In NBA DFS it is not as simple as rostering who the best play is. It’s imperative to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, it provides odds to help navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting, according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Jayson Tatum vs. Suns: $10,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel
12.4% DraftKings Boom/27.7% FanDuel Boom
At first glance, this matchup looks awful for the Celtics and Tatum. The Suns are one of the toughest matchups possible for DFS, but they are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back and are on the middle of a brutal road trip. Fatigue could make this matchup not as difficult for Tatum as it looks on paper. In addition, he’s getting a usage bump since Jaylen Brown is doubtful to play with a shoulder injury. When Brown is off the court, Tatum leads Boston with a 35.3% usage rate, and he scores 1.4 fantasy points per minute. Kemba Walker also sees a usage boost, which makes him a viable play.
Dejounte Murray vs. Pistons: $7,200 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel
14.3% DraftKings Boom/26.9% FanDuel Boom
It is the point in the season where place in the standings becomes important for production. This isn’t to say that players score more fantasy points because they try harder, but teams that need wins will play core players more minutes than normal. This is the category the Spurs fall into. They are currently 10th in the Western Conference standings and desperate for wins to have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. For this reason, guys like Murray, Derrick White and DeMar DeRozan should play a couple extra minutes per game down the stretch of the season, which should mean more fantasy output.
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Andre Drummond vs. Mavericks: $7,300 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel
23.7% DraftKings Boom/38.2% FanDuel Boom
It is unclear what will happen to Drummond’s minutes when Anthony Davis is unrestricted, although this isn’t an issue for tonight. Drummond is playing big minutes as of late, and Davis hasn’t played in a game since early February. He is only expected to play around 15 minutes tonight. With Marc Gasol questionable to play, Drummond’s playing time appears relatively safe in a plus matchup against the Mavericks. He is averaging 29.3 minutes in the Lakers’ last two games, and Drummond remains an excellent per-minute fantasy producer, even though the luster of him and his ability to contribute to an NBA team is starting to wear off.
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Devonte’ Graham vs. Bulls: $6,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel
68.7% DraftKings Bust/58.4% FanDuel Bust
Not only does Graham have a high chance of busting tonight, he is fairly popular on the slate. He is projected for about double the ownership of his odds of landing in the optimal lineup. Even with both LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward out, Graham hasn’t taken much of a stride forward in terms of fantasy production. He has gone nine games in a row without scoring over 35 DraftKings points, so it’s hard to see much upside in rostering him when he’s popular and his price is fair relative to recent performances.
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