This week has seen the largest Vegas totals of the year with many games’ over/unders routinely hovering in the high 220s up to the high 230s and today is no exception with almost every game expected to have some high-octane scoring on tonight’s NBA DFS slate. Some news to open up value would be helpful so keep an eye on how that develops throughout the day and closer to lock but right now we have some games that look extremely compelling, some injury situations which could affect everything (*cough Giannis minutes limit cough*) and a lot of interesting angles to consider from ownership and data standpoints. I’ll walk you through everything I’m seeing on tonight’s slate and tell you whether I’d hedge and try to just match the ownership expected on some of the guys or switch to/away from certain games that seem to be over or under-owned in our ongoing quest to conquer daily fantasy basketball on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
Learn more about today’s slate by trying out a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman and rankings from Fast Eddie Fear, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you 50% off the first month of any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now!
HEDGE: Sacramento Kings vs LA Clippers
-The highest combined total of the day belongs to this game at 238.5 with the Kings getting a 6.8 point boost on their season total and the Clippers getting a 3.8 point boost on theirs
–Willie Cauley-Stein is the projected highest owned player on the slate at 33% currently and he does project pretty well versus the center-deficient Clippers. He should have a fairly decent ceiling in this matchup so I don’t hate the move but it’s hard to love a guy that highly owned at center, though rostering him is a little more palatable due to none of the big name centers playing on the slate
–Bogdan Bogdanovic is the expected to be second highest owned King and with Marvin Bagley sidelined with a knee sprain, he should pick up some extra minutes and usage. The Clippers limit threes at a decent clip, allowing a slate low 29.7 attempts and 34.1% shooting from deep, so that could be a little tougher for him and Buddy Hield to get to their peaks. The high pace and total though make me comfortable with him just at slightly less ownership than WCS
–Harry Giles also should see a bit of a minutes boost without Bagley and that makes him a compelling punt at the near-minimum price given his solid 1.08 FPPM on the year
–Harrison Barnes put up 38.5 FP in 41 minutes last game and while he’s been the most boom or bust on the Kings, he too should benefit from the lack of Bagley minutes so I don’t hate him at fairly reasonable ownership. I’d take him over De’Aaron Fox at comparable ownership
–Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, and Landry Shamet look to be really solid matchups on paper for the Kings and all three are appreciably less owned than the guys on the Kings’ side. Lou definitely has the highest ceiling of the group – he put up 38 FP despite 2-for-17 shooting in their last matchup – but all three have a shot to be solid value in their own ways (boom/bust high ceiling play for Lou, decent floor/decent ceiling play for Gallo, reasonable punt for Shamet)
–Montrezl Harrell looks like a nice low owned guy to consider with him having had some success vs Sacramento with 35, 48.25, and 35.75 FP games thus far this year. The minutes should be there for him and with the Kings egregiously bad at rebounding he or Ivica Zubac as the starter will have a good shot to heat up inside
HEDGE: Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers
-This is the second highest total on the slate at 238 combined points, a 3.6 point boost for Milwaukee and a 4.6 point boost for the Lakers
–Giannis Antetokuonmpo played just 24 minutes last game after a late announcement his minutes would be limited and while those can trickle up and this is a great matchup, I’d find him hard to play with any confidence
-The question is whether Giannis’s potentially abridged minutes open value for the other guys; Eric Bledsoe blew up last game with a 67 FP day but we also saw more usage for Khris Middleton shooting 20 times and Malcolm Brogdon put up 36.25 FP, his highest output since January 21st. All of these guys should benefit at least a little even if Giannis is down just 5 minutes on his season average
–Nikola Mirotic also benefitted from Giannis’s lessened load with a 42 FP 7-for-14 shooting day and he looks like a solid matchup vs the Lakers too at under 5% expected ownership. He might be closer to low 20s minutes than the 27 he got with Giannis limited but he still has per minute upside
–LeBron James has been over 64 FP in four out of his last five games and has averaged 39.8 minutes in that stretch as the Lakers fight for their playoff lives. The Lakers may find some tough defense today and that could spur LeBron to push his usage and playmaking even higher, making his 20% expected ownership worth at least matching the field on
–Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma both look like decent plays at comparable prices and while Ingram has been the better play recently, the Bucks’ league high three point attempts allowed would lead me to slightly favor Kuzma who is unashamed to gun from deep. Ingram has been a better all-around player from a real life and fantasy perspective recently but the ability to heat up from three could mean an outlier day for Kuzma
–Reggie Bullock as well should get all he can eat from deep. Not the best price on him but the opportunity to get going is there even though I would certainly not load up on him
–Rajon Rondo started last game and put up 48.75 FP despite 5-for-15 shooting, picking up 16 assists in the process. Rondo is a volatile play, and you’d need the Lakers to go small again with Kuzma at center, but his playmaking could help them get looks if the shooters’ shots fall. I’d prefer him in lineups where you have at least one other guy who’d heat up from deep
SWITCH: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
