It’s another abridged three-game slate on a Tuesday with some teams on a back to back, James Harden vs a team he’s historically slaughtered in the Blazers, and Kawhi Leonard meeting a team expected to compete for his services this offseason in the Clippers. It doesn’t seem likely we’ll have major slate-altering news today (though it is the NBA so that’s never out of the question) but after a really nice first day for this new format for the Switch and Hedge, I’m hopeful that some of these thoughts on how to approach lineup construction tonight could help a lot of you guys get ahead of the field.
It’s a short slate with limited options so it’s a good time to try out a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman, Fast Eddie Fear and the former FanVice guys, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you one-week free on any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now. We’re also giving away free memberships or merch from our new store to celebrate the holiday season on every show on the Awesemo YouTube this week so tune in and learn how to win!
HEDGE: James Harden and Clint Capela vs the BlazersÂ
The Rockets get a 4.7 point boost on their team total from Vegas in a matchup that also provides the biggest pace-up on the slate, a fine combination to trot out James Harden and Clint Capela with both projected for around 35% ownership. Harden is one of three players to get an A in points and B in value for this slate from Awesemo and he’s put up over 60 fantasy points in seven out of his last ten games vs the Blazers. The usage is there and I have no reason to look away from him today. Capela has been less solid in the past vs Portland with Jusuf Nurkic getting the best of him more often than not over the last few outings and it might be more logical to take Nurkic at a slight savings and less ownership. But Capela’s been better this year and with Nurkic towards the top end of his price while Capela is down a bit on where his has been, I think it may be a better spot to ride with the chalk and Clint.
SWITCH: Jusuf Nurkic vs the Rockets
That said, I will undoubtedly have lineups with both Clint Capela and Jusuf Nurkic because they are two of the stronger center plays on the board and Nurkic’s track record vs the Rockets is hard to ignore. Damian Lillard can get going in any matchup and he’s interesting with just 15% ownership projected but Nurkic likely has the best matchup here with how the Rockets are limiting three point makes and attempts with their down pace and uglied up approach. The whole Trailblazers side doesn’t look super appealing to me but Nurkic is the one I could talk myself into the most, perhaps Al-Farouq Aminu too in lineups without Nurkic or Capela under the assumption that both may cancel each other out a bit on the boards.
SWITCH: Chris Paul vs the Blazers
This also looks like a decent spot to consider Chris Paul as a contrarian play alongside either one of Harden and Capela (or both). These are desperate times for the Rockets and with Eric Gordon expected to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, I think there could be some value in going away from Gordon to someone like Paul, particularly if the Rockets start Eric Gordon as is currently being reported. Gordon averages 0.65 FPPM in 420 minutes of court time with Harden this year and while some of that is due to his putrid 36.6% shooting on the year, his usage would take a dive in that starting group while Paul will still be a primary facilitator for the first unit and parts of the second unit without Harden
HEDGE: Core Guys in the Suns-Spurs Game
The Suns are on a back to back heading into San Antonio, a team who’s looking slightly less hideous with a couple wins in their last two games. It’s a pretty big spread in this game so some players may avoid the matchup out of fear of a blowout and on a three game slate this game staying close could be a difference maker. The three most playable Suns in De’Anthony Melton, DeAndre Ayton, and Trevor Ariza are all around 20% projected ownership while DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are projected for closer to 35% so playing a competitive game with the Spurs giving up generous shooting percentages of 48.3% from the floor and 36.7% from three could be important. I would still avoid TJ Warren at this time with him likely to see mid-20 minutes max based on his run before getting ejected last night while on a minutes limit yesterday so some exposure to Mikal Bridges or Josh Jackson could make some degree of sense as well. I also wouldn’t sleep on Rudy Gay and Jakob Poeltl in this spot with Davis Bertans likely to be out again and even Marco Belinelli has a little bit of upside in this matchup if things break his way.
HEDGE: Kawhi Leonard vs the Clippers
Assuming Kawhi Leonard doesn’t get ruled out of this front half of a back to back, this is exactly the kind of matchup where you’d want Kawhi, a competitive game with a team who defends well across the board but not at his position. The Clippers should be able to keep this one close and Kawhi getting four quarters of usage is where you want him to be. I’d greatly prefer him to a comparably owned Kyle Lowry, whose price is down to reflect his role with Kawhi active but still may see him have a hard time getting to 5x value. I could also see wanting some exposure to Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam in that order, two guys who really don’t have a natural matchup to inhibit them on the opposite side. If Kawhi sits, then load up on your Lowry, Siakam, and whatever Raptor strikes your fancy because the usage left behind will open a ton of opportunity in a matchup like this one.
SWITCH: Patrick Beverley vs the Raptors
Patrick Beverley currently projects for 24% ownership vs the Raptors with Lou Williams possibly out after suffering a hamstring issue yesterday vs the Suns and I’d be more inclined to look elsewhere today. There will be a lot more usage available if Williams is ruled out and it seems unlikely that Beverley would be the guy to soak that up. It seems more likely you’d get more of Montrezl Harrell, not in a great matchup but with his price down after a few dud efforts or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander picking up more minutes. It’s not crazy that Ty Wallace may get back in the mix today too but that’s a flimsier play. I’m just not crazy about Beverley and his low points per minute and usage, particularly vs a Raptors team who seems unlikely to beat themselves.
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Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into the Live Before Lock show today for me and Josh Engleman chewing up this slate on the Awesemo YouTube. Look forward to seeing you guys then and good luck out there tonight!!
