It’s the regular season finale in the NBA as we move toward the playoffs and though 15 of the 16 teams are locked in, there are still lots of things that teams are playing for that will have NBA DFS relevance for you. What is each NBA team playing for on tonight’s final regular season slate of the year? I did the research and compiled it all for you as well as my thoughts on the rotations, random guys who could have a big day today, and narrative items you need to know in today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge. Along with our ownership projections and the key data, I’ll tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out for this, our very emotional last night of full-strength basketball. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball options for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
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HEDGE: Portland Trailblazers vs Sacramento Kings
-The Blazers get a 4.1 point boost on their season average while Sacramento gets a 3.5 point drop on theirs in a game with a 229 combined total
–UPDATE 12:10PM Pacific: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum both are ruled out for rest and that makes me think Portland is not as concerned about their ability to move to the 3 seed with a win by them and Denver (which would bump Houston to 4). The absence of these two makes Seth Curry and Evan Turner more interesting but if we read the tea leaves, you may want to avoid injury to those guys as well as likely key playoff rotational pieces. I’ll have some Curry and Turner but there is a possibility we see more of guys in the Anfernee Simons and Meyers Leonard tier rather than risk injury on a back-to-back to guys with important minutes in the rotation.
–Enes Kanter interests me some with a stellar rebounding spot vs the league worst Sacramento interior who allows 48 RPG. I’d chase his 47.5 FP effort vs LA more than I would a guy like Mo Harkless’s equally impressive but far more fluky 44.5 FP game
–De’Aaron Fox went big in the Sacramento home finale with 57 FP vs New Orleans and while I don’t mind him here, I wouldn’t want more than the field’s 17% projected. He looks fine but I’m not sure I see a ceiling effort there
–Marvin Bagley has between 16 and 20 shots in his last five games and that kind of outlay gives him tournament upside in most situations. I do think there’s some risk with him given his elevated price and a solid rebounding Portland side but he can certainly get there
–Buddy Hield’s shot opportunities have been there and I’d be more inclined for him or Bogdan Bogdanovic than to chase Harrison Barnes’ 10-for-18 day vs New Orleans
HEDGE: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks
-The Spurs get a 4.8 point boost on their season average while the Mavs get a 6.5 point drop on theirs in a game with a 219 combined total
-The Spurs can move up to the #6 seed with a win and an OKC loss so this game is a necessity for them. I’d slightly prefer DeMar DeRozan because of the matchup but with both him and LaMarcus Aldridge between 15 and 20% projected ownership, I’d match the field on both. It’s a winnable spot vs a team on a back-to-back and the risk is really the 14 point spread favoring San Antonio at home
-I could see a little Derrick White exposure at his price but he’s a lower priority to me than the big two here
–Jakob Poeltl is an interesting value option with him over 26.25 FP and 24 minutes in his last two. He’ll go forgotten among the new values that open up throughout the day, but is a viable pivot to them
–Dirk Nowitzki had a stellar home sendoff yesterday and I don’t hate a little exposure for his now-announced final game vs an old rival in San Antonio. But mostly this feels like am emotional letdown spot after a big win in Dirk’s home finale
–Luka Doncic had the monster day I expected vs Phoenix but I’d wonder how much he pushes things (and they push him) with a back-to-back and his ongoing injury issues to close out the year. Some exposure is fine but I’d be reluctant to go nuts on him and more inclined to play him in Dirk lineups
SWITCH: Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic
-The Hornets and Magic are both flat with their season averages in a game with a 218 combined total
-It’s not a great spot on paper but I’m willing to pay up some for Kemba Walker today after busting as chalk yesterday due to a blowout vs Cleveland, ownership expected for Damian Lillard at a similar price, and the Hornets’ playoff fates still in the balance. It’s a home finale where the Hornets are in if the Pistons lose and they win and while Orlando can drop in seeding, they may not have much motivation today with their spot assured
–Jeremy Lamb would interest me too with some scoring potentially needed here and a price that allows some upside. At under 5% projected ownership, he’d be an interesting option
-The wing time could get crowded if Nic Batum is available today so I’d be a little less reluctant for Miles Bridges today if he’s in. Frank Kaminsky’s time seems safer with Marvin Williams currently likely to be out again
–Nikola Vucevic was downgraded to questionable with an illness with Khem Birch expected to start if he sits. Birch is a perfectly fine option averaging .98 FPPM if he does pick up the start
–Aaron Gordon would also be a bit more interesting with Vuc sidelined with some more rebounding and scoring opportunities
