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NBA DFS Switch and Hedge: Where’s The Value? | 9/5




The big news continues to be the country's response to racial issues and calls for change, including the tragic killing of Oluwatoyin Salau.

The NBA playoffs are underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

Patrick Beverley‘s Playing Time

Beverley was a chalk play on Thursday and it worked out even though it probably shouldn’t have in hindsight. Coming back from a calf injury, Beverley started and that looked like an indication to me that he would play a healthy amount of minutes. Instead, he played just 12 minutes, but paid off his salary anyway. If we knew he was playing 12 minutes prior to Game 1, none of us would have rostered Beverley.

Heading into Game 2, Beverley is once again on a minutes restriction. Even so, I expect more minutes than he played a couple days ago. Not only was that Beverley’s first game in a couple weeks, the Clippers destroyed the Nuggets and all starters played limited minutes. Although the minutes restriction is a concern, the value options on this slate are not great and 20 minutes from Beverley is a better option than many end of the bench players. The only thing that might get me off of Beverley is if he winds up projected for a massive amount of ownership. If this is the case then looking at somebody like Landry Shamet is a pivot makes some sense.

Toronto Playing Desperate

When the season is on the line, teams that aren’t the Bucks do desperate things to win. This led to Kyle Lowry playing nearly the entire game on Thursday to prevent the Raptors from sliding into a 3-0 hole. He played all but 90 seconds and Toronto came away with a miracle win on buzzer beating three by OG Anunoby in the corner. With the series now 2-1, the Raptors are very much alive. If Lowry played even a second less on Thursday, the series could have a different outlook.

For NBA DFS purposes, what happened in Game 3 makes the Raptors really strong targets. Overall, Lowry is my favorite play on the slate, especially on DraftKings. He’s underpriced and his recent workload gives him a terrific combination of ceiling and floor. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam also make for strong plays, but I consider Lowry the strongest option of the trio.

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Gary Harris Locked Into A Starting Role

The Nuggets started Harris over Monte Morris to open their series against the Clippers and I expect this change to stick. Even though Denver got crushed on Thursday, the deck was stacked against them. Coming off of a seven-game series against the Jazz and playing a more talented team in the Clippers, fatigue was a massive issue. Harris started for almost all of the regular season and he’s one of the best two-way players on Denver. His defense is needed to help contain Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. I don’t think he will succeed at defending them, but Harris is able to limit the damage a bit more than anybody else on the roster. I don’t expect Harris to garner much ownership and he makes for a solid play in all formats.

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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