In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | March 2
NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Nikola Jokic vs. Bucks: $11,000/$10,800
30.2% DraftKings Boom/37% FanDuel Boom
Jokic added to his MVP resume yesterday with one of his best outings of the season. He put up a triple-double against the Bulls and scored 77 DraftKings to get the Nuggets a win in a close game. Even though this is a back-to-back, I expect Jokic to play big minutes. This is a tough matchup playing against the Bucks, and Denver is hapless when Jokic isn’t on the court. This team scores 14.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. The Nuggets stand almost no chance against the Bucks unless Jokic plays big minutes and has a great game.
Nerlens Noel vs. Spurs: $5,500/$5,200
22.4% DraftKings Boom/41.1% FanDuel Boom
Noel started when Mitchell Robinson first got hurt, but the center minutes were split between he and Taj Gibson. Noel was a decent play although his upside was capped. This is no longer the case since Gibson is injured. Without Gibson in the last two games, Noel is averaging over 40 minutes. It’s hard to ignore this kind of workload, and I don’t think it’s going away anytime soon. That is not to say that we should expect over 40 minutes, but even playing 35 minutes would make Noel one of the better plays on the slate. We know that Tom Thibodeau isn’t shy about playing starters massive minutes when he’s thin on depth.
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Paul George vs. Celtics: $8,400/$7,900
17.7% DraftKings Boom/33.4% FanDuel Boom
After a subpar week of fantasy performances, George is priced close to his lowest salary of the season on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t think the drop in price is justified because it’s largely a results of blowouts. Three of the Clippers’ last four games were decided by wide points totals. Blowouts with margins of 20, 28 and 19 points limited the number of minutes that George played. He played 38 minutes in a close game against the Bucks, so there isn’t any real cause for concern with his playing time. His price should go back up shortly.
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Jayson Tatum vs. Clippers: $9,400/$9,300
73.8% DraftKings Bust/58.5% FanDuel Bust
For now, I am assuming that Jaylen Brown will play. He is listed as questionable to play after missing the Celtics’ last game because of knee soreness. Assuming he’s in, this would mark one of the rare games this season that Boston will have Tatum, Brown and Kemba Walker all healthy in the same game. This would take some shot attempts and playmaking duties away from Tatum, who is close to his most expensive salary of the season. We also have to factor that this is a tough matchup since Tatum will draw defense from George and Kawhi Leonard.
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