It seems unlikely we’ll have an injury-based sword of Damacles hanging over our head like Kawhi Leonard’s status on a back to back last night so a big 11-game NBA slate like this one could be more straightforward than it seems. There is some key injury news to watch out for in Boston’s game vs Washington, lineup news to keep an eye out for with the Knicks, but hopefully nothing too slate altering ahead of us. This many games offers us a world of options so let’s get through the main items and opportunities I’m looking at for tonight’s wonderful journey into the world of fantasy basketball on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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HEDGE: Julius Randle vs Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City has not been a charitable matchup to anyone on the opposing side but with Nikola Mirotic to miss a few games, Julius Randle is going to be the primary beneficiary and he already wasn’t priced up enough for his move to the starting lineup. But we could see rotations now staggered slightly to allow Randle more minutes on the floor without Anthony Davis and that’s where he could really shine, a spot where he averages 1.57 fantasy points per minutes. Cheick Diallo should benefit a bit as well in terms of extra minutes, noteworthy at $3,000 on DraftKings, but in a competitive game like this one should be vs OKC, Randle should see more minutes and have to bring it to fight off a tough Thunder squad at home. As the currently projected highest owned player on the slate at 37%, I would not want to fade Randle tonight.
SWITCH: Russell Westbrook and Paul George vs New Orleans
Russell Westbrook currently projects for 20% ownership while Paul George projects for less than half that and both those numbers seem exceedingly low for this matchup. The Pelicans will offer little defensive resistance for the Thunder while they have more than enough firepower to stay in this game. I would load up on this game tonight with George and Westbrook together (a contrarian lineup construction people never do due to their higher prices together) as well as individual smatterings of them run back with variations of the aforementioned Randle, Anthony Davis, and Jrue Holiday. I don’t mind Dennis Schroder either and with the scoring in this game I think all of these guys have a shot at hitting value, possibly in concert.
SWITCH: Daniel Theis vs the Wizards
Daniel Theis was a big chalk disappointment the other night but going back to him in this game vs a Wizards team with very little to oppose him inside should be a wise move with no ownership expected on him at all right now. The status of Aron Baynes is key to watch because if he’s active he’s a better play at a few hundred cheaper but if both Baynes and Al Horford are out (the latter has been ruled out for the next few games) then Theis has a nice runway vs a team who’s been bad. There’s always some risk of foul trouble for Theis (and perhaps worth some Robert Williams exposure as a hedge) but Theis intrigues me quite a bit in a nice bounceback spot. Watch the status of Baynes close to lock and be ready to pivot to one of these guys (and either way Kyrie Irving is the go-to play on this side with Horford out regardless of which Celtics big you end up with).
SWITCH: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons vs the Nets
Without Jimmy Butler in the lineup, this is a smash spot for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Embiid’s price is coming down and he should get the ball just where he wants it with that ballhandling time for Butler off the table as he recovers from his groin injury. The Center vs the Nets spot is a tougher spot than it was in previous years but it’s still a winnable one and that extra usage floating around could result in a big time game for Embiid at 26% projected ownership. Simmons will also benefit from more playmaking time and the Nets’ slowed down approach should be enough to keep them in the game. Running it back with D’Angelo Russell (who went for 38 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists vs Philly last time out) or Spencer Dinwiddie (who had 42.5 fantasy points in the same matchup vs Philly) may make some degree of sense, though it seems unlikely they reach the heights of their 127-125 score in that last game. I’d also watch for extra minutes for Furkan Korkmaz, a guy who’s lit it up when given opportunity who should see some extended run sans Butler and has averaged 0.96 FPPM with Butler, Markelle Fultz, and the traded Dario Saric, and Robert Covington off the floor.
HEDGE: Larry Nance vs the Knicks
Tristan Thompson will be out a few weeks after being on a hell of a roll in a key position for these Cavs. I don’t know that Larry Nance will find himself as involved in the offense as Thompson was where they really force fed him the ball but even in his usual role without Thompson taking boards off the table (and seeing a ton of run as he did when Thompson went out last game, playing every minute down the stretch), Nance could have gigantic upside at a super reasonable price. At just 22% projected ownership as of writing this, Nance looks like a stellar play but I would have no issue even if he becomes chalkier throughout the day. Alec Burks will also soak up some of Tristan’s rebounding left behind and I’m not ruling out that Jaron Blossomgame could be more of a factor with the minutes left behind after dropping 11 points and 10 boards along with really good activity last game, perhaps over Ante Zizic. And on the Knicks’ side, watch out for their starting lineup changes. If Kevin Knox is starting as expected, he should be a strong play even with losing some usage to the Tim Hardaways and Enes Kanters in that group and his departure from the second unit could offer some more opportunity for Damyean Dotson as well.
