Tonight features a very small three-game NBA slate features by the Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets game. That game has a point total well above the other two games and the playoff implications are huge. Each game on this slate matters for playoff seeding, so we may have a great slate on our hands! This article is driven by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play. News isn’t much of a factor tonight, but you never know with the NBA this time of the year. Stay up to date on Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Kevin Durant: $11,000 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel
23.2% DraftKings Boom/26.4% FanDuel Boom
The player with the highest NBA DFS projection on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Kevin Durant. His salary may be tough to get too, but his ceiling is incredibly high. Durant has averaged 58.4 DraftKings points per game over his last six games, which includes a game where he scored under 40 DraftKings points because the Nets blew out the Heat on the road. Durant also has a 31.3% usage rate per game this season, which is tied for the third-highest in his career. He has shot over 50% from the field in nine straight seasons.
Durant has had to step in with Kyrie Irving struggling. Irving is in a slump where he is shooting just 35.6% from the field in his last four games averaging 19 points per game. This matchup with the Hawks is by far the best game environment on the slate. The total is sitting at 242 points as it is 24 points higher than the next closest game! The Nets are implied for 122.25 points as they are 2.5-point road favorites. Prioritize Durant on FanDuel where he has the sixth-highest boom percentage in our Boom/Bust Tool and is leading the way in our NBA Fantasy ownership projections. His peripherals are climbing as he is averaging a career-high 6.2 assists per game, which raises his ceiling.
Boom: Donovan Mitchell: $8,400 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel
23.5% DraftKings Boom/26.9% FanDuel Boom
Our Fantasy Basketball Rankings is another good tool to find great plays on any given slate. The only player with an A Grade and A Value on either site is Donovan Mitchell. Similar to the Nets, the Jazz are small road favorites against the Warriors who are without Stephen Curry for the rest of the regular season. The Warriors rank third in defensive rating this season, but they are in a downward spiral lately. They have lost seven of their last eight games and are allowing 111.5 points per game, which is very high for them this season.
This is a difficult slate to dissect, especially using our Boom/Bust Tool as the boom percentages are pretty low across the board. Mitchell ranks fifth in boom percentage on DraftKings and FanDuel, but is under 27% on both sites. He has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league this season and recently. Over his last 11 games, Mitchell has scored over 40 DraftKings points in nine of those games, while averaging 44.4 DraftKings points per game during that time. He also ranks fifth in usage rate at 33.2% per game.
Latest NBA DFS Content
- DraftKings Showdown Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today | 5/25/2022
- FanDuel Single-Game Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today | 5/25/2022
- 📽️ The NBA DFS Strategy Show | Wednesday 5/25
- NBA DFS Picks and Fantasy Basketball Building Blocks for Today, Tuesday | 5/24
- 📽️ NBA DFS Picks: Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock | Monday 5/24
- Awesemo DFS on Youtube
Boom: Otto Porter: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel
16.0% DraftKings Boom/11.2% FanDuel Boom
This article feels made for Otto Porter with how he is playing lately. When he is in the lineup, Porter has been extremely boom or bust recently. Over the last five games, Porter has three games where he had a double-double in each game averaging 14.7 points, 14 rebounds, and 37.6 DraftKings points per game. The other two games he averaged 4.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 14.1 DraftKings points per game. The minutes are in the high 20s in all five of these games, but the output has been drastic. Which Porter shows up tonight?
The inconsistency of Porter’s game makes him a great tournament play as he has upside at this price tag could be the key piece in breaking the slate. The rebounding upside that Porter has shown lately is incredible. However, the Jazz are the second-best rebounding team in the league thanks to league-leader Rudy Gobert. Porter is not grading well in many of our tools, especially our NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool, but if you dive deeper there is upside here. Getting a player who can double-double at this salary on a small slate is a game changer.
Bust: DeMar DeRozan: $8,600 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel
41.0% DraftKings Bust/49.9% FanDuel Bust
This fade scares me. DeMar DeRozan is starting to potentially peak again like he did in February when he scored over 30 points in 10 straight games. Over the last three games, DeRozan is averaging 39.7 points and 57.2 DraftKings points per game. He also has a usage rate of 37.9% during that time while making 33-of-34 from the charity stripe. Pretty impressive that in his 13th season, DeRozan is averaging a career-high 28 points per game. However, he has only averaged 23 points per game against the Heat this season.
The difficult Heat matchup is what will need to be leaned on for this fade. The Bulls are two-point home underdogs implied for the lowest total on the slate at 107.25 points. They struggle against the top teams in the Eastern Conference. They are 0-3 against the Heat this season, losing by a combined 39 points in their last two games. The Heat also play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. DeRozan will be aggressive, but our NBA daily fantasy projections show how bad of a value he is on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Our NBA projections FanDuel are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Looking for more DFS FanDuel picks NBA and the top NBA DFS picks tonight? View our FanDuel NBA ownership, our Yahoo! NBA ownership and our DraftKings ownership projections. Check out our DFS basketball rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA DraftKings projections. We also have DraftKings NBA ownership rankings, FanDuel ownership rankings and Yahoo! NBA rankings for today's slate.
DraftKings Showdown Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today | 5/25/2022
FanDuel Single-Game Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today | 5/25/2022
NBA DFS Ownership Projections: Showdown & Single-Game
NBA DFS Projections for No House Advantage
NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability
Awesemo’s NBA DFS Rankings
NBA DFS Projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and No House Advantage Daily Fantasy (FREE TODAY)
NBA Player Prop Betting Stat Projections Today