-This is the third highest total game coming in just behind the others we’ve discussed thus far at 237 combined points, a 5.3 point boost for New Orleans and a slate-high 9.8 point boost for Phoenix
–DeAndre Ayton looks like the best play with the Pelicans interior still mostly shaky. Ayton put up 39 FP vs the Pelicans in the beginning of the year and with him a much steadier commodity his 21% ownership seems worth possibly going even higher on
–Kelly Oubre also should have a pretty high ceiling with where this team total is and his ability to pour in points. I’d take him over Josh Jackson even though Jackson is a better value but this could be a spot where both guys get going
–Devin Booker hasn’t really shown as much of a ceiling as you’d think recently but this is a really good spot for him to hit some heights with a big pace-up and solid defensive matchup even though he stunk vs New Orleans back in November with a 28.75 FP, 4-for-12 shooting day. He’s questionable right now with a big toe injury so his status is key to watch for his being an interesting play and opening up usage for the other guys if he’s out
–Tyler Johnson has been solid in his last three games but I’m not sure how big of a ceiling he has in the matchup if Booker is active. I’m okay with Tyler but he feels more like a cash guy than a player with tournament upside
–Julius Randle may not force the action as much as he did vs his old team in New Orleans but this is a pristine matchup for him where he could explode if he gets rolling. The Pelicans do have another game tomorrow so there is a chance their minutes get limited in some way but I’d currently be comfortable at least matching the field on his 16% expected ownership
–Jrue Holiday also looks to be in a really good spot at a reasonable price with the same back-to-back minutes risk. He’s well worth the field’s 18% expected ownership if he gets his full run but he hasn’t shown a crazy upside recently at his current price
–Elfrid Payton likely doesn’t have the ceiling of these other two but the minutes should be there and maybe this is an interesting revenge spot for him after a mediocre experience on their roster. At just 6% expected ownership, I’m willing to take that leap in the hopes of Payton going wild
-This hurts to say and I very much don’t trust it given his low minutes but Anthony Davis is close to playable with where his price has dropped to. A little taste of exposure in your lineups makes sense but playing someone getting 21ish minutes a game is not a hill I want to die on tonight
–Frank Jackson got 29 minutes last game and responded with 25.5 FP. With the back to back, there’s a chance he sees another big allotment of minutes. At the near minimum, that could be interesting (ditto Cheick Diallo who could take some of the big minutes if Randle were limited)
HEDGE: Boston Celtics vs Washington Wizards
–The 233.5 combined total in this game may go underrecognized with all of the other big total games but this represents a 9.1 point boost for the Celtics
–Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, and Marcus Morris all are coming up a lot for me in crunches right now and with the Celtics having lost six in a row, this seems like a day where they should throw the kitchen sink at the Wizards to pick up a win. I think the Wizards can keep this close with how they’ve looked so I have no issue having all of these guys in a lineup, though I’d prefer Horford with his combo of matchup plus ceiling. Kyrie pushed his usage rate to 36.1% last game as he attempted to singlehandedly shoot the Celtics out of a loss and him doing that today is not an opportunity to sleep on either
-I think one of Jaylen Brown or Gordon Hayward will heat up in the second unit vs this defensively brutal Wizards squad and while I’d slightly favor Hayward, based on how they’ve played recently with Hayward looking mostly poor and Brown looking good, it’s probably a coin flip
–Bradley Beal has been playing out of his mind recently and only a blowout slowed him down vs the Nets last game, though the score ended up closer than it seemed in garbage time. Beal’s been at 40+ minutes and 22+ shots recently and taking him in a contrarian spot at just 15% ownership is an interesting play with how good the Wizards have been and bad the Celtics have been
–Tomas Satoransky didn’t chip in much with scoring but did pick up 10 assists vs the Nets; I think he’ll need to force some action here to open things up for other guys so he’s an interesting tournament play for me at 3% ownership
-The wings here are all in play again even though I’d be reluctant to have multiples of them given the matchup; Trevor Ariza is still the safest guy in terms of minutes, Jabari Parker went nuts last game in just 21 minutes at low ownership, Jeff Green put up 44 vs the Celtics earlier this year and may have some resentment towards his old team still…they’re all options, likely in that order for me, but none is going to feel terribly comfortable
–Bobby Portis should start again and he doesn’t seem to have as high of a ceiling in the starting group as he did in the second unit but he’s an okay play. I do wonder if Thomas Bryant may continue his bench success today, 55 and 30.25 FP in his last two games with mostly unencumbered bench run
SWITCH: Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
-A decent 229.5 combined total in this game and while the 5 point boost for Atlanta looks good, the 9.5 point boost with the Bulls’ implied total is right up there with the highest on the slate
–Lauri Markkanen is priced all the way up but he’s still got a ton of upside in this matchup with the rebounding he’s shown since the Bulls and Hawks last met. It’s a big pace-up and he should get some really nice looks
–Zach LaVine has been an underrated steady play with upside and with him likely to be the most popular Bull at 16% expected ownership I think some exposure and possibly going above the field is a good idea
–Otto Porter has been a solid play with upside recently and while he’s been near peak efficiency and his reliance on steals and blocks to hit value worries me a little, he does look like another solid play at pace vs a team who can get sloppy with the ball at times, a slate high 18.1 turnovers per game
