There are huge Game 4’s on this NBA playoff slate, as the Golden State Warriors are the only team that can close out a series. A few Miami Heat players and Clint Capela are the only questionable names on this slate tonight. However, it is important to stay up to date on Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight. These plays below are driven by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool, narrowing down three boom and one bust play.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Nikola Jokic: $11,600 DK/$11,400 FD
60.5% DraftKings Boom/49.6% FanDuel Boom
Despite having potential two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets find themselves one game from elimination as they trail the Golden State Warriors 3-0 in this series. The Warriors are 4.5-point favorites and look nearly unstoppable with a fully healthy roster. Jokic leads the way on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the highest boom percentage in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t far behind on both sites, and though it would be great to pair both of them on this slate, it is nearly impossible with minimal value.
It is obvious that the Nuggets miss Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. This supporting cast for Jokic hasn’t been able to help enough in this series. Granted, the Warriors are playing out of their minds, making 17 3-pointers per game. Jokic is averaging 29.3 points, 13 rebounds and five assists in this series. Last game he recorded his eighth game out of his last 10 with over 70 DraftKings points. He is a one-man wrecking crew who is also the best value on both sites in Awesemo’s daily projections. Jokic is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Boom: Trae Young: $9,400 DK/$8,600 FD
43.8% DraftKings Boom/39.2% FanDuel Boom
Trae Young has really been struggling in this series against the Miami Heat. He is averaging only 19 points and 6.3 assists while shooting 33.7% from the field and 17.8% from behind the arc. His assist numbers are really low, but he may get his lob finisher back, as Clint Capela has been upgraded to questionable for tonight. That would help Young out a ton, especially when he gets in the paint. Despite Young’s struggles, he still has incredible upside. He is in the top four of boom percentage in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool on both sites.
The Atlanta Hawks escaped Game 3 with a big victory, and they can tie this series up at 2-2 tonight. They are still 2-point home underdogs, but this is a team who went to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Young can get cooking in a hurry and hasn’t had that blowup game yet, mainly due to the Heat defense, which was fourth in defensive rating and third-to-last in pace this season. Prioritize Young on FanDuel, where he is leading the slate in Awesemo’s ownership projections at his cheap salary. That explosion game is coming.
Boom: Jae Crowder: $4,700 DK/$4,800 FD
19.1% DraftKings Boom/16.3% FanDuel Boom
Value is very difficult to find on this four-game slate, but Jae Crowder seems to be drawing the most attention. He is projected for the highest ownership on DraftKings, as the Phoenix Suns are still without Devin Booker. Looking at Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, it is clear there is not a value option that is popping on this slate. That may lead to a more balanced approach tonight. Crowder played a series-high 34 minutes in the first full game without Booker last time out and had his second straight game with 21 or more DraftKings points.
The Suns are up 2-1 in this series, and they are 2.5-point road favorites against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. A victory tonight and they should be able to close out this series in five games. Crowder does provide a little upside, especially considering he has yet to hit a 3-pointer all series. He is 0-for-14 from downtown and has only shot 19.4% from the field in their three games against the Pelicans. Over 65% of Crowder’s field goal attempts came from behind the arc this season. If he gets hot, Crowder can pay off this salary with ease.
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Bust: Stephen Curry: $8,700 DK/$9,200 FD
58.0% DraftKings Bust/75.3% FanDuel Bust
Looking at Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and seeing Stephen Curry as this high of a bust candidate is a bit shocking. However, diving into the numbers it makes sense, even at his relatively cheap salary. Curry is still working his way back from an ankle injury, and he played a series-high 31 minutes in his last game. This series could be over tonight, but it is a matter of when, not if for the Golden State Warriors. Awesemo projects Curry for 30.1 minutes tonight, and he is one of the worst values on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Despite having a B Grade in Awesemo’s Fantasy Basketball rankings, Curry has a D Value, which is another sign that he is in a tough spot to pay-off his salary tonight. Curry is still scoring really well in this series, as he is averaging 25.7 points per game while shooting 54% from the field and making at least three 3-pointers in each game. His peripherals have taken a hit playing alongside a healthy Warriors team. With this series in good hands, it is tough to see the Warriors extending Curry’s minutes in this game tonight.
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Looking for more NBA daily fantasy advice today and the best NBA DFS advice? We also have Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings, FanDuel NBA ownership rankings and DraftKings NBA ownership rankings for today's slate. Check out our daily fantasy sports rankings NBA for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA projections DraftKings. Our NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. View our Yahoo! NBA ownership, our FanDuel ownership projections and our DraftKings NBA ownership projections.
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