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I’m going to give you the three props I’ve got my eye on for you to utilize in your three-, four- and five-point confidence slots on Thursday’s two-game NBA slate.
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Nikola Jokic — OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made
Jokic 3-point props treated us well in the first round, and we’re going to ride that wave into the second round against the Clippers. Jokic has made at least two 3-pointers in six of the Nuggets’ seven playoff games so far, but past results are not always indicative of future returns. That’s where the attempts come in handy. Jokic attempted over 5.5 3’s per game in that series, with two games of double-digit attempts. Similar to Rudy Gobert, I don’t expect Ivica Zubac to be overly-effective coming out to the perimeter to contest Jokic’s shot if he wants it, resulting in what should be some very good looks from distance for Jokic. I love this No House Advantage prop, and I love the over.
Serge Ibaka — OVER 0.5 Blocks
All you need is one block from Ibaka. What could possibly go wrong? In all seriousness, a single defensive event on a basketball court can be random happenstance, but the reason I’m here for this prop is the minutes: 26 and 27 in the first two games against the Celtics, up from his normal allocation in the low 20s. Ibaka’s proven to be one of the more reliable scoring options for the Raptors in the bubble, which has put him in a position for more court time. And more court time for a known shot blocker makes this a prop I’m happy to fire in the four- or five-point confidence slots on No House Advantage.
Marcus Morris — OVER 4.5 Rebounds
Shading on the side of overs isn’t something I want to get in the habit of doing long-term, but when you see value in a prop, who cares. Morris has been somewhat of a clown show in the playoffs thus far, which might get people off of any plays with his name attached. But looking at the matchups the Nuggets will present for the Clippers, Morris should get his normal 30-32 minutes of run at the four. This is important since Jokic generally starts the offense around the top of the key for the Nuggets, which should pull Zubac out to the perimeter and create ample defensive rebounding opportunities for Morris. He’s yet to fail on this prop yet in the playoffs (with the exception of Game 6 where he was ejected), and I think he will easily eclipse the 4.5 mark again today.
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