NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel 3/23

Wednesday night delivers a huge 11-game NBA slate, including five totals over 230 points. As always, be sure to be watching the Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page closely for updates on each team before making NBA picks today. Below are some NBA daily fantasy basketball picks that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today

Boom: Spencer Dinwiddie: $6,400 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel

53% DraftKings Boom/44% FanDuel Boom

Luka Doncic (ankle) will be inactive tonight, making Dinwiddie a must play against the Rockets. In the one game Dinwiddie has played without Doncic since joining the Mavericks last month, Dinwiddie replaced Doncic in the starting five and went off for 45.5 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes against the Kings. With Doncic off the court, Dinwiddie sees a dramatic change to his role. His usage skyrockets 10.8 percentage points to a team-high 33.1% and his assist rate increases 8.8 percentage points to 29.8%. Overall, Dinwiddie produces 1.4 DraftKings points per minute sans Doncic, in a sample size of 157 minutes.

On top of the incredible workload Dinwiddie will handle tonight, he could not ask for a better matchup. Houston is the worst defense in the league based on efficiency. Plus, they rank fourth in pace, compared to the Mavericks, who rank dead last. This type of pace increase is obviously extremely optimal for a point guard like Dinwiddie, and he brings a ceiling near 50 fantasy points in Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom Bust Tool, which is outstanding relative to his affordable price tags.

With the Awesemo NBA projections and expert tools loving Dinwiddie, he was also the first player in fellow Awesemo NBA DFS expert Tyler Schmidt’s NBA DFS Picks, Grades & Values article today.

Boom: Tyus Jones: $4,600 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel

54% DraftKings Boom/62% FanDuel Boom

Jones is another elite value play that simply cannot be ignored tonight. Ja Morant (back) has been ruled out, marking his 17th absence of the season. In the first 16 games without Morant, Jones started in place of Morant on every occasion and is averaging 28.3 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes per game with the role. Mostly attributed to a team-high 29.9% assist rate, Jones supplies one DraftKings point per minute with Morant off the floor, in a sample size of 1,131 minutes. To put the icing on the cake, Jones will be competing in the highest total of this 11-game slate against the Nets (238 points). Brooklyn ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and even with Morant missing, the Grizzlies presents the seventh-highest implied team total on the board at 118.25 points.

In this strong setting, Jones’ NBA player prop line is set at 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists on BetMGM, which equates to 25.75 fantasy points before defensive stats and bonuses are credited. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, this is already over five-times value for Jones at his current price tags. As a top-three value on the slate in Awesemo’s NBA daily fantasy projections for both sites, Jones is a core play for all formats.

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Boom: R.J. Barrett: $7,900 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel

31% DraftKings Boom/36% FanDuel Boom

With Julius Randle (quad) missing his first game of the season last night, Barrett thrived as the Knicks’ top option, erupting for 54.3 DraftKings NBA Fantasy points against the Hawks. He led New York with a whopping 41 minutes and should receive another huge workload tonight, with Randle listed as doubtful and expected to remain sidelined. Take Randle off the court this season and Barrett’s usage rises 6.2 percentage points to a team-high 33.4%. His assist rate also sees a significant 5.7 percentage point upgrade to 21.4%.

Barrett is averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for the 404 minutes he has played with Randle off the court this season, and after carving up the Hawks last night, Barrett gets another excellent matchup against the Hornets on Wednesday. This season, Charlotte ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency and third in pace. Barrett should score a minimum of 40 fantasy points in this spot and is a very valuable asset for this slate, with small forward eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Boom: LeBron James: $11,600 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel

~~19% DraftKings Boom/24% FanDuel Boom~~

James put on a show Monday night, exposing a stout Cavaliers’ defense for a triple-double worth 76.8 DraftKings points. In his last 10 starts, James has now surpassed 60 DraftKings points six times. Ever since Anthony Davis (out, foot) got hurt back in mid-February, James has posted a 34.2% usage rate and 27.5% assist percentage, resulting in 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. The Lakers will be hosting the 76ers tonight and while Philadelphia ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, this game is expected to be very high scoring, with a total of 230.5 points.

In the 10 games that have presented a total of at least 225 points since Davis went down with the foot injury, James has generated 60.5 DraftKings points per game. He brings the best ceiling of the night in this marquee matchup and while James is a terrific spend on both sites, he is particularly appealing on DraftKings. With most DFS players gravitating towards Joel Embiid in this same game, Awesemo’s NBA DFS ownership projections have James for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, making him the perfect pivot play.

Update: James has been ruled out for Wednesday night, opening the door for Russell Westbrook to see a huge role. The guard is amassing 43 DraftKings points per game for the two starts he has made without both James and Davis this season. Furthermore, Westbrook’s usage jumps 7.8 percentage points to a team-best 34.8% with those two stars off the floor, lifting him to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute, in a sample size of 520 minutes. At less than $9,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and with Awesemo forecasting Westbrook for minimal ownership on both sites, the former MVP has to be considered for GPPs.

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