–Robin Lopez was underwhelming last game but did see 40 minutes; that type of run vs the Hawks could lead to a rare ceiling effort from Robin and while his price is a little high, he’s been good recently and scored well so I have some trust for him
–Kris Dunn doesn’t do a lot and hasn’t shown much upside recently but at his price and just 3% expected ownership he can be a decent play given some of the huge success point guards have had vs Atlanta
–Trae Young has been an absolute monster lately scoring 62 FP in his last game with 36 points and 10 assists on just 9-for-22 shooting and he’s been over 49.5 FP in four out of his last six games. It’s a pace-down so that’s not ideal for Trae but with the field expected to have him at 22%, I’d want to at least get there with the upside he’s shown even when not shooting too well
–John Collins is still at a super reasonable price with a ceiling of note (that he hasn’t hit in a while) so he’s in play but not the most stirring dude ever
–Kevin Huerter interests me a little with his price now down to $3500 on DraftKings. There’s too many bodies on the wing to love any of the guys but he and Taurean Prince seem like decent value plays with upside
-Foul trouble hampered Dewayne Dedmon last game and knocked him down to 19 minutes but he still put up 26.5 FP despite that. He’s in a good matchup again here and with just 2% ownership expected for him he could have a nice low-owned day
HEDGE: Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
-This game has another 229.5 combined total with the Nets getting a 4.3 point boost on their scoring average from Vegas while the Hornets get a 2.2 point boost on theirs
–Kemba Walker’s usage has remained extremely high and though the Nets are rounding into a solid defensive unit, he can heat up and has been at least decent vs them this year. 22% of the field is expected to own Kemba and that seems fair even though I’d sliiightly prefer Trae Young
–Nic Batum has really responded well to Jeremy Lamb’s move to the bench, averaging 36.2 FP in his last four, though he did have just 26 FP vs these Nets in that run. Lamb struggled too putting up just 6.5 FP in 19 minutes while Tony Parker had a random outlier day. I don’t know that either Batum or Lamb has a super high upside here but they both project well for me and I think playing their bounceback is logical, much more so than point chasing Parker
–Marvin Williams is a solid play with a questionable ceiling who was the best from a value perspective of the wings in their last game vs Brooklyn. He looks fine to me but, again, hard to see a super high ceiling day. I’d take him over Cody Zeller at this point with Zeller’s price still up so high thanks to that big game vs Golden State
–Spencer Dinwiddie is back in the rotation and that makes D’Angelo Russell’s recent run of success, Wizards blowout aside, a little worrisome. The 13% ownership for Russell seems fair while Dinwiddie is at least a little interesting as a tournament play in his return
–Caris LeVert will be just 2% owned after putting up the dud of all duds last game as a popular play with 1.5 FP in 20 minutes. As old time stock men say, “Buy stock when there’s blood in the streets” and I think targeting a LeVert bounceback is interesting at a little bit of ownership given a decent price and matchup
–Jarrett Allen and Ed Davis look comparably good again with the same situation as always; one of them CAN heat up and smash value but more realistically they both just have decent days and don’t give you enough to win a tournament
-Coach Kenny Atkinson said it’s a goal to get Joe Harris some more looks from three after he really didn’t get going vs the Wizards. A concerted effort to get him more shots interests me a little here given that he’s shot a close to league high 47.7% from deep but puts up less threes per game than Russell, Allen Crabbe, and even Spencer Dinwiddie
HEDGE: Toronto Raptors vs Portland Trailblazers
-Despite a decent 227.5 combined total, this is the expected lowest scoring game on the slate by Vegas
-There isn’t a ton of ownership in this game so this is one I would consider attacking if you want to be super contrarian. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum both look like decent plays if they can get going vs the tough Toronto D. You’re playing their ability rather than the matchup and while it’s not a great spot, teams have put up big points vs the Raptors at times this year
–Jusuf Nurkic is also a bit interesting with no one seeming particularly equipped to handle him at center. His 7% expected ownership is lower than both Lillard and McCollum and he’s at a reasonable price that affords him some upside
–Mo Harkless has been over 27.5 FP in his last four games since Evan Turner went out and while he’s no sure thing, he’s a cheap guy on a slate without a ton of value currently who’s shown some consistency. Tough matchup but some exposure seems fair
–Kawhi Leonard is one of the steadiest plays in the league with a ceiling that doesn’t get too high so I have no problem with him if stacking portions of this game but he’s never a dude to force in too much
–Kyle Lowry was en route to a big day in a game alongside Kawhi, a more common occurrence lately with him previously only spiking big games with Kawhi on the sidelines, before the Boston game got out of hand and played him off the court. In a competitive matchup, he’s an interesting low owned play if stacking up portions of it
-The situation with the bigs still concerns me, including Pascal Siakam whose price is up after a 46 FP day vs Boston. It feels like Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol are taking just enough away from each other, and Siakam in theory at least from a ceiling perspective, that they don’t feel too safe to roster. I’d likely avoid the whole situation
—
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and watch out for my short-form Four Corners video and me on Live Before Lock on the Awesemo YouTube later today!
