In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | March 25
NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Dwight Howard vs. Lakers: $5,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel
52.2% DraftKings Boom/62.6% FanDuel Boom
Howard is a terrific per-minute fantasy producer. The issue as of late is that he hasn’t always played big minutes. When Joel Embiid first got injured, Howard playing big minutes seemed inevitable but then he ended up coming off the bench and playing in a timeshare with Tony Bradley. This is not an issue for tonight or moving forward. The 76ers traded Bradley at the deadline as part of a move to land George Hill. As a result, Howard is in line to soak up most of the center minutes until Embiid is healthy again.
Tyrese Haliburton vs. Warriors: $6,000 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel
30.4% DraftKings Boom/49.6% FanDuel Boom
For the second consecutive day, Haliburton rates out extremely well in the Boom vs. Bust tool. Last night went well, and this looks like another strong slate to fire up the Kings’ rookie. He recently moved into the Kings’ starting lineup, and now that he doesn’t have a minutes restriction, his production is trending up. Haliburton played 36 minutes in each of the last two games while scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in those contests. Since Marvin Bagley is out indefinitely, Sacramento is playing more small ball, and Haliburton is benefiting the most and potentially moving himself into Rookie of The Year consideration.
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Jordan Poole vs. Kings: $6,100 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel
30.2% DraftKings Boom/30.8% FanDuel Boom
Until Stephen Curry returns, Poole is going to do the heavy lifting for the Warriors at point guard. In the last three games without Curry, Poole started at the point in all of them and is producing good results. Poole is averaging 37 minutes per game and scoring 34 DraftKings points per night in those minutes. For the season he averages over a fantasy point per minute, so it isn’t shocking that he’s putting up these kind of fantasy numbers while playing extended minutes. Poole’s price is up, but he should still exceed his salary expectations when getting so much time and scoring more than a fantasy point per minute.
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NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Marcus Morris vs. Spurs: $4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel
78.7% DraftKings Bust/75.2% FanDuel Bust
Serge Ibaka remains out for the Clippers, and even though Morris is playing well in the starting lineup, his salary is a bit too high for me. This small slate is starting to open up value because of the trade deadline, which makes it hard for me to prioritize Morris, who I have projected for fewer than 25 fantasy points. He has scored under 30 fantasy points in each of his last five starts, so it’s hard to believe that there is much upside here.
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