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I’m going to give you the three props I’ve got my eye on for you to utilize in your three-, four- and five-point confidence slots on Friday’s two-game NBA slate.
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Kyle Kuzma — UNDER 12.5 Points
Of all the teams in all the land, somehow the Rockets have the top-ranked defensive unit since entering the bubble. Kuzma would normally stick out as the only other scoring threat outside of the Lakers’ superstar duo, but that hasn’t been the case in these playoffs. He’s been held to single-digit scoring in three of five games so far, and even more alarming is the minutes decline into the low- to mid-20’s. Add in Robert Covington and Danuel House Jr. defense, and this prop sticks out as one of my favorites on the board today.
Russell Westbrook — OVER 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Early on in the bubble, we saw enough dynamic games from Westbrook that this sort of line would be laughable a month ago. A quad injury has changed that dynamic, as Westbrook was slow out of the gates upon returning in the middle of the Oklahoma City series. We’ve seen a steady increase in minutes for Westbrook from 24 to 27 to 34 minutes in his three games being active these playoffs, and in a spot where we could see close his normal allotment in the upper 30s, the production should follow. The Lakers defense also tends to give up more fantasy points to point guards relative to other positions, so while they might hone in on shutting down James Harden, I think there will be plenty of opportunity for Westbrook’s regular season 35.4% usage rate to come back into play. Expect a big fantasy output from the former triple-double machine here, and slam the over on his entire box score with this NHA prop.
Giannis Antetokounmpo — UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made
Let’s start off with the concern. I’m sure Miami would be more than happy to let Giannis chuck as many 3’s as his heart desires. If he’s left wide open enough times, Giannis has shown a propensity to chuck, and even at a subpar 31.1 percentage on the year, he’s capable enough of hitting two and busting this prop. But now to the good stuff; in five games against Miami this year, he’s an ugly 2-for-19 from 3 and is coming off a Game 2 where he attempted just one. Jae Crowder seems to capable enough of keeping Giannis in front of him starting at the top of the key, and considering Giannis would only ever shoot from deep in a halfcourt set, I’m feeling pretty confident five attempts is the absolute max we would see in this spot. Hammer the under, as this is my favorite NHA prop of the day.
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