On the menu for Thursday night is a five-game NBA slate. Even with only 10 clubs competing, this slate is filled with appealing value plays and studs. Also, four of these contests carry totals over 220 points, so fans can safely expect some huge DFS scores. As always, be sure to be watching the Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page closely for updates on each team before making NBA picks today. Below are some NBA daily fantasy basketball picks that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Jrue Holiday: $8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel
53% DraftKings Boom/51% FanDuel Boom
Tonight, both Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) and Khris Middleton (wrist) have been ruled out for the Bucks. Holiday has made three starts without these two All-Stars this season and has been a stud in those contests, scoring 54 DraftKings points per game, with no efforts less than 50 DraftKings points. Overall, with Antetokounmpo and Middleton off the floor this season, Holiday sees some jaw-dropping changes to his role. His usage skyrockets 13.3 percentage points to 37.2% and his assist rate nearly doubles to a whopping 49.3%. Both of these rates are team-highs for this situation and Holiday supplies an outstanding 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with an elevated workload, in a sample size of 384 minutes.
The point guard will be at home tonight, going against a Wizards’ defense that ranks 26th in efficiency. Even with two of their top three players missing, the Bucks carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate in this beautiful matchup (119 points). Holiday’s ceiling ranks second only to Nikola Jokic in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and he is a must-play for all formats.
Boom: Pat Connaughton: $4,100 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel
10% DraftKings Boom/4% FanDuel Boom
Antetokounmpo and Middleton’s absences also open the door for Connaughton to see an expanded role, likely as a member of the Bucks starting five. He has been available three times this season with Holiday active, and both Antetokounmpo and Middleton inactive. On those occasions, Connaughton entered Milwaukee’s first unit and was very effective, supplying 28 DraftKings points in 35.4 minutes per game. When Antetokounmpo and Middleton have been off the court this season, Connaughton has seen a 2.8-percentage-point boost to his usage rate, lifting him to 0.9 DraftKings points per minute.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Connaughton is underpriced for this situation and is a mouthwatering target for large tournaments, with Awesemo NBA projections having the wing for single-digit ownership on both sites.
Boom: Zach LaVine: $7,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel
45% DraftKings Boom/55% FanDuel Boom
Roster LaVine with full confidence tonight with DeMar DeRozan (adductor) out of the lineup. In the four games DeRozan has missed this season, LaVine has amassed 47.3 DraftKings points per game. In the 715 minutes he has played with DeRozan off the floor, LaVine has received a team-best 32.7% usage rate, which is a 4.2 percentage point upgrade from his season average. Additionally, LaVine’s assist rate jumps 5.4 percentage points to 26.7%, which is also a team-high for this situation. This translates into 1.3 DraftKings points per minute for the shooting guard and LaVine finds himself in a great environment tonight against the Pelicans. This matchup’s total is up to 223.5 points and New Orleans is only a 3.5-point favorite, which is the smallest spread of this five-game slate.
In Awesemo’s NBA Fantasy Boom/Bust Tool, LaVine brings a ceiling north of 50 fantasy points tonight and is rating as a top-three option on the slate in terms of boom score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom: Jaren Jackson Jr.: $6,900 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel
18% DraftKings Boom/35% FanDuel Boom
Jackson is way underpriced for his upside tonight. The Grizzlies will be hosting the Pacers, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency. More importantly, Memphis will be without Ja Morant (knee), Dillon Brooks (rest) and Brandon Clarke (hip). Take these three players off the court this season and Jackson’s usage rises 8.7 percentage points to a team-high 34.7%. With this massive usage, Jackson collects 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, and facing this soft Indiana defense, no team presents a higher implied team total than the Grizzlies on Thursday (123.25 points).
Furthermore, this Pacers’ defense is most susceptible inside, giving up the fifth-most points in the paint, which obviously bodes extremely well for Jackson. This season, 60% of the forward’s attempts have come in the paint. Jackson has a ceiling near 50 fantasy points tonight and is a must-have for GPPs.
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