🎲 Rockets vs. Kings: NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction | Tonight 3/11

With the NBA back in action after the All-Star Break, we’ve got a robust 11-game slate on tap for tonight. The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings will play one of three games tipping off at 10 p.m. EST in what should be a high-scoring battle between two struggling franchises. Here are the key betting trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NBA betting market.

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Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Rockets vs. Kings

Rockets vs. Kings Game Info

Houston Rockets (11-23) at Sacramento Kings (14-22)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 11, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center — Sacramento, Calif. 

After disappointing starts to their respective seasons, these teams sit firmly at the bottom of the Western Conference. While the squads are a healthy margin ahead of the last-place Minnesota Timberwolves, they’re also far out of 10th place, too. The Rockets haven’t even won a game since Feb. 4, which was also the last time Christian Wood took the court. In contrast, the Kings are 2-2 over their last four. Although, those wins came against the Pistons and the Lakers on a night where LeBron James was out.

Injuries will be a factor tonight, as the Rockets remain without Wood and won’t have Danuel House Jr. or David Nwaba. Eric Gordon and John Wall are both questionable, too, which is bad news for Houston’s offense.


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Rockets vs. Kings Spread Trends and Prediction: Kings -5.5

Unsurprisingly, these are two of the NBA’s worst teams against the spread. The Kings rank fourth-worst with a 15-21 ATS record while the Rockets rank dead last with an 11-23 ATS record. Yes, that means that Sacramento has covered less than a third of its games.

Despite their overwhelmingly poor play against the spread, the Rockets have been much better on the road than at home. They’re 8-11 ATS on the road and 7-7 ATS as road underdogs. In contrast, the Kings have been awful against the spread when playing in Sacramento. Their 6-14 ATS record at home trails only Houston.

The trends don’t point to a clear edge tonight. In fact, they mostly suggest that you should stay away from his game, as both teams struggle to cover. That said, my NBA betting model points to an edge on Sacramento. It favors the Kings by a 7.6-point margin, far greater than the posted spreads, because of how incredibly inefficient the Rockets have been on offense. They rank second-worst over the league’s last three games, ahead of only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Since the trends aren’t super clear, I’ll listen to my model and take the Kings as home favorites. I don’t expect Houston to get its first win in over a month, and this spread doesn’t give them that much breathing room — especially since Gordon and Wall are both banged-up.

Rockets vs. Kings Total Trends and Prediction: Over 230.5

I would much rather play the spread than the total. The trends are quite split on this game: the Kings have the second-highest over percentage (69.4%), but the Rockets have the third-lowest (39.4%). Sacramento’s number jumps to 75% when they play at home, too. So does Houston’s, interestingly, and it sits at 57.9% when the Rockets play on the road.

So with the trends favoring the over, what does my model think? It predicts these teams to combine for 225.4 points, well below the posted totals, which suggests an edge on the under.

Ultimately, I’ll side with the trends over my model — but only if one of Gordon or Wall suit up. Sacramento has an explosive enough offense to carry these teams past the total with a minimal contribution from the Rockets, but Houston will need at least one of those players to hit that minimum threshold.

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Rockets vs. Kings NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

Isaiah Sirois uses Awesemo's OddsShopper tool to identify the best NBA betting picks and odds for tonight's game between the Rockets and Kings.

The trends aren’t very clear, but my model favors the Kings tonight, and I’ll play them against the spread. You can get them as 5.5-point favorites with the best juice at BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hilll (-110), or you can add a half-point for better juice at FanDuel Sportsbook (-106). Should you disagree with my lean, you can get the Rockets as 6-point underdogs at FanDuel. Make sure to head over to OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal!

Rockets vs. Kings NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping

Isaiah Sirois uses Awesemo's OddsShopper tool to identify the best NBA betting picks and odds for tonight's game between the Rockets and Kings.

The trends point to value on the over, but my model favors the under. I’m siding with the over here, and you can find the lowest-set total at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also add a half-point for the best juice at FanDuel Sportsbook. Should you favor the under, BetMGM has the highest-set total, and I wouldn’t burn the 1.5 points necessary for better juice. You can follow all line movement yourself by taking a look at OddsShopper before tip-off.


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Author
Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.

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