NBA Switch And Hedge: Is It Time To Buy Into Blake Griffin’s Renaissance Or Look The Other Way?

It’s a short slate tonight competing with an absolutely hideous Thursday Night Football game so it might be a nice night to focus on the hardwood instead of the scintillating Brock Osweiler-DeShaun Watson showdown. The games are interesting and we’ll get to see whether people are fully accepting that Blake Griffin might finally be reaching his potential one team and several injuries after everyone assumed he’d ascend to that elite level. More on Blake below.

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Cleveland Cavaliers (106.3 implied points) at Detroit Pistons (114.3 implied points)

The Cavaliers have been not a good team thus far this year and it’s been hard to bank on anyone on their side after Kevin Love and Cedi Osman looked good to start the year but have really fallen by the way side over blowout losses against the Hawks and the Nets. Love seems like the safer bet to recover here and may actually be useful if the Cavs can avoid getting run off the court by the Pistons. Kevin Love got ruled out right as I was about to publish this because, of course. I’d assume more minutes end up with Larry Nance as a result, a guy who had two monster games versus Detroit last year, and it’s possible Sam Dekker ends up in the rotation just because they don’t really have a perfect Love replacement lineup fit. It’s a back to back for the Cavs without their top star but it does seem like a bit of a letdown spot for the Pistons coming off of an emotional overtime win over the Ben Simmonsless Sixers where Blake Griffin scored the most for the Pistons in years. Tristan Thompson is the lone Cav to look decent last night (but still ultimately didn’t hit value as they got run off the court) and he does seem like he’d be in a decent spot versus Andre Drummond if the game stays close. Jordan Clarkson’s 30% usage rate, highest on the team, has also been noteworthy and at 23 minutes of run per minute versus a Pistons backcourt who’s not defending much he could be a guy who gets there tonight. George Hill could also see an uptick in his role with Love out. The starter announcement here is key because Love’s absence leaves a lot of usage and rebounds on the table and even if the Cavs get smoked, there will be some value to unearth.

The Pistons have really looked rejuvenated as a result of Blake Griffin and the BBall Breakdown of his performance shows a much different Blake than we’ve seen in recent years:

I wouldn’t advocate a fade for Blake tonight given that he leads the team in assist rate, usage rate, and isn’t far behind Andre Drummond in rebound rate. The price is tough but he should be able to do what he wants versus these Cavs. Andre Drummond’s price is slowly trickling downward but I do think he still has a decent ceiling at his current price. Drummond has shot really poorly thus far this year despite his usage rate being about 10% higher than it was last season. Reggie Bullock picked up the lion’s share of run and opportunity on the wing as a guy I thought had some potential in Stanley Johnson stood in the corner looking sad for a lot of the game. Johnson could get going early and win back some court time but Langston Galloway seems like coach Dwane Casey’s preferred guy here. Ish Smith’s minutes have been really solid and at his price versus a Cleveland team who’s been the worst defensively on the slate seems like a nice spot to me, ditto Reggie Jackson even though his price and level of involvement as a ball handler has not been great with Ish’s role increasing. Without Kevin Love, letdown game or not, this game has a very realistic chance of ending up in a blowout and that could submarine the opportunity for the high priced guys on this side.

Portland Trailblazers (109 implied points) at Orlando Magic (106 implied points)

Portland gets a pace down versus a Magic team who’s been better defensively than you’d think so far this year with their size and athleticism in the front court and wings. Jusuf Nurkic seems like he should have a tough time versus Nikola Vucevic but the Magic have allowed teams to work them on the boards this year, something that could pay off for Nurkic. If Nurkic falters with Vucevic’s approach, you could see Al-Farouq Aminu be the guy to rip a bunch of rebounds as he’s prone to do from time to time. The Magic have also allowed teams to jack up more threes than the norm and that plus a matchup with DJ Augustin seem like items that should play into Damian Lillard’s hands. I’m a bit more intrigued by CJ McCollum on DraftKings given his $6,100 price and the fact that he’s shot a horrendous 35.1% this year that should trickle upwards eventually. It may come down to the defense here and if McCollum draws Augustin while Lillard gets the tougher D of Terrence Ross or Jonathon Simmons, things could go squirrelly here. One thing worth noting: The Blazers have not staggered McCollum and Lillard’s minutes at all, something that does hurt McCollum a bit without any time as the lead guard of the second unit. The amount of run Nik Stauskas has gotten recently, including all of OT versus the Wizards in Portland’s last game, is a bit surprising and while I wouldn’t bank on him, a 26 minute per game average for a $4,000 player who shoots 9 times a game is something that could be valuable.

