There are only two days left in the NBA regular season. Every team will play tomorrow, but tonight offers a three-game slate that will be very interesting to break down as only one team really has much to play for. There is no one priced $10,000 or higher, so salary shouldn’t be an issue on this slate. These plays are driven by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play. There could be some big news coming out later in the day as most of these teams are already resting players, so make sure to stay up to date on Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Zach Collins: $4,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel
36.2% DraftKings Boom/28.8% FanDuel Boom
The best team to target for value on this small three-game slate, especially on DraftKings, is the San Antonio Spurs. They are home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors and are projected for only 107 points, but Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl and Devin Vassell are all out. They have six of the top seven players with the highest boom percentage in our NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool on DraftKings tonight. My favorite option is Zach Collins, who has averaged 31.5 DraftKings points per game in his last four games.
The Spurs have a very slim chance of moving into the ninth seed for the play-in tournament, so they will have to win two road games to make the playoffs. That is why they are resting so many players tonight and likely tomorrow as well. There are several Spurs players that can fill into your lineup, but Collins seems to have the most upside. He has made 57.8% of his field goals over the last six games and has scored double digit points in six of his last seven games. Awesemo daily fantasy NBA projections have Collins to be in the top five of value for both sites.
Boom: Jordan Poole: $8,000 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel
24.4% DraftKings Boom/24.5% FanDuel Boom
The Golden State Warriors are the only team on this slate that is actually playing for something. The other teams basically have their playoff seeds locked up or are already eliminated from playoff contention. The Warriors lead the Mavericks by a half-game for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. The Mavericks hold the tie-breaker with their head-to-head record so the Warriors need to win tonight against the Spurs and tomorrow night against the Pelicans to secure the No. 3 seed. The best option on this team right now is Jordan Poole.
Poole is not only the best option on the Warriors, but he may be the best option on the entire slate. Poole is leading the slate on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA DFS ownership projections. Poole has been incredible without Stephen Curry this season, who is out until the first round of the playoffs. In 15 games without Curry, Poole is averaging 26.3 points and 42.8 DraftKings points per game. He also has a 30.8% usage rate during that time. He is a great option that is cheap playing against a team resting nearly all of their starters.
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Boom: Paul George: $9,300 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel
19.4% DraftKings Boom/27.5% FanDuel Boom
On paper, Paul George looks like an incredible play against the Sacramento Kings tonight. The field absolutely loves George as he is second to Poole in our ownership projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel. George is also the second most expensive player, but does lead the slate in most fantasy points in our NBA daily fantasy projections. My only concern in this spot is the playing time. We have George projected for 33.5 minutes, but the Clippers have already locked up their seed in the play-in tournament, and this is the first game of a back-to-back.
Our projection for George does seem a little high as the most he has played in a game since returning from injury is 32 minutes. Maybe he is going to ramp up the minutes to prepare for the play-in tournament and potential playoff spot, but there is some risk involved here. In his four games since returning, George is averaging 44.8 DraftKings points per game. He has upside as his highest during that time is 57.5 DraftKings points. If George gets his minutes stretched out tonight, he is the best pay-up option on the entire slate.
Bust: Ja Morant: $9,800 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel
93.0% DraftKings Bust/89.8% FanDuel Bust
This fade should be self explanatory, but Ja Morant has an extremely high bust percentage in our Boom/Bust Tool. By far the highest on the slate. He is questionable to play, so make sure to monitor the starting lineup to see whether he is in or out of the lineup tonight. If he is out, fade his replacement Tyus Jones. Both point guards are simply priced too high and Morant hasn’t played since March 18. He will likely return for this game or next game before the Grizzlies enter their playoff run as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
In Morant’s last two games before he was injured, he was a little disappointing as he finished with under 40 DraftKings points in each game. Morant is the highest-priced player on the slate and even if he plays, he will likely have his minutes monitored. Our daily projections have him only playing 23.5 minutes tonight, which won’t get it done at his salary on either site. If Morant does play that also makes many of the other Grizzlies unplayable as well. They have the highest implied total on the slate at 118 points, but they are tough to get too.
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View our FanDuel NBA ownership, our DraftKings ownership projections and our Yahoo! ownership projections. We also have FanDuel rankings, DraftKings NBA ownership rankings and Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings for today's slate. Our NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Check out our NBA DraftKings rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA daily projections. Looking for more DFS FanDuel picks NBA and the best NBA DFS advice?
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