It’s relatively early here on the West Coast but there has already been a bunch of key news that opens up value in the world of fantasy NBA on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo thanks to Anthony Davis’s ongoing absence and the Celtics resting Kyrie Irving and Al Horford. And there’s potentially more to come with updates due on key questionable players like Andre Drummond, Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler. I’ll walk you through all the key news and ownership items right now — as well as the brain bleeding conundrum of whether to trust the Bulls in another nice looking spot vs Atlanta — in today’s Switch and Hedge for the 10 game NBA slate.
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HEDGE: Terry Rozier and Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers
With Kyrie Irving added to the resting Celtics alongside Al Horford, it’s looking like a night of very popular Boston players despite a 17 point spread for them at home. Matching the field with where Terry Rozier’s ownership shakes out still makes sense in a plum matchup vs a Cavs team allowing 49.3% shooting from the floor. Brad Wanamaker should see some ownership as well thanks to Rozier’s last start seeing him not pick up a ton of usage while Wanamaker killed off the bench and then getting blowout run but Rozier remains the safer play whose $4,000 price on DraftKings should still be difficult for him not to pay off. Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart should also see a boost without Kyrie with the latter capable of wreaking havoc defensively on the iffy Cleveland backcourt and Jayson Tatum’s success the last time Kyrie sat was a big reason Rozier didn’t get enough opportunity to excel. And Aron Baynes could excel on the boards with no Tristan Thompson opposing him and Horford out. Despite two big absences, there’s likely not enough pace to go around to load up on these guys though with the Cavs still a slower paced squad (and of course the risk of decreased fourth quarter run) so pick and choose wisely.
On the Cleveland side, Ante Zizic has excelled in a number of spots ranging from the on-paper easy to difficult ones like Utah but with his price up quite a bit, I’m not so crazy about him in what should be a tough matchup inside vs Baynes and Daniel Theis. The Cavs likely need Rodney Hood or Jordan Clarkson to shoot themselves into this game to have a chance, maybe Cam Payne with the run of minutes he’s gotten lately, but it all looks really iffy here with a tough matchup and some serious blowout risk.
SWITCH: Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks
I hate the Bulls in daily fantasy. Teetering on despise. They always look like nice values, they always project decently well for me because they’ve had good swaths of success this year, and they tend to fail in every positive spot because they are bad. Bad bad. But in a game with a 223 Vegas total and a 10.9 point boost projected on the Bulls’ season average, this looks like an appealing game environment that will inevitably bite me in the ass for trusting it. But the Bulls get the biggest pace-up on the slate and the prices are pretty reasonable for these guys. Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen would be the first two I want here with Kris Dunn not too far behind. Dunn is projected to be the highest owned guy at 21% and if this game does break in a way in which the Bulls don’t crap the bed, it could be a really strong game stack. Robin Lopez started for the Bulls last time out but both he and Bobby Portis are interesting which whomever ends up starting being slightly more appealing. Chandler Hutchison is also not a terrible punt-caliber play either, albeit one with a limited ceiling and floor, but the pace-up could help him out with some more rebounding since Wendell Carter went out.
Because of the big pace-down spot Atlanta, I worry a little about loading up on their side. John Collins likely has the most upside, though his usage recently is a bit worrisome and that might make the discount on Dewayne Dedmon a bit more appealing. DeAndre Bembry looks decently bankable with a Bulls team who’s sloppy with the ball given that he’s been able to maintain over 30 minutes a game, though there’s some risk of Taurean Prince and the returning Kevin Huerter cutting into his role, though Huerter was downgraded to doubtful as of writing this. Trae Young could have some upside in the matchup while Jeremy Lin could easily heat up and seize some more minutes versus an iffy Bulls D. I’m going to have a good bit of this game but going in have to accept the fact when in doubt, the Bulls can find a way to ruin even the best opportunities.
SWITCH: Enes Kanter and New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets
With Luke Kornet sidelined for the immediate future, Enes Kanter projects as one of the highest owned plays today at 27% expected ownership and with the Rockets still lacking a true center, it does make sense especially at a $5,000 price on DraftKings. Mitchell Robinson could steal some minutes away, an interesting pivot (ditto Noah Vonleh) if Kanter gets switched to death by the Rockets and have a really tough time, but coming close to the field on Kanter’s ownership does make sense because he could feast inside if he doesn’t get exposed defensively.
James Harden remains an appealing play to me despite a $13,400 price tag on DraftKings with him not getting value last game simply because the Sixers blew the Rockets out. Harden still had a 50% usage rate in that game and as long as the Rockets don’t run away with this one, he has an insanely high ceiling here after a torrid history vs the Knicks that includes a 103.5 fantasy point game in the 2016-17 season. With just 10% ownership expected on him I’ll definitely want to be above the field here. Kenneth Faried also looks like a decent play with him getting a good run of minutes in his Rockets debut and his rapport as a pick and roll guy should only get stronger as he continues to fill in for Clint Capela. Eric Gordon’s knee issues worry me a bit but if he’s in he could be an interesting low-owned play while Gerald Green’s role has remained solid with some upside if his shot falls, which is may very well vs a Knicks team allowing 47.9% from the floor and 36.5% from deep. It’s technically another pace-up for Houston and if people are going to be scared off by one blowout vs a far better team, I’d load up.
HEDGE: New Orleans Pelicans sans Anthony Davis vs Detroit Pistons
It’s a down pace game for the Pelicans but with Anthony Davis sidelined, there’ll be a lot of opportunity to go around for the remaining bigs. Jahlil Okafor took the most advantage last time out picking up 35 minutes en route to a 20 point-10 board day. With that matchup vs Memphis looking much less appealing than this one vs Detroit, it looks like a nice spot for Okafor at only 12% ownership. I’m a little less into Julius Randle with his price so much higher and both Okafor and Nikola Mirotic cutting into his opportunity but he can still have a big day despite his elevated price at 20% ownership. Okafor and Mirotic are more appealing from a price perspective but Randle and Jrue Holiday have much higher ceilings.