SWITCH: The Timberwolves vs the Kings
Karl-Anthony Towns and Derrick Rose look to be in a very nice spot vs this Kings team, one that looks underowned with Rose the projected highest owned guy at just over 10%. There are a lot of strong center plays, as discussed thus far, but Towns has a massive ceiling here and has gone over 50 fantasy points in three out of his last four games as well as over 70 fantasy points once. Rose’s usage has been back up and he looks like the better play than Jeff Teague with how Teague has ceded some of his usage back to the resurgent Andrew Wiggins. Teague is still in consideration because he will have some assist upside with the pace and spacing here and even Robert Covington could get it going at his price if he starts shooting threes like he has for points this year. But overall I’d go Towns and Rose and then those other guys in some order and running it back with a bunch of Kings like De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, who are all super affordably priced, makes a lot of sense for me in this under the radar high potential game stack.
SWITCH: Kawhi Leonard vs the Warriors
Kawhi Leonard was ruled out late last night, a bit of a pain in the ass for anyone playing on DraftKings or FanDuel to try to cobble together something that made sense and captured the Raptors’ opportunity without him. But with Kawhi likely to be back in the lineup for the back half of the Raptors’ back to back in a game vs the Warriors, it’s a good spot to go back to him knowing he’ll likely bring it in this marquee matchup while currently projected for super low ownership. Kawhi put up 37 points and 8 boards in their meeting last time and while the game will be a tougher one with the Warriors back at full strength, this is a nice spot to go back to him. Steph Curry would be the player I’d want to run it back with on the Warriors’ side after he missed the first game vs Toronto but either way I think this game should stay competitive and you can make your choice between him or Kevin Durant (who went for 76 fantasy points in that game vs Toronto without Steph) in a matchup that should go down to the wire.
SWITCH: The Mavs vs the Atlanta Hawks
 There isn’t more than 15% ownership projected for anyone on Dallas’s side while there is a good amount of ownership expected for the Hawks, a bit of a weird situation given that the Mavs are without Dennis Smith again. Jalen Brunson will be one of my core value plays tonight with him very likely to pick up some easy peripherals and scores in this type of game vs a team like Atlanta, perhaps not the highest ceiling but a great way to load up on some of the studs in smash spots. Luka Doncic will also be in consideration for me and he’s been hitting value without shooting well, something that should be less of an issue for him vs an Atlanta team allowing 47% from the floor and 37.6% from deep. DeAndre Jordan could have a nice underowned day with how many shots the Hawks miss, their lack of ability inside, and the pace. Harrison Barnes or Wesley Matthews could easily shoot themselves into the matchup while JJ Barea is going to break the backs of the Hawks’ second unit for as much run as he sees. All the core Hawks guys look like compelling pieces to run it back with Jeremy Lin and Taurean Prince out; I’d pay up for John Collins and still have no issue with Kent Bazemore or DeWayne Dedmon while DeAndre Bembry has been strong off the bench. And we have not seem an outlier game for Trae Young in a while, perhaps a spot vs his fellow high profile rookie trade piece is the one to bring it out of him.
SWITCH: The Pistons vs the Hornets
I think the studs in this game could be valuable and underowned tonight, particularly with Kemba Walker’s price back down and his usage and shooting returning closer to his early season form. I would not point chase Luke Kennard here because a lot of his opportunity came as a result of Blake Griffin’s absence but I think a Kemba-Blake-Andre Drummond grouping could be interesting if this one stays close. I also don’t hate Reggie Jackson here. There are much sexier games on the slate but it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of these guys here on a tournament winning lineup at much lower ownership than they should have.
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Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into the Live Before Lock show today for me and Fast Eddie chewing up this slate on the Awesemo YouTube. Look forward to seeing you guys then and good luck out there tonight!!
