On tap for Tuesday is a five-game NBA slate. As always, be sure to be watching the Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page closely for updates on each team before making NBA picks today. Most notably, keep an eye on Zach LaVine (questionable, rest). The Bulls are going against a Wizards’ defense that ranks 25th in efficiency and LaVine’s absence would put Coby White in play for all formats. For the nine games the guard has been available sans LaVine this season, White has started on every occasion and amassed 34.4 DraftKings points per game. Below are some NBA daily fantasy basketball picks that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Kristaps Porzingis: $8,500 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel
27% DraftKings Boom/23% FanDuel Boom
Combine Kyle Kuzma’s (knee) absence with Porzingis no longer seeing a hard minutes limit, and Porzingis has been exceptional as of late, providing 49 DraftKings points per game in his last four starts. He has seen at least 30 minutes in each of these past four games and should continue to see big minutes tonight against the Bulls. Kuzma will miss his sixth straight game and this game is expected to be competitive throughout, with Chicago only favored by 3.5 points. In the 193 minutes Porzingis has played with Kuzma off the court since being traded to Washington, he has produced an elite 1.5 DraftKings points per minute behind a team-high 31.7% usage rate.
Facing this Chicago defense that ranks 22nd in efficiency, Porzingis brings a ceiling near 50 fantasy points in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and is simply too cheap for this type of upside. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is rating as the best value above $8,000 in Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections.
Boom: Marvin Bagley: $5,600 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel
32% DraftKings Boom/17% FanDuel Boom
Jerami Grant (calf) has been shut down for the season, opening the door for Bagley to thrive as the Pistons starting power forward. Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Bagley has played three games without Grant. Bagley was promoted to the starting five in all three of these games and excelled with the role, scoring 36.5 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game. Take Grant off the floor and Bagley posts a 23.8% usage rate, which ranks second for the Pistons in this situation, only trailing Cade Cunningham. Overall, Bagley is contributing 1.04 DraftKings points per minute sans Grant in a sample size of 283 minutes.
Bagley should draw another start in place of Grant tonight and handle over 30 minutes against the Nets. While the Pistons are 14-point underdogs in this game, Brooklyn is a friendly matchup to attack, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency. This game carries the highest total on the slate at 234 points. Bagley is averaging 31 DraftKings points in his 15 games with at least 25 minutes this season, and while he is a strong consideration on both sites, he is a value to prioritize at only $5,600 on DraftKings. At this affordable price tag, Bagley is rating as a top-five value on the slate in Awesemo’s NBA Daily Fantasy projections.
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Boom: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $11,700 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel
26% DraftKings Boom/28% FanDuel Boom
Tonight’s matchup between the Bucks and 76ers is huge for seeding purposes with the playoffs quickly approaching. These two clubs hold the same record and are only game behind Miami for the No. 1 seed in the East. Tuesday’s matchup is the final time the Bucks and Sixers will go head-to-head this season and after splitting the first two matchups, tonight will decide who owns the tiebreaker between the teams, which is obviously extremely important with less than two weeks left in the regular season. This makes both Joel Embiid and Antetokounmpo excellent targets, and having exposure to both is important if building multiple lineups. However, if forced to choose one, Antetokounmpo is the preferred option.
Giannis was incredible in the first two meetings of the season between these two contenders, generating 65.4 DraftKings points per game. Unsurprisingly, tonight’s game is expected to be a nail biter, with the Sixers only 1.5-point favorites. Furthermore, this game is expected to produce a ton of points, holding the second-highest total on the slate at 232 points. In a sample size of 22 games, Antetokounmpo has destroyed his opponents for 61.4 DraftKings points per game in totals of 230 points or greater this season. He is a strong bet to lead this short slate in fantasy points scored in this playoff-like atmosphere.
Bust: James Harden: $10,200 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel
44% DraftKings Bust/50% FanDuel Bust
Opposite of Antetokounmpo, Harden is standing out as the worst stud to pay up for tonight. Harden has underachieved as fantasy asset since joining the 76ers, recording less than 50 DraftKings points in eight of his first 14 starts with the club. Playing alongside Embiid, Harden has only obtained a 24.9% usage rate, which is a dramatic drop off from the 28.1% usage rate he was receiving in Brooklyn before the blockbuster trade to Philadelphia.
Tonight’s matchup with the Bucks is a brutal spot for Harden. He should see plenty of Jrue Holiday, who is one of the premier defensive guards in the NBA. While these results came when Harden was still with the Nets, he has struggled mightily against Milwaukee this season, averaging only 43 DraftKings points per game in two matchups. Expecting Harden to outproduce his lucrative price tags is unreasonable tonight, and Awesemo forecasts him for around 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him an easy fade.
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View our FanDuel NBA ownership projections, our Yahoo! ownership projections and our DraftKings ownership projections. Looking for more free NBA DFS advice today and the best NBA DFS tools? Our best NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. We also have DraftKings NBA ownership rankings, Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings and FanDuel NBA rankings for today's slate. Check out our DFS basketball rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA DFS projections FanDuel.
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