This evening features a medium-sized seven-game NBA slate that has so many top tier players questionable to play. It will be essential to stay up to date on Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight. Sunday’s in the NBA are always driven by news, so we’ll do our best here at Awesemo to keep everyone updated. These plays below are driven by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Nikola Jokic: $12,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel
24.4% DraftKings Boom/27.5% FanDuel Boom
The highest-priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the largest ceiling on this seven-game slate is Nikola Jokic. Surprise surprise. There are several high-priced players who are questionable to play tonight including Joel Embiid, Trae Young, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jokic is going to look even better from a raw points perspective if they all were to miss tonight’s action. Jokic has recorded a double-double in 24 consecutive games. During that time he is averaging 25.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game.
Jokic also leads the league in triple-doubles with 18 while Dejounte Murray is the next closest at 12. He is the only player with games over 90 DraftKings points this season and he has two of them. He can reach a level that no one else can. The Celtics lead the league in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-best 103.6 points per game. The Nuggets are three-point home underdogs implied to score 110 points. Despite the matchup, there is value to get to Jokic and plenty of question marks at the top where Jokic is the clear cut pay-up option.
Boom: Trey Lyles: $5,100 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel
17.8% DraftKings Boom/25.3% FanDuel Boom
One of the best options for value, especially on FanDuel is power forward Trey Lyles. Over the last five games, Lyles is averaging 13.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 54.5% from the field. His minutes have also ramped up to 29.6 per game with Richaun Holmes still out. Awesemo projects Lyles to be one of the better values on FanDuel where he cheap salary provides a lot of upside. The extra minutes and production is not being reciprocated with the salary on either site, making Lyles a great value.
This game between the Kings and Suns features the highest total on the slate at 231.5 points. The Kings are double digit underdogs which is no surprise as the Suns have the best record in the league and rank in the top three of both offensive and defensive rating this season. The positive to this matchup is both teams rank in the top three of pace this season. The matchup is brutal, but the tempo of this game will be very high and Lyles is too cheap for his upside. Prioritize Lyles on FanDuel at his higher boom percentage.
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Boom: Trent Forrest: $3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel
29.6% DraftKings Boom/19.5% FanDuel Boom
In order to fit in Jokic and other studs, there needs to be a minimum-priced option and that is what we have with Trent Forrest. The Jazz are going to be without Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic tonight. Forrest is listed as questionable right now, so make sure to monitor his status before lock. If he is able to play, he will likely draw the start once again. Forrest has been out for four-straight games with a wrist injury. His status is very important on this slate, because we have him projected to play 30 minutes tonight.
Forrest is a cheap way to get exposure to the Jazz without two of their top guards. In the five games that Forrest has started this season, he is averaging 10.2 points and 22.7 DraftKings points per game. That is great value seeing as though he is priced at the minimum on both sites. Prioritize Forrest on DraftKings where he is projected to be the best value on the slate and he isn’t necessarily needed on FanDuel. Forrest also is coming in as the second-highest owned player in our ownership projections on DraftKings tonight.
Bust: Scottie Barnes: $8,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel
67.0% DraftKings Bust/62.1% FanDuel Bust
The worst pay-up option according to our Boom/Bust Tool is easily Scottie Barnes. The rookie has had an incredible season where he will either win the Rookie of the Year Award or finish second to Evan Mobley. Barnes is averaging 15.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. The Raptors have gotten Fred VanVleet back from injury, while OG Anunoby is still out. With VanVleet out, Barnes was able to post some really good assist numbers. His salary is rising despite the Raptors getting healthy and Barnes seeing a dip in production.
The problem with fading any Raptors players is they play a ridiculous amount of minutes. VanVleet and Siakam lead the league in minutes per game while Barnes ranks tied for eighth in minutes. Anunoby being out has increased the production of Siakam the most as he has had over 52 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The other knock on Barnes tonight is both the Raptors and 76ers rank in the bottom five of pace. Barnes has a “D” value on DraftKings and “C” on FanDuel in our NBA DFS Rankings. The price doesn’t fit anymore.
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Our most accurate NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Looking for more NBA daily fantasy advice today and the best NBA DFS tools? View our DraftKings ownership, our FanDuel NBA ownership projections and our Yahoo! NBA ownership. We also have Yahoo! ownership rankings, DraftKings ownership rankings and FanDuel ownership rankings for today's slate. Check out our DFS basketball rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA FanDuel projections.
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