He’s ba-ack! C.J. McCollum is finally off the injury report and will suit up for the Portland Trail Blazers when they face the New Orleans Pelicans. McCollum will provide the team a boost on offense that could push them closer to the top of the Western Conference. If you’re looking for an edge on tonight’s NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions for the matchup.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Game Info
New Orleans Pelicans (17-22) at Portland Trail Blazers (22-16)
Date:Â Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue:Â Moda Center — Portland, Ore.
Coverage: TNT
The Trail Blazers are on a 4-6 slump over their last 10 games, but they have played competitive ball with McCollum sidelined for so long. In contrast, the Pelicans are in relatively good health but still sit outside of the top eight. New Orleans is 11th in the West far out of the playoff hunt. A win tonight would be a good sign moving forward, trying to inch closer to the playoffs.
[MARCHMADNESS]
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Spread Trends and Prediction: Pelicans +2
The trends don’t point to a ton of value here. The Trail Blazers have been the better team against the spread, as their 19-19 ATS record is much more impressive than the Pelicans’ 17-22 ATS record. However, Portland is just 7-11 ATS at home. New Orleans hasn’t been great on the road, either, at 7-10 ATS.
Ultimately, it’s health and rest that points to a slight edge for the Pelicans. Both teams last played on Sunday, and the Pelicans’ 10-13 ATS record on equal rest is a healthy margin better than the Trail Blazers’ 7-12 ATS record in the same situation.
I use an NBA betting model to make a prediction for each game, and it favors the Pelicans by a 0.5-point margin. It comes to that conclusion because of Portland’s poor defensive play of late, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over the last three games. Meanwhile, New Orleans ranks eighth-best.
The trends and my model point to a very slight edge on New Orleans. I don’t love the pick, especially because Portland won its last meeting by exactly two points. It’s not the worst play on an otherwise ugly slate. Let’s just hope that McCollum gets eased back into Portland’s lineup.
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction: Over 238
I am a simple man. I see the Pelicans, I take the over- they boast the NBA’s highest over percentage (71.8%). Although that number falls to 58.8% when they play on the road, it still ranks among the NBA’s highest. The Trail Blazers over percentage (55.3%) isn’t far behind, and it rises slightly to 55.6% when they play at home.
The fact that these teams are on equal rest also points to value on the over. New Orleans’ over percentage sits at 69.6% in such situations, and Portland’s jumps to 68.4%.
Unfortunately, my NBA betting model disagrees with the trends. It projects these teams to combine for just 230.4 points, in part because these teams play surprisingly slow. Portland ranks 23rd in possessions per game, and New Orleans ranks 17th.
That said, I’ll side with the trends anyway. Riding the over when the Pelicans take the court has been a safe play all season, and these teams combined for 250 points the last time they met. With McCollum back for the Blazers, that number could tick up even higher.
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Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends and my model point to an edge on the Pelicans here. Sure, they’ve struggled against the spread this season, but Portland hasn’t looked great at home. You can buy the Pelicans as 2-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill, and you can also burn a half-point for better juice at BetMGM or PointsBet (-105). Should you disagree and favor the Pelicans during McCollum’s first game back, you can get the Trail Blazers as 1.5-point favorites at BetMGM or PointsBet. You can also add a half-point for better juice at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook. However. line movement can happen, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal!
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I favor the over tonight, and the wide range of totals points to a lot of value at William Hill. Their total has the second-best juice despite being set at the lowest available figure! Should you disagree and favor the under, you can buy the highest-set total at BetMGM. The slight juice advantage at SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t worth burning a half-point. As always, you can find the most recent lines over at OddsShopper.
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