heat up or just get to the line 7000 times but it feels risky with how the Nuggets have thrown the kitchen sink at him
–Chris Paul and Clint Capela become a little more interesting for me as a result at slightly less ownership. Paul hasn’t shown much in the way of upside and Capela isn’t far off; I’d slightly prefer Capela of the two but neither having a nice day would shock me
–Nikola Jokic is an interesting play at just 5% ownership projected with some other big ticket centers looking much more secure on paper. Jokic has shown 63.75 FP upside vs Houston this year but there’s certainly risk for him given the floor he’s shown recently with so many Nuggets to take usage away from him
–Will Barton and Gary Harris are at reasonable prices to take shots at but neither looks like a smash play. Around 5% ownership for both is the most appealing part
HEDGE: San Antonio Spurs vs Cleveland Cavaliers
-The Spurs get a 3.2 point boost on their season average while the Cavs get a 1.4 point drop on theirs in a game with a 218 combined total
-San Antonio’s rotations have been in playoff mode with them trying their hardest to get out of the 8 spot and a battle with Golden State. It’s possible this is a spot where the rotation gets Pop’d and sees less to save up for more difficult matchups down the stretch but at face value, I’d match LaMarcus Aldridge’s 15% expected ownership after he’s shot 18 and 31 times in his last two games
–DeMar DeRozan has been a little less involved than Aldridge overall but he’s still there with at least 46 FP in three out of his last five
–Derrick White had an impressive 27.25 FP despite 0-for-10 shooting vs Charlotte and while he interests me less than Aldridge or Rudy Gay (at more ownership than White), I really can’t object too much with his price where it is
-The Cavs’ slate-high 37.4% allowed from deep make me think we could see this be a day where Aldridge and DeRozan let up because a guy like Bryn Forbes or Marco Belinelli heats up from deep so those guys would be interesting lower owned counters to the key Spurs. Not guys to want a lot of but they’re a little interesting, especially in a late slate
–Kevin Love had a pretty poor day last time vs Boston but his price is down and his 31% usage was one of his highest marks since returning from injury. It’s not an ideal spot but I’m interested in running it back with him at just 5% projected ownership
–Larry Nance is also a little interesting with him still getting 31 minutes last game despite Tristan Thompson starting. Nance could cede some minutes if he’s not being effective but he is generally productive with his court time
–Collin Sexton is an interesting play at just 1% ownership with how the Spurs have struggled with lead guards. It’s possible Jordan Clarkson does more damage in the second unit but Sexton gets the first crack
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