–Evan Fournier is more interesting with Vuc than without but with the Magic’s playoff seeding fates out of their hands, I’m not interested in much more than the field’s sub-5% projected ownership. The Magic move to the 6 seed with a Nets loss and the Pistons in the playoffs but their outcome today has no impact on that process
-It wouldn’t be shocking to see Terrence Ross put up a meaningless big day here, especially if the starters see abridged run. His price is up to a stupid level but if he spikes that upside, he’ll likely be low owned in tournaments
SWITCH: Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
-The Pistons get a 1.5 point boost on their season average while the Knicks get a 5.3 point drop on theirs in a game with a 208 combined total
–Andre Drummond has carried the Pistons during Blake Griffin’s injury-laden swoon to end the year and this spot vs New York is as good as it gets for him. Blake was disinvolved in 18 minutes yesterday while Drummond got the same opportunity he has when Blake is sidelined and I’d bank on that again with the Pistons needing a win or a Hornets loss to clinch a playoff spot (with both teams tipping off at the same time)
–Ish Smith is an interesting value option with two straight games of 31.75 FP with 15+ shot attempts. Coach Dwane Casey is clearly leaning on the hot and more reliable hands to get into the playoffs and while that could be Reggie Jackson if he heats up, if he fails it’s Ish’s opportunity to take in a strong matchup
-It’s hard to pay up for Wayne Ellington on a slate with real value but he can certainly spike an upside day vs this iffy Knicks defense. He and Luke Kennard will be overlooked wing options with some degree of potential if better value doesn’t open up
–Mario Hezonja was a late scratch yesterday (sorry FanDuel owners) and the broadcast team claimed he was throwing up before the game. His status today is key as another point Hezonja day would be very interesting even with his elevated price while him missing would mean Dennis Smith is a playable mid-priced guy with some upside
–Luke Kornet interests me again with him looking good as long as he picks up a start. His near-50 FP effort yesterday will drive his ownership up a bit so it may be worth just matching the field rather than going nuts (especially if he ends up outside the action covering Decoy Blake due the value he picks up from blocks)
–Mitchell Robinson’s price continues to rise despite mediocre showings, four straight under 35 FP, but this spot could be interesting with so much action run through Drummond. Mitchell averaged 1.7 FPPM the last time he faced Detroit and it’s not impossible he brings it for the Knicks’ home finale
–Kevin Knox is borderline playable if Hezonja is out but I wouldn’t go there otherwise
SWITCH: Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
-The Thunder get a 1 point boost on their season average while the Bucks get a 5.8 point drop on theirs in a game with a 227.5 combined total
-OKC moves to the six seed with a win while a loss could put them in the Warriors’ crossfire for the 8 seed with Clippers and Spurs wins so they need this one. And I think it’s a spot to consider both Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Both guys were maximum effort vs Houston yesterday, especially down the stretch, and this Bucks team is good enough to keep it competitive even without some of their stars. I like this spot for these guys at under 20% ownership
-I could see Jerami Grant getting a shocking number of looks from three if he wants to take them because of the Bucks’ defensive approach. I don’t hate a taste of tournament exposure to him at 1% ownership expected
–DJ Wilson is expected to be the chalk Buck with Giannis Antetokuonmpo and Brook Lopez sidelined and that seems okay enough given his reasonable price and previous success with no Giannis or Nikola Mirotic out there. I think Bonzie Coulson is an interesting lower owned pivot but he also projects for a good bit of ownership thanks to his minimum salary
–Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are unlikely to see enough minutes to have an upside at their prices. Both guys were in the mid-20s last game and with the Bucks totally locked into their #1 seed in the East, there’s no reason to risk them
-I wouldn’t pay up for Pat Connaughton or Sterling Brown today with Middleton/Bledsoe likely to take enough off the table and these guys also possibly seeing a middling amount of minutes because they do have valuable rotational roles worth protecting for the playoffs. If more guys ends up ruled out, that situation could change
–Tim Frazier interests me a little with him the type of guy who’d force action to keep the Bucks in this game if the starters see even less run than they did vs Atlanta last time out
HEGDE: Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
-The Nuggets get a 4 point boost on their season average while the Wolves get a 9 point drop on theirs in a game with a 218.5 combined total
-Denver clinches the #2 seed with a win and they’ll drop to #3 if they lose so it seems likely they’ll come out to win this one. The question is whether the Wolves can keep it close with an 11 point spread favoring the Nuggets at home. It’s hard to expect a full run for guys like Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray given the matchup and fact that Denver has shown they don’t seem to want to play all out to get the 2 seed but these guys really need to get in a rhythm before the playoffs start. They’re likely worth matching the field’s 20 and 15% expected ownership, respectively
