NBA Switch And Hedge: Devin Booker Is Back And Could Erupt Vs The Knicks In MSG

We’re back to start the week with an eight-game slate that’s a mix of bad teams in great spots and good teams in spots that could be brutal, a tough bit of game-selection to parse out in tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. But we’ve got some good value plays, some studs like James Harden and all the Warriors in very contrarian spots, and another expected barnburner between the Kings and Timberwolves. I’ll walk you through the main items I think you need to monitor from an ownership and game theory perspective to have a shot at winning tonight in the wondrous world of daily fantasy NBA.

To weed through all the options on a slate like this, you should consider signing up for a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman, Fast Eddie Fear and the former FanVice guys, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you one-week free on any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now. We’re also giving away free memberships or merch from our new store to celebrate the holiday season on every show on the Awesemo YouTube this week so tune in and learn how to win!

 

HEDGE: Nemanja Bjelica vs the T’Wolves

Oh boy a revenge game (where Nemanja Bjelica previously put up 41.25 fantasy points in 29 minutes) and a spot where a guy is now getting extended run with his backup Marvin Bagley out of the lineup due to injury. It’s a back to back so there may be a faint bit of risk for anyone rostering Bjelica but with him as the expected highest owned player on the slate at 33% with his price actually down at $4400 on DraftKings, this is a tough bit of value to fade with Bjelica looking even better now that Iman Shumpert has been ruled out too. I anticipate going over the field on Bjelica because the price and situation are too valuable to pass up but I do think having a portion of lineups differentiated without Bjelica could make sense as he should only get more popular throughout the day once people smarten up. This overall could be an intriguing game stack with nice value on De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield with his usage rate up sans Bagley, Dario Saric with his minutes up (especially if Taj Gibson is ruled out), Robert Covington (his price is down but he has look a bit banged up), and Jeff Teague if he’s active with him currently marked questionable (and Derrick Rose either way, but especially if Teague is ruled out). And of course Karl-Anthony Towns is the high priced guy with a massive ceiling if this game breaks his way. This is a crazy high total, a 10 point boost on the Wolves’ season average, so this game could be highly necessary to have in your lineups.

 

SWITCH: Devin Booker and the Suns vs the Knicks

The Suns are coming back to full strength (relatively speaking) and they picked up a win in Devin Booker’s return to the lineup vs Minnesota, a spot where Booker shot 10-for-16 with 7 boards and 7 assists. This is an easier matchup and Booker’s price seems a bit low given that he returned to a substantial run of minutes. He’s currently projected for under 5% ownership and that seems crazy to me. TJ Warren looks decent despite his price on the rise given the Suns getting an 8.5 point boost on their season average from Vegas in this game (New York gets a 3.3 point boost on theirs). Even DeAndre Ayton and Mikal Bridges could get something going with the quality minutes both are getting in winnable matchups with the roster depleted for now as a result of the Trevor Ariza trade. Enes Kanter projects to be one of the highest owned players on the slate currently but he looks good on the other side of this matchup too and you could talk me into Kevin Knox, Noah Vonleh, or Tim Hardaway as well. Emmanuel Mudiay is a bit less appealing with Trey Burke back but either of those guys could be an interesting tournament play. This game may go overlooked because of the perceived quality of the teams involved or lack of pace and that seems like a mistake to me.

 

HEDGE: Blake Griffin vs the Bucks 

Blake Griffin is currently one of the expected highest owned players at 20% projected ownership and I would be more inclined to stay with the field on him than not, particularly in lineup builds that include a Bucks player on the other side to mitigate some blowout risk (Khris Middleton would be the best value but Giannis Antetokuonmpo and Eric Bledsoe have some potential if the game stays close and Brook Lopez has historically done a good job vs Andre Drummond). Overall this seems like a tough matchup to keep Drummond on the floor with the Bucks’ threes, switching, and attacking but one in which Blake will be needed to at least put forth some sort of defensive resistance and, if the game stays close, it’s likely either because of his shot or his playmaking. Reggie Jackson could be a decent play here with the amount of threes the Bucks encourage opponents to put up, a slate high 35.9 per game. He’s impossible to trust but he does project fairly well for me.

