There are six games in front of us and this seems like a slate where you’ll have to squint your eyes to find plays that really speak to your soul when playing NBA DFS lineups tonight. We’ve got some ongoing injuries to Paul George and Joel Embiid that should open up some opportunity, a few games that look underowned despite some big potential scoring, and some matchups that could end up tough to find anything useful. But I’ll walk you through what I’m seeing based upon ownership and my research thus far and tell you whether to switch to a low owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. So let’s get to it and breakdown tonight’s slate for the sake of DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
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SWITCH: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder
-The 234 point combined total is the highest on the slate and it represents a 0.8 point boost for the Thunder and a slate-high 5.4 point boost for Minnesota
–Karl-Anthony Towns’ run of three straight 70+ FP games came to an end vs Washington of all teams and a matchup with the Thunder doesn’t seem like the best spot to get that streak back on track. Towns has been under 35 FP in his two regular season games vs OKC this year and while he still has potential in any matchup, I don’t foresee going above the field’s 16% for Towns
–Andrew Wiggins has been the inverse of Towns, an absolute monster vs the Thunder this year with a 44 FP 11-for-20 day and a 64.5 FP 11-for-24 day. With Paul George expected to be out again, Wiggins’ defensive matchup should get even easier and his price would offer quite the ceiling if he achieves something resembling those performances again
–Jeff Teague hasn’t done much of note vs OKC this year but he projects to be the highest owned Wolves player; I’m fine with him with his price down but it’s not the most exciting play on Earth
–Russell Westbrook has actually been more bad than good without Paul George thus far (who was upgraded to questionable after this column was published…obviously his status is key to watch but wouldn’t hurt Westbrook per se) but at just 15% expected ownership with a cake defensive matchup that allows solid shooting from the floor and from deep as well as a slate high number of assists, this is the spot for him to get back on track
–Steven Adams has been rebounding and shooting more without George and his price is super reasonable at under 10% ownership. Adams looks like a solid play if George is out, less solid if he’s in
–Jerami Grant’s usage has been up without Paul George, 17, 14, and 11 shots in his last three games, but he hasn’t been hitting them. A bad Wolves D means this could be the day he gets there so I don’t mind taking a few shots at lineups with Grant
–Dennis Schroder’s usage has also been up without George and 40 minutes of run resulted in 47.5 FP for him the other day while shooting just 6-for-22. Schroder projects to be the highest owned played on the slate currently and I’ll likely match the field on his near 40% ownership with his current role and the beneficial matchup assuming that George doesn’t end up in the lineup. If George is in, Schroder is a mildly interesting contrarian play but not much more than that
SWITCH: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
-The 229.5 total is second highest on the slate but it represents a minor 0.2 point boost for the Warriors and a 1.3 drop on the Celtics’ season average
–Kyrie Irving’s usage has been down over the last two games since the Celtics were peak disharmony vs Portland, shooting just 15 and 11 times vs Washington and Houston. It worries me a little that moody Kyrie is kicking in and pulling a “You guys wanna shoot? You shoot then” passive aggressive move but at just 7% expected ownership Kyrie is definitely an interesting play. He put up 60 FP in the Celtics’ lone game vs Golden State this year shooting 27 times and picking up 10 assists so the potential for greatness is there
–Al Horford has come back down to Earth recently but put up 48.75 FP in the Celtics’ previous game vs GS. I like both he and Kyrie today as lower owned options because they should pull a lot of weight if the Celtics show some pride and figure things out for the matchup
–Marcus Morris had a hideous day last time vs Houston, playing just 18 minutes and shooting 0-for-3. This is a decent bounceback spot for him and with his price down, I’ll have some more than the field’s 6% ownership for him
–Jayson Tatum looks alright though the ceiling hasn’t really been there in games with Kyrie. I’d take him over Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward in that order but it’s closer than it should be given that Tatum has a secure starting role and those guys are fighting for second unit scraps
