The Charlotte Hornets looked awful on the road last night against the Denver Nuggets, losing by the score of 129-104. Tonight, the Hornets will have the unfortunate duty of taking on the Los Angeles Lakers. This is a big game for the Lakers, who can creep up in the standings to the No. 2 seed, currently occupied by the Phoenix Suns, if things shake out the right way. This should be a fun matchup of LeBron James vs. LaMelo Ball, so here are the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NBA betting market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Hornets vs. Lakers
Hornets vs. Lakers Game Info
Charlotte Hornets (20-19) at Los Angeles Lakers (27-13)
Date:Â Thursday, Mar. 18, 2021
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
Venue:Â STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, CA
Coverage: NBATV
The Hornets are on the back end of a back-to-back, but their starters are relatively fresh after getting pulled from last night’s blowout loss. No Hornets player saw the court for more than 30 minutes, with Terry Rozier playing the most (27). With that being said, the Lakers do have the rest advantage in their back pocket for this matchup.
[MARCHMADNESS]
Hornets vs. Lakers Spread Trends and Prediction: Hornets +7
I liked the Hornets against the spread last night, and I’ll double-down on them this evening. They are the NBA’s eighth-best team against the spread, at 21-17-1 ATS, while the Lakers are 14th with a 20-20 ATS record.
The Hornets are an impressive 12-6 ATS after a loss and 5-3 ATS when playing without rest. Meanwhile, the Lakers have struggled at home this year, going 9-12 ATS at STAPLES Center. It’s worth noting that the Lakers have covered both of their home games since the All-Star Break (and 4-1 ATS over their last five home games), but I’ll side with the Hornets anyway.
My NBA betting model sides with Charlotte, favoring LA by a slim 5.8-point margin. That’ll give us just enough edge on the Hornets against the spread.
Hornets vs. Lakers Total Trends and Prediction: Over TKTK
One trend points to a boatload of value on the over. The Hornets have a jaw-dropping over percentage of 81.2% when they play as road underdogs, the highest such rate in the NBA among teams with at least three games in that situation.
The other trends support that lean- although, much less dramatically. Los Angeles has an over percentage of 52.4% when they play at home while the Hornets have an over percentage of 55.3% on the year- that jumps to 62.5% playing without a day of rest.
What does my NBA betting model think? It projects these teams to total 220.6 points, a nose below this total. However, the adjustment it makes for rest assumes that Charlotte will regress because of a heavy workload last night, but their starters will enter this one relatively fresh.
I’m willing to ignore the model and play the over.
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Hornets vs. Lakers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I’ll ride the Hornets here and play them as 7-point underdogs. You can find the best juice (-109) on Charlotte as SugarHouse, and if that book isn’t available in your state, most other books have a similar line (-110). The same goes if you want to buy the Lakers as 7-point favorites; SugarHouse has the best juice (-109) but the other books aren’t far behind (-110). As always, you can keep track of changes as tip-off approaches through OddsShopper.
Hornets vs. Lakers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I favor the over tonight, and you can find the lowest-set total with the best juice at SugarHouse and BetMGM (-110). Should you disagree with my lean and favor the under, head over to PointsBet for the highest-set total with the best juice (-105). These lines may move as the game gets closer, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
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