NBA Switch And Hedge: Is Today The Day To Trust A Highly Owned Klay Thompson Vs The Kings?

It’s a nine-game slate of action today, one in which there doesn’t seem to be an unavoidable concentration of ownership for any particular matchup or player. That means it’s something of a blank canvas for you to make your choices without too much fear of other players having the same lineup construction as you. There are a few key high-ownership spots to discuss like the headlined Klay Thompson vs the Kings and the confusing bigs situation with Denver but I’ll walk you through all the main items guided by our ownership projections to help you decide whether to ride with the field or switch away from them to find glory in the world of fantasy NBA on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

To weed through all the options on a slate like this, you should consider signing up for a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman, Fast Eddie Fear and the former FanVice guys, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you one-week free on any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now. We’re also giving away free memberships or merch from our new store to celebrate the holiday season on every show on the Awesemo YouTube this week so tune in and learn how to win!

 

SWITCH: Mason Plumlee vs Oklahoma City…sort of

This is one of the last games of the night, a situation the last time the Nuggets were on the slate that burned a lot of people playing Trey Lyles expecting him to pick up the start only for Mason Plumlee to end up the far better play with the starting group when that announcement came out late. The issue is that was a game vs Memphis, one that you could say makes Plumlee a better matchup. This one versus Oklahoma City…unclear. Plumlee currently projects to be the highest owned player on the slate at 36% expected ownership but the spot against Jerami Grant seems like an odd matchup, particularly if Plumlee ends up switched defensively onto Russell Westbrook or Paul George, a situation that would likely result in the Nuggets getting killed. I would be more inclined to spend the extra $100 in my lineups to hold a spot for Lyles and then pivot to Plumlee if we find out he starts. Plumlee is solid if he starts but Lyles would be too getting 30 minutes of starters’ run.

 

HEDGE: Klay Thompson vs the Kings

Simply put Klay Thompson is just too underpriced vs the Kings today and with how good Sacramento has been, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them stay in range of the Warriors to get Klay and company their full run. Steph Curry seems a viable pivot with him projected for 1/4th of the ownership Klay currently projects for but it’s a $4,000 price difference between those two and I do wonder if De’Aaron Fox can make it uncomfortable enough for Steph where we end up seeing more swings to a wide open Klay. Klay has been shooting between 15 and 25 times per game since Steph returned to the lineup so usage is not a concern for Klay and with him likely to pop up on all the popular optimizers quite a bit today, fading him could be a tough one even on a slate of this size if he has an outlier game vs the paceful Kings.

 

SWITCH: Ben Simmons vs the Pacers

What matters more, extra usage with a player out of the lineup or a down tempo matchup vs a defensively efficient opponent? We may find out today if Jimmy Butler misses a game again with his groin injury with the Sixers against the Pacers. Simmons currently projects for 20% ownership on the assumption Butler doesn’t go but I worry with how the Pacers crowd the lane defensively that Simmons will have a tough time getting to his spots here with Indiana back to full strength defensively with Victor Oladipo back in the lineup. Simmons did play well earlier this year, putting up 45.5 fantasy points in a game where Joel Embiid was inactive but it took peak efficiency for Simmons to get there. I’d be more inclined to try out Embiid in a tough but slightly more winnable matchup vs a foul prone Myles Turner (and both get far less appealing if Butler is active).

 

SWITCH: Kevin Knox vs the Hornets

Kevin Knox entered the starting lineup last game and looked completely like he belonged. The thing that’s stuck out to me with Knox is that he is unashamed to shoot the ball in a way that many rookies aren’t, deferring to higher usage veterans like Tim Hardaway. But Knox has actually taken usage away from Hardaway instead of the inverse and while that could be fungible game to game (Hardaway is at a decent price) I think Knox will see enough run at his current price where he’s a solid value with some real upside and this spot vs the Hornets should offer some more opportunity given Charlotte’s mediocre defensive efficiency ratings. At under 10% projected ownership, I would want to be above the field on Knox, perhaps as a way to run it back for a chalky Jeremy Lamb or a pay-up spot for a heating back up Kemba Walker who went for 50 fantasy points vs the Knicks earlier this year.