 

HEDGE: Oklahoma City Thunder at home vs the Bulls

I’m conflicted as to how I feel about this one; there seems to be some real blowout risk here with the 13 point spread by Vegas favoring the Thunder at home but the Bulls play so slow (and did it effectively vs the Spurs over the weekend with Zach LaVine out) that maybe they could keep the Thunder in range as they did just a few short weeks ago. Kris Dunn soaked up LaVine’s usage in that game while Lauri Markkanen also got a bit more usage and it seemed like an effective pairing, albeit vs a much less defensively strong Spurs team than this Thunder squad is. Russell Westbrook projects for 20% ownership currently and I would think the only way he achieves that value he needs is if Markkanen and Dunn have some degree of success, perhaps Justin Holiday too (with his price at an uncomfortable level as a result of the extra minutes he received with Jabari Parker out of the rotation). I would either load up on this game (on both sides with Paul George also not a bad looking play, ditto Steven Adams) or ignore it entirely since I don’t think playing just Westbrook is the move.

 

SWITCH: Philadelphia 76ers at the Spurs

The Sixers’ prices are down a little for this ugly-seeming matchup vs the Spurs where no one projects for over 12% ownership. Additionally, the return of Jimmy Butler to the lineup takes a good bit of usage away from Joel Embiid (as we just saw in Butler’s return to the lineup vs Cleveland, a situation that likely would have been a smash spot for Embiid sans Butler), and the risk of a big Butler day also threatens the time with the ball for Ben Simmons. But one of these guys should have a solid day vs the Spurs and while it seems to me like a Butler matchup, I think you could make an argument for Simmons to be a valuable play too. It doesn’t seem like one to load up on but one Sixer and one Spur, most likely DeMar DeRozan or Rudy Gay for me, seems like it could be a low-owned pairing with some upside that a lot of people simply won’t be on because of the perceived ugliness of the matchup despite a more respectable team total than some of the other games with far more ownership.

 

SWITCH: James Harden vs the Jazz

James Harden lighting up the Lakers last week? Expected. James Harden going for 69.5 points vs Memphis while shooting just 9-for-14 over the weekend? Not expected. Harden is rolling right now and while Utah has contained Harden so far this year, that wasn’t always the case last season. When Harden is on a heater he can absolutely overcome any matchup and with him projected for just 10% ownership in a game that could stay close, I think Harden could be a valuable pivot to make tonight if, say, Westbrook falters vs the Bulls.

 

SWITCH: Memphis Grizzlies at the Warriors

This is kind of a weird slate with a lot of the games featuring the best players in less than ideal spots while some of the less good teams are in much more obviously positive spots, like that Kings/Wolves game or the Suns/Knicks one. But there could be value in having some exposure to this game with Klay Thompson projected to be the highest owned player on either side at just 11%. The Grizzlies will likely do their best to thwart the Warriors getting out to run but that doesn’t mean there won’t be one or two guys who could exceed value in a big way, similarly to how Harden did vs these Grizzlies over the weekend. I would slightly favor Steph Curry but both he or Kevin Durant could get going, the latter likely to see a decrease in defensive quality with likely counter Kyle Anderson banged up and missing a game over the weekend. On the Grizzlies side, you could see more Mike Conley usage and Jaren Jackson also had a very solid game vs these Warriors earlier this year. It’s a risky spot because of how constricting the Memphis pace and style of play is and how the Warriors also defend well but in a competitive matchup that could be a playoff preview, it is likely to be strikingly underowned.

 

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into the Awesemo YouTube to catch me on Live Before Lock today through Wednesday. Look forward to seeing you guys then and good luck out there tonight!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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