It’s another slightly-bigger-than-usual Thursday NBA slate with some interesting value options presenting themselves already thanks to Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry ruled out for rest in a game vs the Kings. I’ll break down which guys you want to pivot to there as well as more thoughts on the slate, including chalk Bobby Portis vs Denver and an intriguing high paced spot between the Kings and the Hornets in Charlotte that currently looks to be mostly underowned, in the hopes of guiding us all to fantasy NBA glory on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo in today’s Switch and Hedge.
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HEDGE: Toronto Raptors value vs Phoenix SunsÂ
With Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry out as well as OG Anunoby, a player who’s seen a big game or two this year with both those guys’ usage off the table, there’s a lot to like about the remaining Raptors even though they don’t offer much of a discount at their prices. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka are currently projected to be the highest owned guys with both over 30% projected ownership and that seems about right to me given the cake matchup, fact that Vegas still currently has the Raptors for a 5.3 point boost on their season average without the stars in the lineup, and the amount of usage left behind without Kawhi and Lowry in the lineup. Their absence leaves about 50% usage on the table that could flow a variety of ways but those two do seem like the safest. Danny Green strikes me as a little risky with how he can rely on Kawhi to set him up but he’s a consideration. I’m also interested in Pascal Siakam despite being the highest priced guy here; he’s had some huge ceiling days with these guys out (and sometimes with at least one of them in) and this matchup vs Phoenix is one where he should be able to pick up some peripherals as well. Norman Powell tends to shoot a lot when others are reluctant to so he interests me at 18% projected ownership while Delon Wright and Greg Monroe would be the final two guys I could see having some use here just because of the massive opportunity in front of them.
Devin Booker might be an interesting play, albeit not too contrarian, with 17% projected ownership and the Raptors defense likely to suffer a bit sans Kawhi. TJ Warren is on a run of mediocrity but could get going if this game does see some points put up and DeAndre Ayton could be solid here as well with no one who’s a perfect match for his size and athleticism. It’s an appealing potential game stack scenario with some mixes of these guys and maybe even De’Anthony Melton. There is some risk given the Suns’ occasionally ugly play and a not terribly high paced environment but the stars being out may align things nicely if it breaks the right way.
UPDATE 2:56 PACIFIC: So Kyle Lowry just got ruled back in and is starting because of course, probably dying for a nice day to pad stats. Lowry is pretty close to must-play status for me with the success he’s had with Kawhi on the sidelines and the matchup couldn’t grade out better for him. I’m more comfortable with Lowry, still very comfortable with Siakam and Ibaka, and much less interested but not totally opposed to Fred VanVleet now.
HEDGE: Bobby Portis and Chicago Bulls at Denver NuggetsÂ
Currently Bobby Portis projects to be one of the higher owned plays on the slate at 43% largely thanks to absence of Wendell Carter from the lineup for a few weeks and even though he’s burned me a few times recently with his bench run that seemed appealing but ultimately didn’t see him get enough minutes, I’m fine coming close to where the field is ownership wise. Portis’s usage can get heavy and if he’s seeing a full allotment of run, it’s hard to imagine him not getting there vs Denver despite the blowout potential and tough defensive spot. The Bulls have been downright bad lately and faltered even with spots where it seemed like they could have nice games but the injection of Portis into the lineup may actually give be a bit more interest in Zach LaVine with another credible and aggressive scorer there who will take usage away from him but also some defensive attention. I may try to stack this game up some on the off chance the Bulls keep it close because their prices are pretty appealing while four quarters of run for Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap could be really valuable vs this bad Bulls team while the backcourt getting more crowded with the return of Will Barton and likely Gary Harris makes that spot tougher to parse out.
Jabari Parker also interests me in the second unit despite him also looking like a fairly chalky play; assuming Portis picks up the start, Parker will have even more usage to himself in the Bulls’ second unit and he’s also been a part of groups getting blowout run as well. At $3600 on DraftKings, the 24% projected ownership on him seems reasonably well-deserved and logical.
SWITCH: Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets
The biggest total on the slate tonight belongs to this game and although the Hornets have been up and down lately and the Kings can run away from teams, I like this spot a good bit as a potential game stack without anyone projected for over 26% ownership in the matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is the expected highest owned guy at that 26% number and he always looks like a nice play with his price where it is currently. Paying up for Kemba Walker could be a nice move with a pace-up spot and his usage on the rise while Jeremy Lamb is at a reasonable price for how he’s been this year as well. I’m less inclined to point chase the nice 38 fantasy point game Nic Batum just had vs these Kings a few days go but it’s worth noting with where his price is and Marvin Williams’ usage isn’t too high but he’s a steady play without much of a ceiling.
The Kings’ prices are a bit tougher but I could see wanting to push some exposure to a De’Aaron Fox or Buddy Hield with both guys expected to be under 10% owned. Marvin Bagley has been earning more minutes and he too could be interesting here. On a five-game slate like this, a game stack seems like an appealing option and with the game with the highest team total underrepresented, pivoting to this game and loading up could be a tournament winner.
HEDGE: Victor Oladipo and Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ersÂ
Victor Oladipo has been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy recently and even the eye test hasn’t looked great with him really not pushing action anywhere close to how he did last year. The Pacers haven’t been much worse off for it but it’s really hard to guess when Oladipo will excel. Example: He has one 65.5 fantasy point day in early November vs these Sixers and one 34.25 point game vs them a month ago, a 14% difference in usage rate in both games. The Pacers are more offensively competent and confident so that could be a factor but with Oladipo projected for 21% ownership I can’t see wanting more than the field on him but also would be afraid to miss out on one of his outlier days if the Sixers bring it out of him in what should be a competitive matchup. The other Pacers look decent too at far less ownership, Myles Turner in particular looking like someone who could have a big day or find himself hampered by foul trouble defending Joel Embiid (he’s been downright bad in both games vs Philly this year but I’d be more inclined to trust in Turner bouncing back than Domantas Sabonis lucking into more minutes). Thad Young too has brought it to his former team in the past so even with a risky game environment, I do think some exposure close to the field makes sense.
Embiid would be the Sixer I want the most even though his 73 fantasy point day vs them earlier this year may drive up ownership a bit (maybe mitigated by the questionable tag he received as of writing this) while Ben Simmons interests me at under 10% ownership on a run of three games over 55 fantasy points (including last game in which he got there in 26 minutes vs Minnesota). Jimmy Butler is a consideration in a competitive game with tight defense and coming close to matching the field on his 25% ownership seems about right as well.
HEDGE: Paul George and Russell Westbrook vs Los Angeles Lakers
Russell Westbrook still can’t shoot but it seems like he’s figuring out the fantasy success side of things recently with some additional usage overall and in a situation that should be the highest paced on the slate, I have no issue with him especially with only 24% projected ownership with precious few high priced guys who can break the slate. Paul George’s usage has been down a bit with Westbrook’s on the way up, under 30% for his last three games, but he too looks like a fine play and facing his native Lakers certainly could bring a little more out of him as it did earlier this month in a 15-for-29 shooting day at Staples Center. Steven Adams and Jerami Grant are also in play though they’re definitely a bit higher priced than I’d like to see vs a Lakers team whose defense has been improving sans LeBron James.
The changes to the Lakers’ rotation mostly benefitted Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and he’s probably my favorite play on this side with his starter minutes and how he’s likely to be the shooter with room to operate vs the Thunder’s defense. I’ve also got no issue with Lonzo Ball and while Kyle Kuzma will likely continue to lose some usage to KCP, his price is down a bit where I’m more comfortable paying the extra money for him than going down to Brandon Ingram with both guys expected to be around 25% owned.
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