Another five-game NBA slate, but there are not as much fireworks as we had last night. There are still two teams who are double digit favorites, but the rest of the games should be competitive, even though they are relatively low totals. This article will be led by the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play. Sunday’s in the NBA always provide random news, so make sure to stay up to date on Awesemo’s Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks
Boom: Jordan Clarkson: $5,000 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel
29.7% DraftKings Boom/25.3% FanDuel Boom
After a disappointing 34-point loss to the Pelicans, Jordan Clarkson and the Jazz look to bounce back on the road against the Thunder. The Jazz will have to do so without their point guard Mike Conley who is out tonight due to rest. In five games without Conley this season, Clarkson has increased his usage rate by 3.1% and has attempted 3.2 more field goals per game. He also plays nearly five more minutes per game when Conley is not in the lineup, even though he will still more than likely continue to come off the bench. Awesemo projects Clarkson to play 29.2 minutes tonight, but still be one of the best value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Despite their 20-43 record, the Thunder rank in the top 10 in both defensive rating and opponent’s field goal percentage. They also have plenty of injuries issues as they will be without their best perimeter defender in Luguentz Dort and fantastic rookie Josh Giddey. The Jazz are 13.5-point favorites with an implied total of 117 points. The blowout potential can be risky for Clarkson as he comes off the bench and likely won’t close if this game really gets out of hand. However, it is tough to get away from him in this spot. In our ownership projections, Clarkson is projected to be the highest-owned player on DraftKings and fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Boom: Pascal Siakam: $9,400 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel
26.4% DraftKings Boom/42.6% FanDuel Boom
The big news over the past week with the Raptors has been the status of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. Anunoby has already been ruled out, but we will need to monitor the status of VanVleet the closer we get to lock as he is questionable to play tonight. VanVleet has missed four-straight games as the Raptors are just 1-3 during that time. Pascal Siakam averages a team-high 29.4% usage rate with VanVleet and Anunoby off the floor this season. He is second in the league to VanVleet for most minutes played per game making him a very strong play. We know the minutes will be there if he can stay out of foul trouble against the Cavaliers frontcourt.
The downfall to this matchup is this total is by far the lowest on the slate at 210.5 points as the Raptors are five-point road underdogs. The Cavaliers rank fourth in defensive rating, allowing a league-best 103.3 points per game. Their interior defense is fantastic and they play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league. Despite being priced at $8,100, Awesemo projects Siakam to be the best value play on FanDuel tonight, which goes to show how good of a play he is. Siakam is also one of three players who has an A Grade and A Value in our NBA DFS Rankings. The matchup may be tough, but a ceiling is there. Prioritize Siakam on FanDuel at his cheap salary.
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Boom: Alec Burks: $5,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel
21.4% DraftKings Boom/29.2% FanDuel Boom
This article is made for players like Alec Burks who are extremely boom or bust. His last three games are a perfect example of the rollercoaster with Burks. Three games ago Burks played 34 minutes and only had 13 DraftKings points as he had six points, six rebounds, and failed to get an assist. However in his most recent game, Burks played 35 minutes and had 41.3 DraftKings points as he finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. The game in between he had a middling appearance. Which Alec Burks will show up? He is another option that should be prioritized on FanDuel as Awesemo projects Burks to be the second-best value play.
Similar to the Raptors and Cavaliers, this Knicks and Clippers game has a relatively low total at 219.5 points. The Knicks will continue their season without Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker as Burks will continue to draw the start. The positive with head coach Tom Thibodeau is the starters get a majority of the run despite how bad they may be playing. Burks has averaged 33.5 minutes per game despite only averaging 26.9 DraftKings points per game. There is a ceiling with Burks even though he will take us on a rollercoaster ride first. Burks is projected for 33.5 minutes tonight and comes in fifth in our ownership projections on FanDuel.
Bust: Nikola Jokic: $12,600 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel
51.0% DraftKings Bust/35.4% FanDuel Bust
Adding Nikola Jokic as a bust is always a risky proposition. Awesemo projects Jokic to score the most fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Let me start by saying I would much rather get to Jokic on FanDuel than DraftKings due to his salary differences. Since the All-Star Break, Jokic is only averaging 53.9 DraftKings points per game. Against the Trail Blazers he only had eight points and FIVE field goal attempts. Why? Well the addition of DeMarcus Cousins has certainly hampered his upside. In the last three games where they both played, Cousins has averaged a 31.8% usage rate compared to just 23.9% for Jokic.
It is only a matter of time until Jokic gets back to his incredibly high ceiling. However, the salary on DraftKings is still very difficult to get too, especially when he is coming off of an illness where he had to miss his last game. The next closest player is Ja Morant who is $10,500 which is over $2,000 cheaper. The matchup against the Pelicans also creates some difficulties. They have won four-straight games and they allow the seventh-least amount of points in the paint this season. There are too many red flags to pay this DraftKings salary.
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We also have Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings, DraftKings ownership rankings and FanDuel rankings for today's slate. Our NBA FanDuel projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. View our DraftKings NBA ownership, our Yahoo! ownership projections and our FanDuel ownership projections. Check out our daily fantasy basketball rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own basketball DFS projections. Looking for more NBA DFS advice FanDuel and the best NBA DFS advice?
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