-11:50 Pacific UPDATE: Klay Thompson has been ruled out now so Steph Curry and Kevin Durant gain some appeal for me with Steph averaging 1.66 FPPM up from 1.38 without Klay and Durant up to 1.45 FPPM from 1.38 as well
–Draymond Green looks like a solid value play in what should be a competitive game; he put up 37.75 FP in his last game vs Boston and his 20% ownership seems reasonable as a decent value
–DeMarcus Cousins had 36.5 FP in just 23 minutes in the Warriors’ game vs Boston a little over a month ago and while that per-minute rate feels a little high for him in the matchup I think he’s a decent play today. Cousins’ price is kind of high though so I’d take Draymond’s discount more often than not
SWITCH: Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trailblazers
-The 216 combined total in this one is a slate low but the Grizzlies get a 3.9 point boost on their season average
–Jonas Valanciunas looks like one of the stronger center plays on the slate and while there’s some risk with how the Blazers have done a good job limiting rebounds and shots at the rim, Jonas has had a history of success vs the Blazers with no game under 5.4x value since before the 2015-16 season
–Mike Conley rested last game but he’s in a good return spot; Conley has been over 40 FP in both games vs Portland this year and his price is reasonable
–Avery Bradley is currently questionable so his status is important to watch; he’s been over 25.25 FP in his seven of his last eight games, three of them over 45.25 FP, and the only time he missed value was when he played under 20 minutes in a game vs Cleveland. He’s been a different player since joining Memphis so his 13% expected ownership seems more than fair if he’s in
–Delon Wright and Bruno Caboclo have had huge ceiling days recently but also noteworthy floor efforts and I’d find it hard to trust either. In a mass multi entry situation they’re fine
–CJ McCollum had a torrid history of big days vs Memphis before a 5-for-16 dud for 18.5 FP last time out; chasing his previous success, 47.1 FP average in his previous five vs Memphis, is an interesting idea but one that around 25% of the field is expected to be on
–Damian Lillard’s price is down enough to where he’d be a decent pivot to that McCollum ownership but his 19% expected ownership isn’t much better. I can take or leave Lillard today since it’s hard to imagine a ton of upside in this matchup
–Jusuf Nurkic has been historically bad vs Memphis but with the departure of Marc Gasol it could be a little easier inside vs Jonas Valanciunas. I don’t mind Nurkic today at lower ownership than both McCollum and Lillard
–Al-Farouq Aminu is cheap enough to play and that’s about all there is to say about him
SWITCH: Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
-This game has a 222.5 point combined total and it represents a 3.3 point boost on the Magic’s season average
–Nikola Vucevic has spiked some big upsides vs his former team in Philly in the past including a 70.75 FP triple double earlier this season. With no Joel Embiid again, Vuc could really dominate the Sixers inside and I’d be willing to pay up at just 14% expected ownership
-The Sixers’ D has rounded into form after their roster moves and I’d be reluctant to load up on the Magic as a result. Evan Fournier projects the best for me and the 5% ownership expected for him seems low even though, as I’ve mentioned here before, I view him and Aaron Gordon as mostly two sides to the same coin. They can get enough usage to hit but it likely requires the other guy underachieving
–Terrence Ross has continued his human Whack-A-Mole approach with games of 41.25 FP, 5 FP, 31.5 FP, 31.75 FP, and 7.75 FP in his last five. He should see easier defense in the second unit and his price is down so I don’t hate him but I wouldn’t load up too heavily because there’s still a decent probability he goes 1-for-12 and ends up wildly disappointing
–DJ Augustin has been solid recently with three out of his last five over 30.25 FP and while the Sixers’ limiting D should cut into his assist upside, he’s interesting as a low-owned play if the Magic do bring some offensive heat in a spot that’s technically a pretty big pace-up
–JJ Redick’s price is down after an iffy run but he has brought it vs his former team this season with 48 and 36 FP days. The 20% ownership expected for him currently seems a bit high with how poor he’s looked with Joel Embiid out but it’s not an unreasonable target
–Jimmy Butler’s been at 16 shots or over in his last three games and while he hasn’t done much with that yet, a decent shooting day could give him a big ceiling. I’d take him over Redick at the same expected ownership