Andre Drummond’s status is key to watch with his absence from a concussion likely to give Blake Griffin a shot at a huge day if the Pistons can hang in this one. With Reggie Jackson’s minutes on the downswing due to his underperformance, it’s pretty much on Griffin and maybe Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard to either shoot the Pistons into this one or get steamrolled. If Drummond is in, he’s a somewhat interesting play, possibly in tandem with Blake, and the chance of a blowout definitely decreases a bit.
SWITCH: San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers
It’s a nice pace-up spot for San Antonio as they visit Philadelphia and I’m particularly curious about a bounceback spot for DeMar DeRozan here with his price down and 12% ownership projected for him. He’s been brutal lately but still notched a 30% usage rate last time out as he’s tried to get himself back into form and it could be a nice underowned spot to get him with his price down to $7,600 on DraftKings. LaMarcus Aldridge at 5% projected ownership is interesting as well and they may need both guys to force the action to keep up with the high octane Sixers. Ditto Rudy Gay, who’s on a steady run above 30 fantasy points over his last two games with his price not all the way up yet.
The status of Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons is key to watch here with both questionable due to injury and illness respectively. The absence of either one would open up a ton of usage for Joel Embiid while the absence of both would likely open up a lot of value but also increase the chances of the Sixers getting dusted. If all three are in, Butler looks like the nicest play to me with him shooting more recently. If Butler is out and Simmons is in, I’m more into Embiid than Simmons with Simmons having really struggled vs San Antonio in the past and it not seeming like a stellar situation for him on paper. If Simmons is out and Butler is in, I think both Butler and Embiid look like solid plays who can do enough to keep the Sixers in this and potentially be an interesting game stack with the Spurs and some value out there. Watch the news updates and adjust accordingly.
HEDGE: Toronto Raptors without Kawhi Leonard vs Indiana Pacers
Coach Nick Nurse said Kawhi Leonard will sit again due to “load management” after being ruled out on the front end of a back to back last night and one would imagine a lot of people will go back to the well with the Raptors after Fred VanVleet smashed the Kings last night and guys like Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and Serge Ibaka were at least in the neighborhood of value. I’ve liked Lowry more often than not when Kawhi sits but on a slate of this size with these guys in the neighborhood of 12-20% projected ownership, I’d want some exposure but would certainly not consider anyone on Toronto to be a lock. I was mostly off of VanVleet last night, which was costly, but that sort of uptempo, free flowing game is firmly in his wheelhouse and it’s hard to imagine him having that upside in a down-pace game vs the Pacers even if he does look like a decent cash game bet. Lowry’s recent disengagement with Kawhi out is a bit concerning but as the one expected lowest owned guy out of this group and a division rival game that should be competitive, he’s a more intriguing option than he’ll likely get credit for from a lot of players today.
Victor Oladipo looks like the player I’d most want to run it back with for Indiana without a big game to his credit recently but some efforts that have come close. Darren Collison has been the better play from a value perspective recently but it feels like that should shift back Oladipo’s way at some point, perhaps in a tougher matchup like this one. Myles Turner also could be an interesting play with his usage not as high recently as it was before he went out with injury but he’s shown a nice mix of upside and steadiness lately that most players tend to sleep on.
HEDGE: Memphis Grizzlies vs Charlotte Hornets
The Grizzlies are in some degree of disarray with public reports of them taking trade offers on their stars and a hideous record over their last 20 games but this is still a nice pace-up spot vs the Hornets who don’t offer a ton of resistance defensively. Jaren Jackson is an interesting play and at 16% ownership I don’t mind matching the field there despite his usual foul trouble risks. Both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley have had big days recently and if they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder, this could be a nice spot for them to have decent days without a ton of ownership on either. Justin Holiday looks like a decent value play, albeit one with a good chunk of ownership on him with 18% of the field expected to be on him.
I’m not sure whom you’d want to run it back with on Charlotte given the ugly situation that is playing against Memphis. Maybe a fairly contrarian Kemba Walker given the Grizzlies still allow a high 37% shooting from three or Bismack Biyombo in a game style that seems more likely to benefit him than Guillermo Hernangomez. The Grizzlies side is the more appealing part of the equation to be sure.
SWITCH: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers
Dion Waiters has been putting up a ton of shots recently, just under a 30% usage rate over his last few starts, and he’s a punt worth pointing out with how he can heat up vs a Clippers team on a back-to-back. Dwayne Wade and Bam Adebayo too look like decent lower-priced plays in the matchup and with around 12-14% ownership expected for both, getting a little bit of exposure could make sense in this decent pace-up situation at home. There’s always risk with Hassan Whiteside’s minutes but he could get rolling here with the weak interior for the Clippers who just got destroyed by a comparable player in DeAndre Jordan; his success would limit Bam’s run but it seems worth noting that Whiteside is at a nice price and he still does have an outrageous ceiling if he actually gets the minutes. Josh Richardson at $100 more on DraftKings is likely the safer play who also packs some upside at that price range.
It could be a nice bounceback spot for Tobias Harris after he pretty much cocooned during a tough shooting day vs Dallas last night. Danilo Gallinari remains out and Harris should see some usage flow back his way with Patrick Beverley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having each shot 14 times in Harris’s down effort. It’s not a terribly appealing game stack here overall but a few pieces could make sense to flesh out a lineup.
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