–Gary Harris’s usage was up last game vs Utah with 15 shots and I don’t hate him as another value pivot at under 5% ownership
-The other secondary pieces of Paul Millsap or Will Barton are a little less interesting and overall it may be more logical to take shots at more minutes for Monte Morris or Mason Plumlee, though neither is a stellar value like a Malik Beasley can be
-The total here seems to indicate we can expect to not see Karl-Anthony Towns again and that would make Gorgui Dieng one of my preferred plays on the slate as value without an insane amount of ownership currently expected for him. He had 35.75 FP yesterday vs Toronto filling in for Towns and this matchup is no worse than that one
–Tyus Jones had more playmaking time without Towns out there and I don’t hate him as a result at under 5% projected ownership
–Cam Reynolds could be a value guy to consider for tournaments with him putting up 10 shots in 19 minutes vs Toronto yesterday. He or Jared Terrell would be the super cheap guys capable of spiking a random big day to close out the year while Keita Bates-Diop should get the first crack but is unlikely to take on much more usage
SWITCH: Utah Jazz at LA Clippers
-The Clippers get a 0.7 point boost on their season average while the Jazz get a 1.9 point drop on theirs in a game with a 225 combined total
-It’s rare I advocate to fully switch away from a game but that seems like the case to me here with Utah’s side projected to have several guys at 20%+ ownership but the Jazz locked into the 5 seed. They have nothing to gain with this effort here on a back-to-back so I’d go under the field on Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell at their ceiling prices
–Royce O’Neale projects for a ton of ownership too and I could see going there more so with him more likely to play a lot of the game. But with him a fairly important sub with all the guard health issues for Utah, maybe he doesn’t see as much run as it seems like he should get
-It could be a spot for Grayson Allen, Georges Niang, and Ekpe Udoh as value guys with Allen showing the most in the way of usage but the other guys more solid per-minute guys. I wouldn’t dig to Naz Long territory but overall it wouldn’t shock me to see the Jazz subs have a day here while people are all over the key guys because they assume Utah needs a win
-The Clippers can avoid Golden State with a win and a loss by OKC or San Antonio but they should know their fate by the time the game tips off so that could affect everything here. It’s hard to imagine those losses occurring so while I could see having some exposure to Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, or Montrezl Harrell, it seems like the bench could end up being featured heavily here
-The Clippers’ best young guys are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ivica Zubac but both are key rotational players so there situation could go either way if the Clippers are locked into the 8 seed by tip off. I think I’d be most inclined for Zubac in the hopes he sees extended run rather than his usual 20ish minutes but SGA could get some time running the team vs Jazz backups
–Jerome Robinson and Ty Wallace are value guys to consider but they seem risky even if the game doesn’t end up mattering. Wallace has had productive fantasy moments before while Robinson can shoot better than he’s shown in the league thus far. Those guys and Sindarious Thornwell and Johnathan Motley have been the most recent blowout lineup for LA
-It may be more logical to target a Wilson Chandler who isn’t a key rotational piece for LA but could see more usage in a meaningless game but it all feels tough to unpack unless we get lineup news before the game starts
HEDGE: Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors
-The Grizzlies get a 2.3 point boost on their season average while the Warriors get an 8.2 point drop on theirs in a game with a 215 combined total
–Delon Wright projects for 30% ownership after a horrific chalk bust yesterday vs Detroit following two straight triple doubles vs Dallas and I don’t hate going back there at close to the field in their home finale. The opportunity is there for him and seeing Warriors scrubs across from him isn’t a bad place to be
–Bruno Caboclo went for 46.75 FP the last time he played Golden State and he’s capable of similar heights if he gets the run today. His minutes have been up and down but the opportunity will be there for him at 1% ownership
-I don’t mind a game stack here including Tyler Dorsey or Justin Holiday. Even Ivan Rabb looks okay here, though better only if he started over Tyler Zeller (who was a nice low-owned value I discussed yesterday as he put up 27.5 FP in 19 minutes)
-The status of the Golden State players is key to watch. We know Steph Curry is out after an injury yesterday and Quinn Cook projects for 49% ownership as a result, the current chalkiest on the slate. He’s a nice value but his ceiling may not be so high that you can’t find better low owned value elsewhere
–Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant seem unlikely to see anything close to their full run while the expectation is Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins sit after playing yesterday. These guys are all unplayable to me and even the 5-10% ownership projected for Klay and Durant feels risky
–Damion Lee has been an unashamed shooter when there’s usage to go around and I’d look to him and Jacob Evans first out of the non-Cook bench guys. Alfonzo McKinnie is in the mix too
–Jordan Bell would seem most likely to pick up some of the big minutes with Kevon Looney a more necessary rotational piece for the playoffs and I don’t mind tournament exposure to him as a low-owned value. Everyone outside of Cook will be overlooked today so there is some opportunity potentially
HEDGE: Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers
-The Hawks are flat with their season average while Indiana gets a 4.3 point boost on theirs in a game with a 225 combined total
-Atlanta’s home crowd has willed them to great things this year so I’m interested in rostering one last hurrah for Trae Young and the boys. Indiana gets weaker with all the guys out and that should benefit a good showing for Trae in particular even though his price is uncomfortably high despite him being over 45.25 FP in six out of his last seven games
–John Collins projects for more ownership than Trae and his usage has been pretty high down the stretch. With the bigs out for Indiana, this is a solid spot for him
–Alex Len would be the most interesting piece to me outside of those guys with Taurean Prince and Kevin Huerter not terribly exciting in this kind of matchup
-With no Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis, Kyle O’Quinn should soar in popularity. He’s now in a killer spot vs Atlanta with only TJ Leaf lurking as a mostly mediocre pivot
–Thad Young and Bojan Bogdanovic are both out too alongside Wes Matthews so there will be minutes on the wing to go around. Tyreke Evans is more interesting as a result
–Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are both expected to be available but I’d rather go to Aaron Holiday for cheap with some upside here if those guys see abridged run
HEDGE: Brooklyn Nets vs Miami Heat
-The Nets get a 0.7 point drop on their season average while the Heat get a 0.6 point boost on theirs in a game with a 218 combined total
-Brooklyn gets the 6 seed with a win (and also even if they lose but Charlotte gets in over Detroit) while Miami was eliminated yesterday with Detroit’s win over Memphis. I’m still not terribly interested in Brooklyn and with no one projected for over 5% ownership on their side, I’d just have a few shares of D’Angelo Russell or Spencer Dinwiddie if making multiple lineups
–Dwyane Wade is the first guy to consider after a nice final home game yesterday. Much like Dirk, this feels like a letdown spot after the home finale so I can see having some Wade exposure but it’s hard to want a lot now that they’re out of the playoff hunt
-I could see Hassan Whiteside going maximum effort today to send a message after putting up 37.75 FP in 14 min vs Philly yesterday. The game doesn’t matter so he deserves some run after not complaining much about his highly reduced role
-Unless guys are ruled out tonight, I wouldn’t want much more of Miami. A Derrick Jones feels like he deserves a shot at more usage today but he seems unlikely to get that with all these guys likely playing mediocre amounts of minutes today
HEDGE: Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls
-The Sixers are flat with their season average while the Bulls get a 2.6 point boost on theirs in a game with a 223 combined total
-Philly remains locked into the #3 seed in the East while a loss neither helps nor hurts the Bulls’ tanking odds so there isn’t much to find in the way of additional motivation here. It seems like a decent probability Philly rests or severely limits their starters so it’s hard to go to anyone really out of that group
–Greg Monroe is the most interesting value guy to me; he had 26.75 FP in 19 minutes vs Miami yesterday and it seems like he should get a nice opportunity today with reliable 1.06 FPPM production
–TJ McConnell could end up running the offense for a lot of the game and that adds some value to him. Ben Simmons ruled out would make him a bit more comfortable as well
-I’d take Jonathan Simmons over Zhaire Smith but both are in play as value. Shake Milton has the coolest name but is not a significantly better or worse option than those two
–JaKarr Sampson went wild vs former team in Philly with 45 FP four days ago but his status is up in the air with his ten-day contract having ended yesterday. If he’s in, I’m interested in some exposure despite his elevated price. The usage has been there, even in that down effort her had yesterday where he shot just 4-for-16, so if he’s in he’s good
-If Sampson is out, there’s a lot of minutes to dole out that would likely roll back to Wayne Selden. I’m not super enthused by him or any of the other options. It seems dumb but you could justify some exposure to a priced up Shaq Harrison if Sampson isn’t in the lineup
–Walt Lemon was pulled from the starting lineup for Ryan Arcidiacono for seemingly no reason yesterday and I’d be willing to go to the Golden Arches if he picks up the start again. A return to his college/hometown in Philly seems like a strong recipe with all the usage to go around for Chicago
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