–Ben Simmons has had two monster games in a row with 54.25 and 66.25 vs OKC and Golden State and though the Magic are also defensively adept, it does seem like it’s a better matchup for him to keep that run going
–Tobias Harris is expected to be the lowest owned guy of the group by a decent margin and I’d take him there; he doesn’t have as much of a ceiling as Simmons or Butler but he’s certainly been shooting enough to have a decent day. Overall this game interests me some as a game stack in the hopes it’s not as bad as Vegas currently projects
HEDGE: Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
–James Harden has had two consecutive games of 45% usage after a run in which he looked fairly hampered by neck issues and even though this matchup vs Toronto is a tough one, Harden shooting 31+ times and 18 times from deep as he did in those two seems interesting at under 10% ownership expected. Harden wasn’t great in their last game vs Toronto, one without Chris Paul a little over a month ago, but as a low owned contrarian option I think he’s an interesting play
-Paul and Clint Capela both project for 11% ownership and while I’d prefer Capela thanks to the cheaper price and decent center matchup, Paul picking up some assists and playmaking to create scoring opportunities for the Rockets does interest me a bit. Matching the field on both guys seems like a fair move
–Eric Gordon had his first big game in a while vs Boston with 46.25 FP on 11-for-18 shooting and even though I hate following that big game, this isn’t a bad spot for him again with the defensive attention likely to fixate elsewhere. It feels like a spot where Gordon and PJ Tucker may get some open looks as a result
-Assuming Marc Gasol starts again, he looks like an interesting play at his $5700 DraftKings price with two 43 and 36.5 FP in his last two as a starter. He’s not going to get a ton of usage but the rebounding and assists are there enough to offer some opportunity even in this pace-down spot
–Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry grade out similarly to me, guys with decent floors but likely not the highest ceilings in the world in this matchup. I have no issue with either but I’m not really trying to get above the field on them either
–Pascal Siakam had 43 FP with a 22 point-12 rebound game last time the two teams met and it still seems like a decent matchup for him though it’s not one where I’m dying to force him in lineups
HEDGE: Indiana Pacers vs Chicago Bulls
-The Pacers get a 4 point boost while the Bulls get a 0.8 one in a game with a 218.5 combined total
-There’s a lot of ownership expected on the Pacers’ side, including Darren Collison who’s just behind Dennis Schroder as one of the highest owned players on the slate. Collison’ price is reasonable and the Bulls’ porous defense should allow some increased assist upside but around 35% ownership feels high for a guy like Collison
-It seems like a better spot for Myles Turner at a comparable price with Domantas Sabonis still sidelined. The Bulls allow a slate high in blocks and rebounds and both of those, as well as their iffy defense, are a strong recipe for an outlier Myles Turner day
–Bojan Bogdanovic has shown more upside than Thaddeus Young recently with upwards of 53.25 FP for Bojan but both guys seem comparably good. Young feels like a safer cash game play but Bojan could spike a ceiling day thanks to the Bulls’ weak defending
–Wesley Matthews is also not a horrendous punt play for those reasons. He hasn’t broken 30 FP on the Pacers but he’s taken enough shots where he could get there
–Zach LaVine did look hampered with lower back issues after the four-OT day vs Atlanta but with a day to rest, one would hope he’d be back to full strength. LaVine’s been good in a variety of matchups and put up 46.25 vs the Pacers in January so the matchup wouldn’t scare me off of him at under 10% ownership
–Otto Porter got to rest on the second part of back-to-back vs Atlanta and he’s shown huge upside in worse matchups like his big days vs Memphis so I’m not terrified of the matchup for the Bulls and actually think a game stack of a few guys here could be interesting
–Robin Lopez appears to be a bit too priced up for me while Kris Dunn had flashes vs Atlanta that make him a somewhat interesting contrarian option with the Pacers allowing some decent PG play of late
–Lauri Markkanen also feels a little too expensive given the matchup but he’s never out of the picture entirely with steady usage and a ton of rebounding upside
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