 

SWITCH: Brooklyn Nets vs the Wizards

The Nets get four points on their Vegas total above their season average and they’ll also see pace and defensive efficiency boosts, a nice pairing for a team who’s been solid from a fantasy perspective at times. The choice between D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie is a tough one for me; Dinwiddie just signed a noteworthy $34 million extension after being a G League call up for the Nets just a few short seasons ago and he’s got to be carrying some positive vibes into a game vs a Wizards team giving up very high 47% shooting and 37% from three. I’m not sure you can play both guys together at this point; Dinwiddie clocked 34% and 41% usage rates in the last two games where Russell’s has backslid to 23% and 26% and there is not much, if any, shared court time. But one of these guys should have a decent day and with Russell pegged for 3% more ownership than Dinwiddie currently, it could be a logical move to pivot to Dinwiddie with how the offense seems to be ebbing towards him (and I would have no issue running it back with a 2% owned John Wall with the success he’s had vs Brooklyn this year and him looking back to form last game vs Boston).

 

SWITCH: Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic vs the Raptors

The price of Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic are down quite a bit for this matchup with the Raptors and as a result, both guys currently project for over 20% ownership. I get wanting to play the guys rather than the matchup but I really don’t see this being a strong matchup for these guys. Perhaps Nurkic can overpower the Raptors inside with Jonas Valanciunas out but the Raptors’ active D should do a good job denying entry passes to Nurkic and should be all over Lillard as he attempts to bomb from deep. If the ownership trickles down in updates later in the day, this is a better play. But with both guys expected to be chalk in a game with a down Vegas total, I would rather find somewhere else to attack on a slate with this many games.

 

SWITCH: Atlanta Hawks vs the Celtics

The Hawks may very well get blown off the floor on the road at Boston, even without Al Horford available. But stacking this game as though it stays close could be a valuable spot. John Collins has been on a tear, Kent Bazemore has been a solid play since Taurean Prince went out, Dewayne Dedmon is seeing big minutes…if these guys can cobble together enough success to stay in the game, a full run for Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris could be highly beneficial. Aron Baynes’ minutes limit is something to watch because he killed these very Hawks getting extra run in a game without Horford a few weeks back. If Jaylen Brown is ruled in, currently questionable with an illness, he also intrigues me with his big usage rate lately and if he sits, Marcus Smart looks more solid too. Dedmon is currently the chalkiest play on this side with 19% projected ownership with everyone else much closer to 10% so owning pieces of this game on the assumption it stays within range into the fourth could be a really good situation to get ahead of the field.

 

SWITCH: Cleveland Cavaliers at Home vs the Bucks

I like the Cavs to keep this one close, or at least close enough for some people to extract value. Larry Nance still seems too cheap as the lone big of any substance left on the roster and he did well in this spot vs Milwaukee just a few days ago, a lot of which came after Tristan Thompson left with his foot injury. Nance not starting is a bit of a concern but he should still see enough run, particularly in this matchup where Channing Frye really has no shot of keeping up. The rotations are a bit of a mess for the other Cavs with Matthew Dellavedova and David Nwaba in the mix but one of Jordan Clarkson, Alec Burks, or Collin Sexton should be able to get something going. I also like Khris Middleton on the other side to find his shot after missing a lot over the last two games as the only reason he hasn’t hit value; the Cavs let teams shoot 48.5% from the floor and 36.9% from deep, a very solid get-well spot. Lastly, Giannis Antetokuonmpo has had a nice run of success vs the Cavs, around 60 fantasy points per game in all matchups last year. Hard to say if that’s because of the LeBron effect (which is obviously no longer there) but this is still a strong spot for him after a quiet last few weeks.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into the Awesemo YouTube to catch me on Live Before Lock today. Look forward to seeing you guys then and good luck out there tonight!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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