Orlando gets a pace up versus the Trailblazers and the guy doing the most things on the court for the Magic has been Nikola Vucevic. Vuc has had some success versus Nurkic in the past and his role as an offensive facilitator does add some nice value to his position on the team. Aaron Gordon has struggled versus the Blazers in the past and I have to imagine that’s largely due to Al-Farouq Aminu having his number. Gordon’s a good enough player that he could get going tonight at a very reasonable price but it’s hard to trust. Evan Fournier should draw a good bit of interest given his price and his 29% usage rate. I’m interested in him today and the Blazers backcourt should be a nice matchup for him. I still find Jonathan Isaac hard to trust, particularly given this veteran Blazers team on the other side, but he’s had two good outings in a row and his price is appealing. Buyer beware.

Boston Celtics (109.3 implied points) at Oklahoma City Thunder (108.3 implied points)

Boston gets a pace-up and a matchup versus an OKC team whose defense has been legitimately bad thus far this season. Kyrie had one big game versus OKC last year amidst his injury struggles and this does seem like a nice matchup for him given Russell Westbrook’s lack of interest in defending people this time of year. Jayson Tatum also looks good to me and concerns about his minutes relative to Gordon Hayward don’t really resonate for me. I think as long as Jerami Grant is off the floor, Tatum should be a nice fit in this matchup getting to run and get shots in transition versus an OKC team who’s not rebounding terribly effectively thus far this year. Al Horford’s a little cheaper than he should be but there’s always risk of him not doing a ton from a fantasy perspective. Jaylen Brown is cheap given the 31 minutes of court time he’s received per game but he’s not taking or making enough shots right now.

Russell Westbrook is back and returned to his full run and usage with a near triple double versus Sacramento. This is not the type of matchup you want Russ in given the Celtics’ pace and defense but he still could be useful given his ceiling and the size of this slate. Paul George played well with Westbrook in his return but his upside is lower with Russ on the court and a matchup versus a tough Celtics D with a ton of competent wings to throw at him is not where I want to pay his price. I could see Steven Adams getting going here the most out of anyone but he’s had a couple of nice games in a row and his price is up a bit as a result. Dennis Schroder could be a sneaky play; he still got 32 minutes despite Russ’s return and will see some second unit lead ballhandler duties versus a guy more concerned about the offensive side of things in Terry Rozier. Not a play to take to the bank but Schroder will go low-owned and may have a bit of upside if his shots fall.

Denver Nuggets (120.3 implied points) at LA Lakers (117.3 implied points)

Denver gets a big time pace-up versus a Lakers team who has looked really hideous defensively thus far this year and again this looks like a Nikola Jokic smash spot. Javale McGee will fight valiantly but Jokic should have no issue running the offense, getting putbacks, and generally carving up the other side. Gary Harris looked great in limited run during the Nuggets’ last game as it blew out and other than some mild concern that Denver dusts LA here, Harris looks as good as it gets at SG tonight. Jamal Murray also looked good in limited court time last year and while Lonzo Ball is an underrated defender who should be on him, Murray can pile up points and did versus this Lakers team three times last year with 35, 46.75, and 44.5 performances. Paul Millsap is the cheapest guy on this side and even though his role in the offense is the most fluid, a matchup with Kyle Kuzma should allow Millsap to do whatever he wants when given the opportunity. He’s probably the least bankable guy out of this Will Bartonless core but I like him tonight. Monte Morris got extended run in the Nuggets’ win over the Kings due to Murray foul trouble and the blowout; he won’t see the same minutes if this game stays competitive but if it does get out of hand he could be a really sneaky play. Mason Plumlee should also be on your radar given his price and the Lakers’ inability to keep bigs from rebounds and easy scores but his minutes will be tight unless the game blows out.

The Lakers picked up their first win last night and it seems like a decent probability they get right back to losing tonight on a back-to-back coming from Phoenix. On the plus side, the starters outside of Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope didn’t see any fourth quarter action and should be slightly more fresh as a result. Kyle Kuzma’s price is up after a dude last night and from an ownership perspective I’m intrigued even though I worry a little about how he’s going to handle this Denver team that should have a variety of ways to defend him. The opportunity will be here and that may be enough on a slate this size. LeBron will likely see a good amount of work if the Lakers keep it competitive and I don’t hate playing him despite what should be a tough matchup. Josh Hart seems the most equipped to find the slivers of opportunity that Denver will allow but his price is getting up there for a complimentary player with other dudes fighting for his minutes. Javale McGee has been crushing as the lone big man of competence on the Lakers side and while this matchup worries me a little, I think you need some exposure to him on DraftKings given his price and how desperately the Lakers need him to do anything to at least attempt to stop Jokic. Lonzo Ball has been super steady but hasn’t shown as high of a ceiling as he did last season with LeBron on the team and I’m not quite as into him as a result. The price on DraftKings does make sense to me and could have a little upside if the Nuggets are slightly less solid defensively than they’ve appeared thus far this season.

There it is, one more Kevin Love-ruined article in the books. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys tomorrow for more spicy hoops takes.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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